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I honestly don’t understand why you care so much about the “rigor of predictions”. Short-term predictions are almost always at least somewhat inaccurate, no mat

I honestly don’t understand why you care so much about the “rigor of predictions”. Short-term predictions are almost always at least somewhat inaccurate, no matter who’s doing the predicting. Directional accuracy strikes me as far more important.

minimaltom 15d ago
Take a look at the thread below yours, but basically if the prediction has to be wishy-washy or just interpreted as 'direction', theres way more noise and way less signal. Why not just state the underlying trend/forces instead? Why lean into the online culture of predictions and do it badly. Bad (form) prediction: OAI is gonna be wobbly in a bit Good (form) prediction (could be totally wrong): OAI as we know it today is going to collapse due to running out of money around/at 20xx. And sure we can be pedantic about detail, but the litmus test is: is the prediction useful if you had a crystal ball and you could know if it was true/false a priori?
- emp17344 15d ago
  Who cares about predictions to this extent? They’re practically always incorrect or flawed in some way, and most people understand and accept that. No need to be so neurotic about it.
  - minimaltom 15d ago
    That’s the crux of it!! You don’t have to agree but people do care, and I think (ignoring the obvious partisans) that’s the two dominant camps of commenters on this thread. One pony’s trash is another pony’s treasure, so I guess here one persons pedanticism is another persons hobby.
    - emp17344 15d ago
      Of course people (apparently) care, as evidenced by this thread. But should they? I certainly don’t think so.
      - minimaltom 15d ago
        Its a fair question to ask! and ive landed on the opposite answer lol
  - ChickeNES 15d ago
    Apparently you do, or you wouldn't keep asking?
    - emp17344 15d ago
      This is like a grade school-tier insult. The entire article is about predictions, of course I’m talking about them. I just think the obsession with the accuracy of short-term predictions is absurd and pedantic.
- dofm 15d ago
  > OAI as we know it today is going to collapse due to running out of money around/at 20xx. Now what happens if that prediction is published in a popular, widely-consumed way? Pundits and analysts who are widely read, talking about a prediction that OpenAI will run out of money by a given date, will change when OpenAI runs out of money. This is why directional accuracy is more valuable.

minimaltom 15d ago

Take a look at the thread below yours, but basically if the prediction has to be wishy-washy or just interpreted as 'direction', theres way more noise and way less signal. Why not just state the underlying trend/forces instead? Why lean into the online culture of predictions and do it badly. Bad (form) prediction: OAI is gonna be wobbly in a bit Good (form) prediction (could be totally wrong): OAI as we know it today is going to collapse due to running out of money around/at 20xx. And sure we can be pedantic about detail, but the litmus test is: is the prediction useful if you had a crystal ball and you could know if it was true/false a priori?

emp17344 15d ago
Who cares about predictions to this extent? They’re practically always incorrect or flawed in some way, and most people understand and accept that. No need to be so neurotic about it.
- minimaltom 15d ago
  That’s the crux of it!! You don’t have to agree but people do care, and I think (ignoring the obvious partisans) that’s the two dominant camps of commenters on this thread. One pony’s trash is another pony’s treasure, so I guess here one persons pedanticism is another persons hobby.
  - emp17344 15d ago
    Of course people (apparently) care, as evidenced by this thread. But should they? I certainly don’t think so.
    - minimaltom 15d ago
      Its a fair question to ask! and ive landed on the opposite answer lol
- ChickeNES 15d ago
  Apparently you do, or you wouldn't keep asking?
  - emp17344 15d ago
    This is like a grade school-tier insult. The entire article is about predictions, of course I’m talking about them. I just think the obsession with the accuracy of short-term predictions is absurd and pedantic.
dofm 15d ago
> OAI as we know it today is going to collapse due to running out of money around/at 20xx. Now what happens if that prediction is published in a popular, widely-consumed way? Pundits and analysts who are widely read, talking about a prediction that OpenAI will run out of money by a given date, will change when OpenAI runs out of money. This is why directional accuracy is more valuable.