12 ms·
No. A cynic might think a significant part of this half-arsed Iran war was: - make sure fuel prices increase globally - The US economy is relatively well-shie
by markvdb 5d ago
No. A cynic might think a significant part of this half-arsed Iran war was:
- make sure fuel prices increase globally
- The US economy is relatively well-shielded from the fallout by its own fossil fuel sources, local and in colonies like Venezuela.
- export more US fossil fuels, especially to Europe, at inflated prices. US insiders reap the profits.
- further kneecap European competitiveness in energy intensive sectors, steal market share. Oh well, small gift to China here too, but still a net win for the US.
- watwut 5d agoI just dont think these guy are even capable to plan that much.
- p-e-w 5d agoThen you probably believe that the US government only consists of the half dozen clowns you see on TV every day.
- discreteevent 5d agoThat's the point this time around. They went full authoritarian and purged all the competent people.
- Art9681 5d agoThat's just the media noise. Yea there were purges. But its a big leap to go from "some" to "all" the best people. Government is the largest employer in the country. The nonsense you see constantly by politicians and other leaders is a tiny fraction of what the government workforce is. This is why despite the chaos you see in the media, life hasn't changed much for the great majority of people all things considered. The government remains functional where it needs to be.
- m_fayer 5d agoThe purges haven’t reached too deep into the rank and file yet, which is why the walls are still standing. But they’ve hit the top of the pyramid hard, which is why nothing makes sense.
- voganmother42 5d agoIts been way more effective at murdering US citizens for sure. The ICE recruits are raising the bar. Oh and now the FBI can consider those with a background in bestiality, so lots of fresh talent there
- deleted 5d ago[deleted]
- estearum 5d agoSomeone hasn't been paying attention to the Pentagon or State Department purges, both of which would lead precisely to this type of mistake. We had a retard in the Oval Office 2017-2021 surrounded by "the deep state" (i.e. career managers of the ultra-complex organization called "the government"), and politically constrained by Congress. Now we have that same retard, but supported by vast purges of aforementioned managers, and politically unconstrained by the cultists and cowards (the two forms of GOP representative) in Congress.
- fofoz 5d agoWe have no doubt that the best people are in US government and that they have the best tools at their disposal. Around the world, we are simply trying to figure out, while munching on plenty of popcorn, how this incredible sequence of actions will play out; a sequence clearly crafted using highly complex strategic planning tools that employ the most advanced techniques from game theory, AI, and who knows what else.
- megous 5d agoYes, if the rest just listens and executes their wishes, then you're all clowns.
- 5upplied_demand 5d agoI personally believe the well-sourced journalism explaining how the President ignored the opinions of Government experts to do what he wanted. > https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-warnings-9d7f289a?mod=hp_lead_pos2 https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-warn...
- galangalalgol 5d agoIf you think so little of them, then imagine what the people who pay $5M for a meal with him can convince him to do. Or what people who pay his son-in-law/iran-negotiator 25M a year can call and ask him to do.
- watwut 5d agoFrom my observations, it seems to be kind of hit and miss. Sometimes they trade, he takes money amd do what was asked. Other times, he takes money and dont do what was asked. We dont have to imagine this. We kind of see both variants in the open.
- hebelehubele 5d agoThe US sells oil and refined products to other countries. So a supply crunch would raise prices even there too. Everyday Americans are not getting fuel for cheap.
- toyg 5d agoNobody cares about everyday Americans, it's about American corporations. Exxon and friends are printing money.
- fnordpiglet 5d agoI have a suspicion that the caring is starting to mount, otherwise there’s no need to offer a $1.3T election bribe (which I’ll file a the other dividend / bribes that were never sent and the bridge Trump sold me)
- saturn8601 5d agoThats just the weekly circus. If Dems win everything this election, the next circus will be months of impeachment inquiries followed by no action.
- toyg 5d agoIf more action is even more meddling with Middle East countries, at this point no-action might be the right thing to do...
- culi 5d agoYes this is true but the oil companies are amassing a lot of wealth the entire world is now much much more dependent on the US for oil. Giving the US much more economic leverage. Who ever cared about every day Americans?
- EGreg 5d agoThis was clearly a secret attempt of Trump's to be the world's best president for getting off fossil fuels and moving to renewables. The man is playing 7 dimensional chess bro! When all is said and done it will be he, not AOC or Bernie or any "Green New Deal" folks, that will be remembered by history as the president who did more to get people off fossil fuels than any other.
- fofoz 5d agoHe's so clever that he's probably even playing chess in a Hilbert space. The whole world envies American voters, who will receive $5,000 if they re-elect this incredible genius.
- bijowo1676 5d agoTrump is just accelerating the course of history. The fall of American hegemony, the humiliation of the MIC, the petrodollar, the fossil fuels, the USD as reserve currency is like speedrunning the historical events to reach the next more balanced equilibrium state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism
- giardini 5d ago"MIC"???
- 5d ago
- noelsusman 5d agoIt's nice to think there was some sort of plan, but the truth is much scarier.
- postsantum 5d ago>some sort of plan George Friedman, The Next Decade
- Rygian 5d ago> Friedman [...] advocates a deal with Iran which would essentially allow it a secure sphere of influence in the region and an alliance with Turkey to counterbalance Iran and Israel. Seems to be in contradiction.
- nemomarx 5d agoI think the idea is 3 regimes in power to keep a balance between them instead of two rivals?
- the_gipsy 5d agoShort-term benefits seem to be good enough for America in this new age.
- danisth 5d agoI believe there were pieces of a plan. This global energy shift gambit being one of them. I don’t think there was a unified strategy with contingencies etc though (if there was it certainly wasn’t very good).
- wins32767 5d agoIts almost like not having meaningful power projection capabilities when you rely on imports for essential industries is not good!
- Al-Khwarizmi 5d agoSure, if you make oil prices increase, US oil companies and their shareholders rake in more cash. But it's harmful for the average American because filling up the tank costs a lot more. Then that price hike spreads to everything else that relies on oil (which is pretty much everything) leading to inflation and rising interest rates (already starting to happen, the shielding you mention doesn't seem to be working, which makes sense in a relatively free-market economy). If the situation drags on, unemployment rises due to soaring costs across the board, and the economy goes to hell. A rise in crude prices might pay off for a small country that lives almost exclusively off it (say, Saudi Arabia, in the hyphotetical case that it could keep exporting as normal) but for the US? I don't think it does. Surely, Europe is more exposed than the US and will suffer even more, but this is not a zero-sum game. So I don't think it's an elaborate plan, it's just Trump being reckless as usual.
- Catloafdev 5d agoI wouldn't assume this administration gives a shit about inflation or rising interest rates or how the rest of the economy is doing. Do you have any reason to believe they do?
- toast0 5d agoThis administration keeps trying to intimidate the Fed into lowering interest rates, which makes me believe it holds that as important, and they keep claiming there isn't inflation regardless of reality. I don't think they really care about how the economy is doing, but they care about how the summary numbers look.
- AnthonyMouse 5d ago> But it's harmful for the average American because filling up the tank costs a lot more. The fun part about this is that it shows what people actually care about. What happens if petroleum prices go up? People use less. It's the entire premise of a carbon tax. Fuel costs more so people buy a hybrid or electric vehicle, power utilities find renewables or nuclear more attractive relative to natural gas, etc. In a market economy this is the primary way to get people to switch from something to alternatives -- which is pretty important if you think climate change is a problem. This is obviously not why Trump is doing it, but it's the consequence of it anyway. So now we get to see what people care about. Do you like higher oil prices because it speeds up the transition away from fossil fuels, or dislike them because of who it is that caused it this time?
- epolanski 5d agoYou're missing a key part: energy prices in US go up too. It doesn't matter if US and its colonies are net producers.
- deleted 5d ago[deleted]
- Art9681 5d agoRealpolitik might just be the best way to do things after all.
- giardini 5d agoPlease don't leave us in suspense: what would "realpolitik" be in this instance?
- markus_zhang 5d agoThe greatest happiness is to vanquish your enemies, to chase them before you, to rob them of their wealth, to see those dear to them bathed in tears, to clasp to your bosom their wives and daughters.
- llm_nerd 5d agoThe US is the world's most vulnerable economy to oil shocks. I mean the real economy, not the farce that the markets currently are. The Venezuela comment is extremely weird. You know Venezuela has negligible production, right, and that it would take 100s of billions of investments, over decades, to get reasonable production that would make a difference. That's ignoring that currently there is a laughably illegitimate puppet government -- literally just Madero's government minus him, as they did the coup with the US -- that has a 100% chance of a violent overthrow in the future. Which is exactly why all of the oil companies are shrugging and saying no thanks. Venezuela is a farce -- much like $5000 "dividend" for a government literally on the precipice of bankruptcy, as Bessent runs around, near tears, trying to convince everyone that they're the house and he's the big dog German Shepherd instead of the face of a failing empire having its last pathetic gasp, to laughter all around -- that Trump thinks gives him leverage against Canada. It is unbelievably pathetic business, like renaming a 400+ year old name on a lake like a little bitch. There is zero scenario where this has benefitted the US, but a drunkard incompetent secdef (sorry "secwar") convinced a foolish demented rapist, who already had Israel whispering in his ear, how easy and painless this foolish debacle will be. ROFL.
- jimbokun 5d agoYou honestly think the Trump administration is intelligent enough to think all of that through and execute it?
- DrScientist 5d agoUsing that lens then you could view the Iran war is simply a failed ( so far ) attempt to grab Iranian oil revenues, perhaps emboldened by the relatively quick success of the Venezuela adventure. The truth is probably much more multi-headed - though hard to see how the US would have gone to war without some assessment of their own energy situation.
- culi 5d agoThis is actually a pretty popular take. And it's not just oil. US is gaining dominance in LNG as well. Qatar is now buying US LNG exports. Europe, now cut off from both Russian and Iranian oil, is the most dependent on the US its been since reconstruction. When Iran hit some of Exxon's oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, their stock actually shot up. Because they have an even greater investment in LNG in Texas which are now incredibly valuable
- ChoGGi 5d agoWhat about the SPR being in salt caves being pumped out with water? That can't end well?