emp17344

7 ms·

1.
by emp17344 7d ago
Frankly, these mathematicians have more credibility than the sociopaths running OpenAI
2.
by emp17344 8d ago
You can expect the OpenAI defenders to be out in full force here.
3.
by emp17344 9d ago
I think we know enough about reinforcement learning to tell that it won’t be able to entirely replace human mathematicians. All of the techniques used by these AI firms are well-studied.
4.
by emp17344 12d ago
You can imagine whatever you want, but I don’t see why that means we have to take it seriously.
5.
by emp17344 13d ago
Pretty sure I’m not the delusional one…
6.
by emp17344 13d ago
Then why is unemployment around 4%? You believe we have AGI and yet it can’t do anyone’s job?
7.
by emp17344 13d ago
This is silly sci-fi fiction. You guys are inventing scenarios to spook yourselves with - it’s nonsense.
8.
by emp17344 13d ago
Or it’s an indication that progress has plateaued. But instead of accepting this, you’d rather we just throw out the entire benchmark.
9.
by emp17344 13d ago
Can’t wait for 3 months from now when they declare they actually really do have AGI this time, please guys just believe us
10.
by emp17344 14d ago
They call it out but don’t address it. How is that helpful?
11.
by emp17344 14d ago
Well, the man in charge of OpenAI is a notorious pathological liar. Is that not enough in and of itself to cast doubt on claims like this?
12.
by emp17344 14d ago
Circles like HN? Seems like a lot of folks here bought into it in the thread discussing the article.
13.
by emp17344 14d ago
Didn’t they also hire the guy behind Moltbook?
14.
by emp17344 15d ago
Of course people (apparently) care, as evidenced by this thread. But should they? I certainly don’t think so.
15.
by emp17344 15d ago
This is like a grade school-tier insult. The entire article is about predictions, of course I’m talking about them. I just think the obsession with the accuracy of short-term predictions is absurd and pedantic.
16.
by emp17344 15d ago
AI enthusiasts have turned this into a religious war, like it or not. Far too many people here have tied their entire sense of self and worth to the success of AI, and will attack anyone who challenges their narrative that AGI is imminent.
17.
by emp17344 15d ago
Everyone is always throwing darts at a dartboard when making predictions. I don’t know why you think this is a critique that applies exclusively to Zitron.
18.
by emp17344 15d ago
Ok, but it also means we shouldn’t immediately discredit people who make incorrect short-term predictions, because those are really hard and no individual person consistently gets them right. You can worship at the altar of short-term predi
19.
by emp17344 15d ago
Who cares about predictions to this extent? They’re practically always incorrect or flawed in some way, and most people understand and accept that. No need to be so neurotic about it.
20.
by emp17344 15d ago
You are being extremely dramatic, and no one should take AI 2027 seriously. Must be tough to live in constant fear like this.
21.
by emp17344 15d ago
There were no consequences the first time, so I imagine it wasn’t very stressful at all.
22.
by emp17344 15d ago
I honestly don’t understand why you care so much about the “rigor of predictions”. Short-term predictions are almost always at least somewhat inaccurate, no matter who’s doing the predicting. Directional accuracy strikes me as far more impo
23.
by emp17344 15d ago
So does everyone else, including prominent AI enthusiasts and tech CEOs. And most of those predictions are wrong, because predictions are really hard.
24.
by emp17344 15d ago
Why is Zitron’s repute evaluated entirely on the basis of failed predictions? Predictions are incredibly hard. AI enthusiasts and thought leaders have made so many demonstrably incorrect predictions it’s hard to keep track. Based on this m
25.
by emp17344 15d ago
I agree. But it seems like this site has become so radicalized that this measured take is now anathema.
26.
by emp17344 15d ago
Some of you have gone off the deep end. You’re living in a fantasy world where text predictors are secretly conspiring to kill you. It’s not healthy.
27.
by emp17344 17d ago
I’m talking about the community of economists, not internet randos who quite clearly know nothing about reporting economic data.
28.
by emp17344 20d ago
Are you citing your own uninformed statement to support your claim?
29.
by emp17344 20d ago
Do you know how hard it is to convincingly fabricate economic data? The BLS is under constant public scrutiny. If data fabrication were occurring at the level you seem to think, everybody would know.
30.
by emp17344 20d ago
Based on what evidence? The unemployment rate is very low, and has been for a long time. Why should we take your word for it when it blatantly contradicts real economic data?

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