7 ms·

Replacing people leaves no room for people.

eru 5d ago
Even aggregate employment of translators has held up well in the US. Even though machines do a much better job of what used to be the most basic job of a translator.
user43928 5d ago
Out of 3.5 billion employed people globally, only 10% are professionals. Do you really think making labor obsolete and giving humans back their time is such a bad thing?
- JoshTriplett 5d ago
  When cars made horses obsolete, it didn't go so well for horses. In the short term, AI is disempowering the vast majority of people in favor of a very small subset. In the also way too short term, AI is disempowering all people.
  - user43928 5d ago
    I have a more optimistic outlook on the abilities of our governments as well as the motivations of rich people. I believe we will distribute the fruits of AI's labor at the very least to the extend where everyone can live comfortably. No one has an interest in putting large parts of society on the streets in some sort of dystopia.
    - JoshTriplett 5d ago
      You are assuming that people remain in control.
      - Marha01 5d ago
        And you are assuming they don't remain in control. Which of you is right? We don't know yet, but I don't find the arguments of card-carrying doomers any more convincing that those of card-carrying singularitarian utopians. Historically though, technological improvement has lead to large increases of living standards for the overwhelming majority of people, so I think that past trends support the utopian view more than the doomer view.
        JoshTriplett 5d ago
        The anthropic principle applies here: anyone warning about an existential risk will by necessity never have precedent to point to. I am not assuming humans don't remain in control, but rather, I am not axiomatically assuming there's any inherent reason we will.
        Marha01 5d ago
        > The anthropic principle applies here: anyone warning about an existential risk will by necessity never have precedent to point to. We have precedents of people warning about existential risks in the past, when the warnings turned out to be false, or overblown. In some cases, such overblown warnings led to serious negatives for society (demonization of nuclear power).
        JoshTriplett 4d ago
        Yes, that is precisely my point. Any timeline with humans flourishing will never have a past history of a correct prediction of existential risk, unless you're willing to pay attention to the counterfactuals. Those counterfactuals are important, though. We do have a history of averted disasters, albeit not as large. Ozone hole, Y2K, think about things that seemed overblown at the time, and consider whether they were actually overblown or whether there was a concerted effort to successfully avert them.
        stale2002 4d ago
        Awfully convenient isn't it? To invent a whole class of arguments that by definition can't be falsified. You can argue for basically anything if you then tack on the excuse of "Well the world would have ended already if it came true, so by definition I won't have evidence for it"
    - fn-mote 4d ago
      > I have a more optimistic outlook on the abilities of our governments as well as the motivations of rich people. Wow. Only on HN. Also apparently not from the US? Or Russia? This does not reflect what I see in my government.
  - eru 5d ago
    > When cars made horses obsolete, it didn't go so well for horses. I'd guess horses today have on average a better life than back then.
    - JoshTriplett 4d ago
      The comparatively few that still exist, perhaps.
- Anonyneko 5d ago
  I think the concern is that humans who are given back their time won't have any means to make use of that time, or even possibly means to survive. The resources will be concentrated in the hands of the few more than ever.
Marha01 5d ago
> Replacing people leaves no room for people. I am much more than my job. If I receive basic income, please replace my job ASAP! And if I don't receive a basic income in a world where AI is capable of replacing all human jobs, then the problem is not AI, but the powers that be.
- rvba 5d ago
  You know your basic income will be some minumum to make you shut up, while the owner class will own everything?
  - eru 5d ago
    Hasn't happened so far.
  - Marha01 5d ago
    As long as it's enough to afford my current living standard, I don't care. Let Musk own the entire Mars, as long as I receive enough to live relatively comfortably and don't have to work anymore. And if I don't receive enough, then again: the problem is not AI, but powers that be. And there are various solutions for that... and none of them are helped by me being anti-AI.
    - swader999 5d ago
      You won't have any real power in that scenario, you'll just be shut off.
      - Marha01 4d ago
        Human-level AI hosted locally will give everyone much more power and wealth than they have currently. I don't care if I will be shut off from Musk's Mars lair. And Musk has no reason to care that robots take good care of me here on Earth, when he has his Martian utopia.
  - azan_ 5d ago
    Who will pay for services performed by AI? How will they make money?

eru 5d ago

Even aggregate employment of translators has held up well in the US. Even though machines do a much better job of what used to be the most basic job of a translator.

user43928 5d ago

Out of 3.5 billion employed people globally, only 10% are professionals. Do you really think making labor obsolete and giving humans back their time is such a bad thing?

JoshTriplett 5d ago
When cars made horses obsolete, it didn't go so well for horses. In the short term, AI is disempowering the vast majority of people in favor of a very small subset. In the also way too short term, AI is disempowering all people.
- user43928 5d ago
  I have a more optimistic outlook on the abilities of our governments as well as the motivations of rich people. I believe we will distribute the fruits of AI's labor at the very least to the extend where everyone can live comfortably. No one has an interest in putting large parts of society on the streets in some sort of dystopia.
  - JoshTriplett 5d ago
    You are assuming that people remain in control.
    - Marha01 5d ago
      And you are assuming they don't remain in control. Which of you is right? We don't know yet, but I don't find the arguments of card-carrying doomers any more convincing that those of card-carrying singularitarian utopians. Historically though, technological improvement has lead to large increases of living standards for the overwhelming majority of people, so I think that past trends support the utopian view more than the doomer view.
      - JoshTriplett 5d ago
        The anthropic principle applies here: anyone warning about an existential risk will by necessity never have precedent to point to. I am not assuming humans don't remain in control, but rather, I am not axiomatically assuming there's any inherent reason we will.
        Marha01 5d ago
        > The anthropic principle applies here: anyone warning about an existential risk will by necessity never have precedent to point to. We have precedents of people warning about existential risks in the past, when the warnings turned out to be false, or overblown. In some cases, such overblown warnings led to serious negatives for society (demonization of nuclear power).
        JoshTriplett 4d ago
        Yes, that is precisely my point. Any timeline with humans flourishing will never have a past history of a correct prediction of existential risk, unless you're willing to pay attention to the counterfactuals. Those counterfactuals are important, though. We do have a history of averted disasters, albeit not as large. Ozone hole, Y2K, think about things that seemed overblown at the time, and consider whether they were actually overblown or whether there was a concerted effort to successfully avert them.
        stale2002 4d ago
        Awfully convenient isn't it? To invent a whole class of arguments that by definition can't be falsified. You can argue for basically anything if you then tack on the excuse of "Well the world would have ended already if it came true, so by definition I won't have evidence for it"
  - fn-mote 4d ago
    > I have a more optimistic outlook on the abilities of our governments as well as the motivations of rich people. Wow. Only on HN. Also apparently not from the US? Or Russia? This does not reflect what I see in my government.
- eru 5d ago
  > When cars made horses obsolete, it didn't go so well for horses. I'd guess horses today have on average a better life than back then.
  - JoshTriplett 4d ago
    The comparatively few that still exist, perhaps.
Anonyneko 5d ago
I think the concern is that humans who are given back their time won't have any means to make use of that time, or even possibly means to survive. The resources will be concentrated in the hands of the few more than ever.

Marha01 5d ago

> Replacing people leaves no room for people. I am much more than my job. If I receive basic income, please replace my job ASAP! And if I don't receive a basic income in a world where AI is capable of replacing all human jobs, then the problem is not AI, but the powers that be.

rvba 5d ago
You know your basic income will be some minumum to make you shut up, while the owner class will own everything?
- eru 5d ago
  Hasn't happened so far.
- Marha01 5d ago
  As long as it's enough to afford my current living standard, I don't care. Let Musk own the entire Mars, as long as I receive enough to live relatively comfortably and don't have to work anymore. And if I don't receive enough, then again: the problem is not AI, but powers that be. And there are various solutions for that... and none of them are helped by me being anti-AI.
  - swader999 5d ago
    You won't have any real power in that scenario, you'll just be shut off.
    - Marha01 4d ago
      Human-level AI hosted locally will give everyone much more power and wealth than they have currently. I don't care if I will be shut off from Musk's Mars lair. And Musk has no reason to care that robots take good care of me here on Earth, when he has his Martian utopia.
- azan_ 5d ago
  Who will pay for services performed by AI? How will they make money?