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The AI debate has often been flattened into "Do you believe in the long term viability of the tech?" when there is also another question that needs to be asked

by slg 20d ago

The AI debate has often been flattened into "Do you believe in the long term viability of the tech?" when there is also another question that needs to be asked in "Do you believe in the long term viability of these companies' business models?" It's a lot easier to believe the former than the latter. It's entirely possible for this tech to be humanity altering in the long term while we are also in a huge bubble that could pop at any moment. In that way the housing analogy is apt. The utility of the houses themselves didn't change, the problem was purely with financial markets until eventually those markets made it everyone's problem.

user43928 20d ago
As of now the compute is fully utilized, progress is rapid, and both OpenAI's and Anthropic's revenue is growing fast. This could change, but there is no sign of it yet. No one knows whether other companies are going to catch up, with what compute, or if OpenAI or Anthropic will be able to conquer robotics or medicine.
gedy 20d ago
Yes exactly the same as during the Dot com bubble.
- PaulHoule 20d ago
  Notably a lot of those companies went down, a lot of investors lost money, but the internet and e-commerce proved to be just as big as people expected back then, maybe even bigger.
  - gedy 20d ago
    Yes I that was in reply to OP making similar point about AI
    - oliculipolicula 20d ago
      Almost, but not quite. Consider https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ada65-c56c-499c-8eb6-008fac58949d https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ada65-c56c-499c-8eb6-008fac589... I hate to say it, but the reality (AI, today) might be closest to PG's "intuition",to wit, it doesn't pay to be left of center-right For "previous bubbles", I have a different, apolitical,take
- Supermancho 20d ago
  Having lived to adulthood before Amazon started, I remember the massive debt to profit ratio of many dotcom companies. Most importantly, I stick to Amazon's lesson: Sometimes, it's not about who's first. The winner can be determined by who's left.

by slg 20d ago

user43928 20d ago

As of now the compute is fully utilized, progress is rapid, and both OpenAI's and Anthropic's revenue is growing fast. This could change, but there is no sign of it yet. No one knows whether other companies are going to catch up, with what compute, or if OpenAI or Anthropic will be able to conquer robotics or medicine.

gedy 20d ago

Yes exactly the same as during the Dot com bubble.

PaulHoule 20d ago
Notably a lot of those companies went down, a lot of investors lost money, but the internet and e-commerce proved to be just as big as people expected back then, maybe even bigger.
- gedy 20d ago
  Yes I that was in reply to OP making similar point about AI
  - oliculipolicula 20d ago
    Almost, but not quite. Consider https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ada65-c56c-499c-8eb6-008fac58949d https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ada65-c56c-499c-8eb6-008fac589... I hate to say it, but the reality (AI, today) might be closest to PG's "intuition",to wit, it doesn't pay to be left of center-right For "previous bubbles", I have a different, apolitical,take
Supermancho 20d ago
Having lived to adulthood before Amazon started, I remember the massive debt to profit ratio of many dotcom companies. Most importantly, I stick to Amazon's lesson: Sometimes, it's not about who's first. The winner can be determined by who's left.