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Here's two possible set of predictions: - a list of predictions that are entirely wrong, from A-to-Z, and are not even resembling what ends up happening - a l
by rtpg 15d ago
Here's two possible set of predictions:
- a list of predictions that are entirely wrong, from A-to-Z, and are not even resembling what ends up happening
- a list of predictions that are wrong, but where the underlying points are in fact interesting and have some predictive value, and it's just the "last step" that is wrong
For example, one person might say "oh it's raining in Dallas therefore I should buy some TI stock". And we'll say for sake of argument that they say that even though it's nice and sunny in Dallas at the moment.
Another person says "Oh its raining a lot in Idaho and that is going to increase potato yields and therefore I will buy McDonalds stocks cuz fries will be cheaper". In this hypothetical it turns out McDonalds buys all their potatoes from ... Kansas or something instead (and it's a specific kind of potato in a completely separate market)... but Idaho potato yields _did in fact go up_.
An even more straightforward point: the iphone 3GS comes out in 2010, people are very hyped, someone looks at how RIM _still_ hasn't gotten its shit together and declares "RIM isn't going to to be able to stay profitable 18 months from now, they're gonna have their lunch eaten".
Turns out that RIM still made a healthy profit in 2010. and 2011. And 2012. 2013 was their first loss in a while... and then it wasn't until 2014 that they really got kicked in the face.
The prediction was early, overestimated how long of a tail RIM would experience, but how wrong was it? Was the prediction of some utility?
I'm saying this... it would be helpful if _some_ more AI companies flamed out. In some sense he does himself no favors by focusing on the corps with the biggest war chest instead of the various AI companies that spend a bunch to go nowhere fast and then have just disappeared.
- threatripper 15d agoBeing early is the same as being wrong. Being lucky is the same as being right.
- rapnie 15d agoNice saying. If in the prediction "given [intricate analysis] the whole [shebang] goes [bust] at [date]", only the [date] turns out to be wrong, I'd say it is still a valuable prediction however, though it was wrong.
- Dban1 15d ago&&
- dash2 15d agoProblem is even his “intricate analysis” was wrong: for example he was saying the models wouldn’t keep improving… in 2024.
- pocksuppet 14d agoHave they improved? Is there evidence of that? Got a task you were doing in 2024 and 2026 and the results of each?
- threatripper 14d agoThere is plenty of evidence that they have improved in all benchmarks and also in my private experience. But have they improved in the things they still fail at? No, they still fail at them. You need only one example of failure to prove that it still fails. They still fail a lot on many real world tasks. So, depending on what you ask, they may have not improved even a tiny bit.
- Denkel 11d agoI am a very light user, so this is my feeling from reading about other people's experience; I wouldn't say that they plateau'd but up to 4.5/4.8 the gains in the models felt exponential while since then they feel more linear and the big improvements are coming less from the models and more from everything around it (harnesses, agentic development, skills...). So, while I don't feel like there has not been improvement, it really feels like there is a limit that will be reached sooner than later (and for sure before any AGI).
- anthonyrstevens 13d agoOh my goodness. Is this really a good-faith question?
- 14d ago
- scared_together 15d ago> The prediction was early, overestimated how long of a tail RIM would experience, but how wrong was it? Was the prediction of some utility? Wrong enough that the utility is seriously diminished. Predicting a specific quantity dropping to a specific level at a specific date is a lot more valuable than saying “those guys are cooked”. And even if some minuscule utility existed: why should predictors be so coddled by their observers? We should be demanding more rigour from predictors rather than looking for new and creative ways to forgive them for their folly.
- kennywinker 15d agoRIM is dying now -> useful for stock trading RIM is dying in the next four years -> useful for life planning. Anyway, i just wanna get on record that i predict an ai bubble pop event in the next 12 months.
- stymaar 15d ago> Anyway, i just wanna get on record that i predict an ai bubble pop event in the next 12 months. If it happens on Sep 2nd 2027 you'd be wrong though.
- deleted 14d ago[deleted]
- kennywinker 14d agoNext 12 months: Oct 2026, Nov 2026, Dec 2026, Jan 2027, Feb 2027, Mar 2027, Apr 2027, May 2027, Jun 2027, Jul 2027, Aug 2027, Sep 2027. So, if we're being pedantic, I'm not wrong until Oct 1st 2027 or later. But I'm also wrong if it happens this month ;)
- gavinsyancey 15d ago> Anyway, i just wanna get on record that i predict an ai bubble pop event in the next 12 months. Certainly possible, but I feel like you're very much going out on a limb predicting anything that soon. The market can stay irrational for a surprisingly long time if there's enough money floating around. But I would be stunned if we don't have an AI bubble pop sometime in the next decade.