nhootan

12 ms·

1.
by nhootan 19d ago
Exactly right, it's GDPR, not specific to France. Working on it ...
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by nhootan 20d ago
That's a great feedback. I think I can add these scenarios as new features to the life events section. I have also thought of allowing to specify correlation between income and markets performance. If you are interested in beta testing
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by nhootan 21d ago
The sign in is required for detailed plans to save the plans. Those plans also incure real comupte on the server. QC results are based on a cache in the browser and don't need sign in.
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by nhootan 21d ago
The Germany's data is in since 1901, but there is a gap between 1922-1923, cause the underlying dataset, DMS, has no bonds data for that period.
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by nhootan 21d ago
Glad it ran, but the numbers aren't US. Once you login, "Other, rest of world" gives you a gross projection with tax and benefits off. The returns come from the same 25 country bootstrap everyone gets, with the domestic count
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by nhootan 21d ago
Your last paragraph is why I did using MC simulations based on credible data. Once you pick a return and a volatility, the output just restates your inputs and you can't tell a wrong answer from a right one. Historical data doesn'
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by nhootan 21d ago
Sorry, that's the EU account gate rather than a geoblock. You can browse and run the Quick Check from anywhere except Quebec, but account creation is blocked in the EU/EEA/UK/CH, so the full builder is out of reach. The
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by nhootan 21d ago
Thanks, that's most of why I built it. A US only backtest is one draw where you already know who won. This is 25 countries over 125 years, block bootstrapped with the domestic country resampled, so something like Japan after 1990 shows
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by nhootan 21d ago
It's Bill 96 and Law 25. No French UI yet, so blocking beats being non compliant. It's near the top of the list.
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by nhootan 21d ago
The timing half is there: CPP/OAS or Social Security start ages, and pension start and end ages, so claiming at 62 versus deferring is something you can run both ways today. Draw order across accounts isn't exposed yet. Right now
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by nhootan 21d ago
That's in the full planner, just not the Quick Check. Horizons are sampled per person from actuarial mortality tables, so you get a distribution of lifespans rather than one guessed end age. You can also pin a fixed age and run your 62
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by nhootan 21d ago
Fair, and it's the part I'm least settled on. The account exists because the full plan is a server side run that gets stored, not to build a mailing list. Being straight about it: the long-run panel is the Dimson-Marsh-Staunton da
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by nhootan 21d ago
That result is right. The Quick Check takes a withdrawal rate, not a dollar amount, and runs with taxes off, so it's scale invariant: $1M at 4% and $3M at 4% are the same simulation times three. That's what lets it be instant and
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by nhootan 21d ago
I got tired of retirement calculators that either assume one fixed return forever, or run Monte Carlo by pulling each year independently out of a bell curve. Real markets don't behave like that. Bad years cluster, and a crash in your f
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Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries(foresightplanner.com)
16 points by nhootan 21d ago|39 comments