antasvara

10 ms·

1.
by antasvara 12d ago
It's a spectrum. Walmart makes a coffee mug for like $2. Louis Vuitton will sell you one for $385. But there's an entire class of coffee mugs in the middle, where you're paying more than it "should" cost, but less t
2.
by antasvara 14d ago
>You can't 'blame' the AI, as it can't be held accountable. Seems like more of a semantic distinction IMO. Yes, I can't technically "blame" the AI because it's not accountable. But what word would
3.
by antasvara 14d ago
I don't know, it feels like "reading a claims summary and classifying the type of claim" should be the bread and butter LLM use case? Not that executives are blameless for pushing AI everywhere, but we should also be able to
4.
by antasvara 15d ago
An exclusive theatrical window is one of the big reasons to go to a movie theater: you want to see a movie before it's available on streaming. Removing copyright seems like it would harm theaters pretty significantly.
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by antasvara 1mo ago
I think the point is more "why is the outcome of an event like an election considered a commodity" and not a question of the value of event contracts? Like, why would the same agency regulating wheat futures also be responsible fo
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by antasvara 1mo ago
It's humans from other banks/funds bidding on the block of stock. As far as timing, for this situation it's basically overnight for regulatory and price reasons. Regulatory because there are legal margin requirements for leve
7.
by antasvara 1mo ago
They might not have known it was SA specifically. That being said, they definitely knew a large fund with leverage was buying these stocks. The mechanism here (and I'm not an expert) is: 1. SA wants to buy stock with leverage. You do t
8.
by antasvara 1mo ago
Even in the optimistic case where SA did have alpha, the position sizing was way out of whack. Based on the volatility of the stocks they were buying, the Kelly Criterion meant you'd need to expect a 900% annual return on the stock be
9.
by antasvara 1mo ago
Just to jump in: Citadel buying this portfolio says nothing about how Citadel feels about the stocks. It's the bread and butter of large HFT hedge funds; if you see someone that has to sell stock, you leverage the fact that you can
10.
by antasvara 2mo ago
Sure, a college student can tell you if a company is making or losing money. But there are ample examples of "good" companies crashing because they didn't react to shifts in the market, which requires projecting into the futu
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by antasvara 2mo ago
> a "good" CEO is just one that keeps their hands off the levers of power, doesn't rock the boat or fuck anything up, and quietly lets a good company perform How can you tell if a company is good? Because trillions of doll
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by antasvara 2mo ago
From the financials, it's a little of both? Memory is the acute issue causing their struggles; their most recent quarter saw a gross margin of 4.5% (that's revenue minus the direct cost of producing the cameras, divided by the rev
13.
by antasvara 2mo ago
>the ones who don't want it enough will go away, and the ones that do will want it enough that it's worth your while.. Counterpoint: if you think you need to pay for my attention, that's a negative signal for what you&#x27
14.
by antasvara 2mo ago
The paradox is that the person most likely to do extra work is the person you want to hear from least. If someone felt the need to pay (for example) $5,000 to talk to me, it's probably because they don't feel they have a chance of
15.
by antasvara 2mo ago
I feel like you're ignoring the size of each of these impacts. Sitting around a campfire once a month will likely increase your cancer risk. But it increases your cancer risk way, way less than smoking a pack of cigarettes every day. S
16.
by antasvara 2mo ago
> This person probably had the best diet in the world and received top tier care, so how did he end up with something like that? If you lower your chances of dying of every common thing, your relative chance of dying of a rare or incurab
17.
by antasvara 3mo ago
>What else would this be but intelligence? Imagine if your AI didn’t know what words mean and couldn’t do math and you still tried to make the assertion that it was just as intelligent. Counterpoint: If I don't teach a kid to read a
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by antasvara 3mo ago
Is there a reason you expect IQ to be unbounded? Feels like there are physical constraints, at which point you're sampling from a truncated normal distribution (or similar).
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by antasvara 3mo ago
The abstract quite literary cautions against the way you're interpreting the data. The relevant quote: > Notably, these gains do not uniformly translate to a rise in underlying GMA, suggesting the presence of domain-specific impro
20.
by antasvara 3mo ago
My understanding is that Musk doesn't have a controlling share of Tesla. So by the letter of the law, a SpaceX acquisition would qualify as a change in control (because we've gone to a new majority owner).
21.
by antasvara 3mo ago
>What would it mean if SpaceX buys Tesla though? Does the combined market cap count? That would be wrong. I took a look at the proxy statement as they have it outlined in this [0] document (Proposal 4). As currently formulated, Musk has
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by antasvara 3mo ago
True, but "a better apple" is unequivocally less impactful than "you no longer have to walk to the river any time you want to drink a glass of water." I think it's easier to see if you think in 20 year increments. T
23.
by antasvara 3mo ago
Yeah, it gets weird when you start trying to compare human versus AI energy demands because you can turn a computer off, but you can't really turn a human off. Most studies indicate that humans can do 3-4 hours of high-level knowledge
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by antasvara 3mo ago
>The innovations aren't better versions of things we had in the past, they are more so unique new inventions. Plumbing is not electricity is not globalized food chains is not computers. This is only sort of true. Plumbing is an impr
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by antasvara 3mo ago
The parent comment is quoted as: > in one assignment I remember comparing the energy outputs between the human and robot equivalents of different tasks, whether or not the robot was humanoid in how it was designed So I think the point
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by antasvara 3mo ago
This point is valid. However, lifestyle improvement rate is something that's slowing over time because of physical constraints. For example, the vehicle mortality rate is 1.44 per 100 million miles driven. That's down 17% from 200
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by antasvara 3mo ago
Studies on grandmaster chess players indicate that at most you burn 10% more calories when engaged in deep thought than when you're at rest. So the energy "attributable" to an hour of knowledge work is like 10 calories (ave
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by antasvara 3mo ago
> but there were no privacy features before. so we’re actually still much better off than we were for hundreds of years before this. One notable thing we have today that we didn't have 100 years ago is a computer. Before, you could
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by antasvara 3mo ago
I assume (and this is a big assumption) that the US government will be focused on limiting access to the latest model, not necessarily everything smarter than Fable 5. Having access to the frontier model from a year ago (Sonnet 4.7-ish) wou
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by antasvara 3mo ago
Your intuition is largely correct. For any given level of adaptive problem solver, approximately 55% of those people share the same literacy level (i.e. a Level 1 adaptive problem solver is also a Level 1 for literacy around 55% of the tim

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