avionical

7 ms·

1.
by avionical 10mo ago
Annual $10k prediction contest on a variety of topics. $3k prize pool for the best question submissions.
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Suggest questions for the 2026 ACX Forecasting Contest(astralcodexten.com)
1 points by avionical 10mo ago|1 comments
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by avionical 1y ago
$15,000 for accurate forecasts about the Trump admin.
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The prediction platform Metaculus is open source now(github.com)
9 points by avionical 2y ago|0 comments
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by avionical 2y ago
There's calibration, but you can also just see contests where you pit the community aggregate against individual forecasters and see who wins. The Metaculus aggregate is really dominant in this contest of predicting outcomes in 2023, f
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by avionical 2y ago
Open to all in the US, but $12.5k is earmarked for undergrad forecasters
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by avionical 2y ago
Specifically, what autonomous replication and adaptation (ARA) abilities will they possess and how will they fare against industry benchmarks.
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by avionical 2y ago
He's never lost a bet (with academics, researchers, pundits, etc.) for 17 years of public betting. You can see his current open bets here and predict whether he'll win.
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Metaculus gets 99.5% accuracy in Scott Alexander's ACX 2023 Forecasting Contest(astralcodexten.com)
1 points by avionical 3y ago|0 comments
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by avionical 3y ago
Unclear, but the predictions appear to be better on things like US elections than prediction markets or 538: https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast...
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2024 US Election Forecast Map. You can predict %s for each state(metaculus.com)
12 points by avionical 3y ago|0 comments
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AI summaries of the factors that will determine if some future event happens(metaculus.com)
1 points by avionical 3y ago|0 comments
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by avionical 3y ago
No, it's also 'AI and Machine Learning,' 'Artificial Intelligence, and 'Forecasting AI Progress.' The list of resolved questions is roughly this: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?status
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by avionical 3y ago
And you may want to check the weighted Metaculus Prediction if you haven't already.
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by avionical 3y ago
I find it useful for a few different non-coding work tasks, and I don't think I'm unusual there.
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by avionical 3y ago
I wouldn't say AGI in 10 years is predicting an obvious outcome. And the same goes for many other questions on the site.
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by avionical 3y ago
What would be good evidence of a high-quality user base with the relevant skills? A transparent, well-calibrated track record?
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by avionical 3y ago
There are several AI categories on the track record page; make sure you're not just selecting the one or you'll miss a lot. There's a careful analysis of the overall track record on AI questions here: https://www.
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by avionical 3y ago
Anyone can forecast, sure. But there's a large body of research on the accuracy of aggregated forecasts and on the ability of forecasters to become more accurate with practice. (Thinking here in particular of work by Mellers & Tetl
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by avionical 3y ago
True, though clearing up some of the murkiness is part of what forecast questions like these are for, with their explicitly spelled out resolution criteria.
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by avionical 3y ago
It sure seems like people are getting value from the current crop of tools: https://fortune.com/2023/06/15/nine-of-ten-developers-using-...
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Metaculus's Forecast Fridays(metaculus.com)
1 points by avionical 3y ago|1 comments
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by avionical 3y ago
Professional forecasters and researchers share analyses and predictions on topic areas like AI alignment, longevity research, and geopolitics.
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by avionical 5y ago
One of the very first questions the site ran. It's a totally different platform and community in 2022.
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by avionical 5y ago
The platform indicated an invasion before other prediction markets and before the vast majority of commentators. It's not just now coming around.
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Dashboard for aggregating / visualizing Covid-19 predictions(pandemic.metaculus.com)
2 points by avionical 6y ago|0 comments