RA_Fisher

5 ms·

1.
by RA_Fisher 3d ago
Yes, you're referring to transfer learning. It's an empirical question that also depends on the nature of activities.
2.
by RA_Fisher 7d ago
Oof. It’s so sad when businesses with in-demand products suffer from a lack of successful economic mechanism design.
3.
by RA_Fisher 17d ago
Europeans use American iPhones and Android bc they wouldn’t add a backdoor. Didn’t the UK want a backdoor added?
4.
by RA_Fisher 1mo ago
Yes indeed, I call it the revenge of statistics! Pseudoreplication rears its ugly head once again. Nonparametrics are certainly useful, but once you know things about the DGP, it’s often possible to do something “traditional” that’s better
5.
by RA_Fisher 1mo ago
AI be used to make reviewing it easy, eh?
6.
by RA_Fisher 2mo ago
Exactly, it’s unrepresentative of AI. It’s damaged AI.
7.
by RA_Fisher 2mo ago
We need a new Pelican, bc earlier models were disadvantaged relative to later models. It's not a very useful comparison anymore.
8.
by RA_Fisher 2mo ago
I agree. I don't think there's much public information out there about the due diligence involved in his hiring.
9.
by RA_Fisher 2mo ago
Fair. An interesting question: how quickly can we detect something without being thwarted by anisotropy / the multiplicity of backward paths? ie- retrodiction Let’s organize the temporal order a bit. This is what some research turned u
10.
by RA_Fisher 2mo ago
It’s well-known Brockman and his wife donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., the main super PAC supporting Donald Trump. The main higher-level factor is our patriarchal culture (and more bad things tend to stem from places where that’s intense).
11.
by RA_Fisher 2mo ago
This is super, but students will have access to AI during the test in real life, so it's ironically less realistic to remove it (thinking of the "... GPT-4 actually harmed subsequent performance by 17% when the tool was removed ..
12.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
So Opus might be correct?
13.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
An LLM disproved a famous 80-year-old conjecture.
14.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
True, during Covid when blue collar in-person maga unemployment skyrocketed, the Fed could have avoided increasing the money supply. I wish they had, bc we all had to pay the resulting inflation cost. How were thanked for it? Tons of Consti
15.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
There’ll always be boundary tending, true. Only a portion of CS deals with stochastic functions though, whereas all of statistics is stochastic. That makes a big difference, bc the world is complex. Information theory doesn’t even incorpora
16.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
Programming is a lot easier than statistics bc it’s deterministic, whereas statistics is stochastic (that extends and encompasses deterministic functions). AI speeds up learning, so I bet that’s what you’re noticing with R. As an aside, the
17.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
Companies should encourage AI use in interviews to avoid this issue.
18.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
The gold standard and metalism generally, leads to all kinds of unproductive panics bc the quantity of money can’t wisely be adjusted to the situation. It’s a bad trade off, bc it’s well-known in the literature that inflation-targeting work
19.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
I used AI to unpack it a bit here: https://statwonk.com/econometricians-can-build-decision-engi... I'd generally point to econometrics and statistics applied to business. The key activity is causal inference and then t
20.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
Econometricians can solve it, bc we can create rigorous models that map causal inputs to output. It’s extremely advanced technology, though, and most CEOs would rather rent seek / camp than give up some decision-making power (and very
21.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
It may be that they’re protecting their time.
22.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
True, but high-quality education, whether personal or formally, tends to produce high-quality knowledge. Yes, companies pay for what’s perceived to create revenue and profit (and yes, skills are a major factor in that).
23.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
I’d certainly not say it’s everything, look at all the highly-paid mediocre CEOs. Education has rigorously been shown to lead to higher incomes and wealth on average.
24.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
Yup! I was a part of the learn to code industry. I am proud of that, bc I know my worker helped a lot of marginalized people gain wealth and power (woo!). My own occupation, stats and econometrics, requires years of higher education to even
25.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
Agree, AIs are better decision-makers on average than people (just look at the grifters we've given power to). These are machines that can perform more advanced mathematics than even the most advanced mathematicians.
26.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
Sadly I think this post will mislead people, bc the difficult truth (for many) is that software engineering isn't that hard and that's why AI can easily substitute that layer (lower barriers to entry than widely believed).
27.
by RA_Fisher 3mo ago
I don’t think there are other models near Fable’s capabilities.
28.
by RA_Fisher 4mo ago
Ah thank you for updating me there.
29.
by RA_Fisher 4mo ago
In what ways? LM Arena has Opus 4.7 w/ 1567 -/+ 7 vs. 1505 -/+ 10 from GPT-5.5 Codex in code. I'm currently using both. Admittedly my recent experience tilts Opus now 4.8, but you and others have my interest piqued re: G
30.
by RA_Fisher 4mo ago
Ah okay, can it work on a whole repo in an agentic way?

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