It's really sobering how much your use of international data impacts the failure rates. If you limit yourself to US historical data then I think about 3.5% with

It's really sobering how much your use of international data impacts the failure rates. If you limit yourself to US historical data then I think about 3.5% withdrawal rate is bulletproof. But in your data I managed to get 2.2% failure rate when withdrawing just 2.5% p.a for 20 years!