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I've lived in Taiwan for a large part of my life. They would lose all of TSMC if they do any military actions. It's not the fact that the CCP thinks that they

by m00x 23d ago

I've lived in Taiwan for a large part of my life. They would lose all of TSMC if they do any military actions. It's not the fact that the CCP thinks that they can make Taiwan and China a country, it's the the fact that most of China does in fact consider them as one country. Taiwan is ready to defend themselves, but are very happy keeping their relationship with China the way it is.

YetAnotherNick 23d ago
My bet would be that invasion wouldn't look like quick war, but slow control of political power either through light force like economic blackmail, or through something similar to what US did with Venezuela. Now that US has already opened the gate to labelling nation head as drug seller, this just eases things for China.
- conception 23d ago
  Also the US has very publicly shown they don’t have the ability to effectively wage war over any period of time.
  - sailfast 23d ago
    Yes and no. The Iran war is deeply unpopular and won’t even pass congressional approval for money. It’s being fought from pocket change budgets because they know they can’t pass a funding bill for it. Also not the same kind of war. Any period time? US waged war for 20+ years in Afghanistan. Pretty effectively! To what end? Not an end an army can really achieve so… there you are. But a war that might actually be popular? To save the world from communist dictators and make sure we have chips for our precious devices? I wouldn’t count out the United States. Or nuclear weapons, which still exist and are a thing.
    - wongarsu 23d ago
      And it'd be the kind of war the US is best at. Boots on the ground, against conventional military, with a civilian population that is on the side of the US forces No guerilla warfare, no insurgents, no need for extended beyond-visual-range warfare that depletes missile stockpiles
      - fc417fc802 23d ago
        > no need for extended beyond-visual-range warfare that depletes missile stockpiles Was with you until that last one. If you haven't noticed missiles, drones, and interceptors have played a central role in ukraine.
      - majormajor 23d ago
        How many boots on the ground could you get and how quickly/safely? The supposed opposition here is MUCH closer to the island.
        KPGv2 23d ago
        The war over Taiwan wouldn't be done by soldiers on Taiwanese soil. So you wouldn't need many boots on the ground in a literal sense. But if you mean in a metaphorical sense, how long until the 7th Fleet could get to Taiwan, the answer is 0 days for first response, 3 days for everything located in Japan, and less than a week for the full mobilization of the 7th Fleet (that's 50+ ships and nearly 30K soldiers). The entire Pacific fleet could be there in a week and a half. (Granted, we're assuming competent US leadership, which is not the current administration.)
      - wasfgwp 23d ago
        > against conventional military, Last time used faced a conventional military that could actually challenge it was in Korea. It won’t have complete areal superiority or entire division surrendering after running into contact with US forces like they in Iraq. “Shock and awe” of course can be very effective just probably not against China. Even now US is running out of materiel against Iran and can’t really sustain a prolonged intense conflict while being able to protect its gulf allies from ballistic missiles and drones.
        leptons 23d ago
        Iran is not a war funded by congress, so it's really no wonder the US appears inneffective. Trump didn't get the support he thought he would from congress and now he's flailing around trying to save face. Change the leadership (which will happen soon) and when there is actual support from congress to fund and intervene in a conflict in Taiwan, then you will see a vastly different US military response.
    - wasfgwp 23d ago
      > US waged war for 20+ years in Afghanistan That was an occupation and a low intensity “pacification” mission. Waging a prolonged war against a military peer on the other side of the continent is a bit more problematic (considering that US is/was on the brink of running out of advanced weaponry in Iran despite having aerial superiority which they won’t over Taiwan, Japan would have to get involved as well cause otherwise US would have to entirely rely on the fragile carrier fleet). Using tactical nukes (even regardless of the extreme geopolitical downsides that might bring) wouldn’t necessarily give a great tactical advantage either, unless they are willing to do that over Taiwan itself to destroy the landing forces).
    - queenkjuul 22d ago
      Ah yeah that $1T a year for the last forever is just pocket change
- r_lee 23d ago
  just a gut feeling, but if they had to for some reason, I feel like they'd just go in and bomb as much strategic assets and invade, because in their eyes aside from Taiwan, there isn't much left to "unify" and it'd be historic, not something they'd need to do every decade or even century I feel like Russia thought the same of Ukraine, even though it is way bigger
- AtlasBarfed 23d ago
  Any country that competently adopts Ukrainian drone technology cannot effectively be invaded currently. And that's for a continental invasion. Taiwan? All surface ships are sitting ducks. Troop transport ships would get absolutely decimated, and then the landing troops would get swarmed by drones all over again, and then they have to maintain logistics to the small minority that land (good luck with that). And that's without naval drones. With naval drones? I have no idea how China gets anything across the strait. And all the above is true for a competently organized Chinese invasion. Which it won't be.
  - YetAnotherNick 23d ago
    That's why I said it will be slow. I think it will be decades long political control, not a military invasion. China have more credible threat of bombing economically relevant building like TSMC, or capturing leaders and protestors like they already are doing in Hong Kong.
  - wasfgwp 23d ago
    > adopts Ukrainian drone technology cannot effectively be invaded currently The tactical situation in Taiwan is very different though. I think it would come down more to what’s happening in the air since the stalemate in Ukraine is in large because the Russian airforce is almost completely neutralized and can only be used to launch cruise missiles from a safe distance. I doubt China would invade unless they feel they can somehow achieve at least temporary air superiority and achieve their other objectives during that period. Air defenses are probably much more important than drones overall.
decimalenough 23d ago
"Very happy" is a bit of a stretch, since a significant proportion of Taiwan would prefer to jettison the current pretence of being "One China" and become fully independent. But I agree that pretty much everybody will happily take the status quo over armed invasion.
- larodi 23d ago
  Considering all said so far, and events, it perhaps hardly makes real difference in the diamond era's franchised world.
- wolvoleo 23d ago
  I have a friend in Taiwan and he told me they're pretty happy because they have independence this way. If they go for more international recognition etc they'll gain nothing they don't already have but they'll upset the balance and give the CCP a reason to invade. So it will only make things worse. And a lot of people are sympathetic with the Chinese, just not their government. I've only visited Taiwan once and I only have one friend there so perhaps what I'm hearing is not accurate.
  - deleted 23d ago
    [deleted]
  - tw1984 23d ago
    > give the CCP a reason to invade. So it will only make things worse. CCP is not threatening taiwan because it might go for independence. it is _ALL_ about kicking the US out of the west Pacific. because of that, it is never about what people in Taiwan believe/say/do. It is only about the military balance of the west Pacific. > And a lot of people are sympathetic with the Chinese, just not their government. sympathetic of what? 20 years ago, you might be able to play the "CCP regime repressing the people in China" joke, you can't do it anymore especially in such topic of Taiwan. quality of life is significantly better in literally every aspect in China. Taipei in 2026 is getting more and more like a tier-3 Chinese city in 2016.
    - 23d ago
palata 23d ago
Isn't there some kind of "if you invade us we bomb our strategic factories" strategy? Like "if we can't have them, nobody can"?
- wongarsu 23d ago
  I think the plan is to defend, with allies motivated by the goal of saving TSMC facilities. If you destroy them the moment China declares war, Taiwanese allies might be much less invested But at the same time everyone understands that the Taiwanese would destroy the facilities before they fall into Chinese hands
  - schrectacular 23d ago
    If both those are true, then shouldn't we expect China to destroy them as part of first offensive?
    - mjevans 23d ago
      Ideally every side would prefer a complete victory... who wouldn't? Reality rarely offers such clear outcomes. Effectively the semantics are like a game of chicken and hostage combined. Might as well be a Prisoner's Dilemma.
  - scarab92 23d ago
    Why would China care if Taiwan blows up its fabs? The talent is still there, so they could rebuild, or recruit the talent to work for Chinese mainland fabs instead?
    - r_lee 23d ago
      wouldn't it be more likely that they'd flee to e.g. the US which would poach them and shower them with money? maybe easier said than done but still
      - mycall 23d ago
axus 23d ago
As a resident of Taiwan, would you say the average person there is comfortable obeying a strong central government, whoever that currently is? As an American, I found the deference to authority very strange.
- RussianBot9580 23d ago
  As an American, what are ways in which you can not defer to an authority - in a way that actually matters? Sure, you can choose to go outside dressed in gaudy colors, or not dressed at all if you are in SF. Or choose to flip the Democrat/Republican bit once every 4 years (usually without any effect on domestic or foreign policy, though not lately). But in a regular person's life, what authority do you want to opt out of? The average person can't do a thing about their HOA board, let alone a government representative.
  - blackqueeriroh 23d ago
    [flagged]
- actionfromafar 23d ago
  Really? Surely it can't be unfamiliar at least. So many GOPs anxiously mentioning Dear Leader every chance they get.
- danparsonson 23d ago
  > As an American, I found the deference to authority very strange. Are schoolchildren in the US still required to recite the pledge of allegiance...?
  - hundchenkatze 23d ago
    No, children can not be forced to stand and recite the pledge. The Supreme Court ruled, in 1943, that it is unconstitutional to compel students to salute the flag and recite the Pledge of Allegiance. https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-supreme-court/319/624.html https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-supreme-court/319/624.h...
podocarp 23d ago
What are you gonna do the day they don't need tsmc anymore
qmr 23d ago
> They would lose all of TSMC if they do any military actions. How is that? Is there an action movie style self destruct sequence?
- eru 23d ago
  A few employees with sledge hammers would be enough. These are rather delicate machines.
  - qmr 23d ago
    To render inoperable sure, but invaders would surely be able to suss out some of their secrets from the remains.
    - eru 23d ago
      I would suggest industrial espionage and luring away employees instead of invasion, if you are after secrets. > To render inoperable sure, but invaders would surely be able to suss out some of their secrets from the remains. Yes, but I have a suspicion the Taiwanese plans are a bit more involved than my sledge hammer idea.
- oasisaimlessly 23d ago
  Yes: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40441650 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40441650 "TSMC EUV machines equipped with remote self-destruct in case of invasion"
  - jonplackett 23d ago
    Seems like a risky move - they found just fein invasion, let them nerf their entire economy and then just go home.
d5lt5 23d ago
> I've lived in Taiwan for a large part of my life. Sounds like you've been fed the US anti-China propaganda for the large part of your life as well. _China doesn't need to invade Taiwan_ 1. 50%+ of Taiwan's workforce are white-collar workers [0]. 2. There are 3-4 major underwater internet communication hubs in Taiwan [1]. 3. There is a substantial opposition in Taiwan that want reunification (~20% of population support directly Li-Wun) [2]. 4. China is close to producing industry-grade EUV [3]. China just can: * Establish a total naval and air blockade of Taiwan using their fleets stationed in Ningbo and Zhanjiang. * Cut underwater internet cables in those 3 locations. * Achieve EUV. They won't need TSMC soon, and with the blockade they can show the world that TSMC is not a reliable supplier. Within months the political structure of Taiwan is going to crumble, as white-collar workers lose their jobs. [0] https://www.cbc.gov.tw/dl-215893-af39cb14b0044d1cb05a60864ec8d1f1.html https://www.cbc.gov.tw/dl-215893-af39cb14b0044d1cb05a60864ec... [1] https://cablegraph.com/ https://cablegraph.com/ [2] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3350271/xi-jinping-stressed-patience-taiwan-reunification-talks-opposition-leader https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3350271/xi-... [3] https://asiatimes.com/2025/12/made-in-china-euv-machine-targets-ai-chip-output-by-2028/ https://asiatimes.com/2025/12/made-in-china-euv-machine-targ...
- re-thc 23d ago
  > _China doesn't need to invade Taiwan._ All your points consider what China can do but not how others would respond. Blocking Taiwan when the whole AI economy is running on it will invoke lots of countries to go up in arms. There was a quote from US military that it'd cost less to fight than watch Taiwan fall (invasion or not). > 4. China is close to producing industry-grade EUV No where near close. At least not production grade at massive scale. > * Establish a total naval and air blockade of Taiwan using their fleets stationed in Ningbo and Zhanjiang. Doesn't work. If they do that the US, JP and others can also blockade around Shanghai, Hong Kong and the other ports. > They won't need TSMC soon Taiwan is not just TSMC. There are thousands to millions of things involving Taiwan you're likely not aware of and they might not even be AI or semi related.
  - d5lt5 23d ago

by m00x 23d ago

YetAnotherNick 23d ago

My bet would be that invasion wouldn't look like quick war, but slow control of political power either through light force like economic blackmail, or through something similar to what US did with Venezuela. Now that US has already opened the gate to labelling nation head as drug seller, this just eases things for China.

conception 23d ago
Also the US has very publicly shown they don’t have the ability to effectively wage war over any period of time.
- sailfast 23d ago
  Yes and no. The Iran war is deeply unpopular and won’t even pass congressional approval for money. It’s being fought from pocket change budgets because they know they can’t pass a funding bill for it. Also not the same kind of war. Any period time? US waged war for 20+ years in Afghanistan. Pretty effectively! To what end? Not an end an army can really achieve so… there you are. But a war that might actually be popular? To save the world from communist dictators and make sure we have chips for our precious devices? I wouldn’t count out the United States. Or nuclear weapons, which still exist and are a thing.
  - wongarsu 23d ago
    And it'd be the kind of war the US is best at. Boots on the ground, against conventional military, with a civilian population that is on the side of the US forces No guerilla warfare, no insurgents, no need for extended beyond-visual-range warfare that depletes missile stockpiles
    - fc417fc802 23d ago
      > no need for extended beyond-visual-range warfare that depletes missile stockpiles Was with you until that last one. If you haven't noticed missiles, drones, and interceptors have played a central role in ukraine.
    - majormajor 23d ago
      How many boots on the ground could you get and how quickly/safely? The supposed opposition here is MUCH closer to the island.
      - KPGv2 23d ago
        The war over Taiwan wouldn't be done by soldiers on Taiwanese soil. So you wouldn't need many boots on the ground in a literal sense. But if you mean in a metaphorical sense, how long until the 7th Fleet could get to Taiwan, the answer is 0 days for first response, 3 days for everything located in Japan, and less than a week for the full mobilization of the 7th Fleet (that's 50+ ships and nearly 30K soldiers). The entire Pacific fleet could be there in a week and a half. (Granted, we're assuming competent US leadership, which is not the current administration.)
    - wasfgwp 23d ago
      > against conventional military, Last time used faced a conventional military that could actually challenge it was in Korea. It won’t have complete areal superiority or entire division surrendering after running into contact with US forces like they in Iraq. “Shock and awe” of course can be very effective just probably not against China. Even now US is running out of materiel against Iran and can’t really sustain a prolonged intense conflict while being able to protect its gulf allies from ballistic missiles and drones.
      - leptons 23d ago
        Iran is not a war funded by congress, so it's really no wonder the US appears inneffective. Trump didn't get the support he thought he would from congress and now he's flailing around trying to save face. Change the leadership (which will happen soon) and when there is actual support from congress to fund and intervene in a conflict in Taiwan, then you will see a vastly different US military response.
  - wasfgwp 23d ago
    > US waged war for 20+ years in Afghanistan That was an occupation and a low intensity “pacification” mission. Waging a prolonged war against a military peer on the other side of the continent is a bit more problematic (considering that US is/was on the brink of running out of advanced weaponry in Iran despite having aerial superiority which they won’t over Taiwan, Japan would have to get involved as well cause otherwise US would have to entirely rely on the fragile carrier fleet). Using tactical nukes (even regardless of the extreme geopolitical downsides that might bring) wouldn’t necessarily give a great tactical advantage either, unless they are willing to do that over Taiwan itself to destroy the landing forces).
  - queenkjuul 22d ago
    Ah yeah that $1T a year for the last forever is just pocket change
r_lee 23d ago
just a gut feeling, but if they had to for some reason, I feel like they'd just go in and bomb as much strategic assets and invade, because in their eyes aside from Taiwan, there isn't much left to "unify" and it'd be historic, not something they'd need to do every decade or even century I feel like Russia thought the same of Ukraine, even though it is way bigger
AtlasBarfed 23d ago
Any country that competently adopts Ukrainian drone technology cannot effectively be invaded currently. And that's for a continental invasion. Taiwan? All surface ships are sitting ducks. Troop transport ships would get absolutely decimated, and then the landing troops would get swarmed by drones all over again, and then they have to maintain logistics to the small minority that land (good luck with that). And that's without naval drones. With naval drones? I have no idea how China gets anything across the strait. And all the above is true for a competently organized Chinese invasion. Which it won't be.
- YetAnotherNick 23d ago
  That's why I said it will be slow. I think it will be decades long political control, not a military invasion. China have more credible threat of bombing economically relevant building like TSMC, or capturing leaders and protestors like they already are doing in Hong Kong.
- wasfgwp 23d ago
  > adopts Ukrainian drone technology cannot effectively be invaded currently The tactical situation in Taiwan is very different though. I think it would come down more to what’s happening in the air since the stalemate in Ukraine is in large because the Russian airforce is almost completely neutralized and can only be used to launch cruise missiles from a safe distance. I doubt China would invade unless they feel they can somehow achieve at least temporary air superiority and achieve their other objectives during that period. Air defenses are probably much more important than drones overall.

decimalenough 23d ago

"Very happy" is a bit of a stretch, since a significant proportion of Taiwan would prefer to jettison the current pretence of being "One China" and become fully independent. But I agree that pretty much everybody will happily take the status quo over armed invasion.

larodi 23d ago
Considering all said so far, and events, it perhaps hardly makes real difference in the diamond era's franchised world.
wolvoleo 23d ago
I have a friend in Taiwan and he told me they're pretty happy because they have independence this way. If they go for more international recognition etc they'll gain nothing they don't already have but they'll upset the balance and give the CCP a reason to invade. So it will only make things worse. And a lot of people are sympathetic with the Chinese, just not their government. I've only visited Taiwan once and I only have one friend there so perhaps what I'm hearing is not accurate.
- deleted 23d ago
  [deleted]
- tw1984 23d ago
  > give the CCP a reason to invade. So it will only make things worse. CCP is not threatening taiwan because it might go for independence. it is _ALL_ about kicking the US out of the west Pacific. because of that, it is never about what people in Taiwan believe/say/do. It is only about the military balance of the west Pacific. > And a lot of people are sympathetic with the Chinese, just not their government. sympathetic of what? 20 years ago, you might be able to play the "CCP regime repressing the people in China" joke, you can't do it anymore especially in such topic of Taiwan. quality of life is significantly better in literally every aspect in China. Taipei in 2026 is getting more and more like a tier-3 Chinese city in 2016.
  - 23d ago

palata 23d ago

Isn't there some kind of "if you invade us we bomb our strategic factories" strategy? Like "if we can't have them, nobody can"?

wongarsu 23d ago
I think the plan is to defend, with allies motivated by the goal of saving TSMC facilities. If you destroy them the moment China declares war, Taiwanese allies might be much less invested But at the same time everyone understands that the Taiwanese would destroy the facilities before they fall into Chinese hands
- schrectacular 23d ago
  If both those are true, then shouldn't we expect China to destroy them as part of first offensive?
  - mjevans 23d ago
    Ideally every side would prefer a complete victory... who wouldn't? Reality rarely offers such clear outcomes. Effectively the semantics are like a game of chicken and hostage combined. Might as well be a Prisoner's Dilemma.
- scarab92 23d ago
  Why would China care if Taiwan blows up its fabs? The talent is still there, so they could rebuild, or recruit the talent to work for Chinese mainland fabs instead?
  - r_lee 23d ago
    wouldn't it be more likely that they'd flee to e.g. the US which would poach them and shower them with money? maybe easier said than done but still
    - mycall 23d ago

axus 23d ago

As a resident of Taiwan, would you say the average person there is comfortable obeying a strong central government, whoever that currently is? As an American, I found the deference to authority very strange.

RussianBot9580 23d ago
As an American, what are ways in which you can not defer to an authority - in a way that actually matters? Sure, you can choose to go outside dressed in gaudy colors, or not dressed at all if you are in SF. Or choose to flip the Democrat/Republican bit once every 4 years (usually without any effect on domestic or foreign policy, though not lately). But in a regular person's life, what authority do you want to opt out of? The average person can't do a thing about their HOA board, let alone a government representative.
- blackqueeriroh 23d ago
  [flagged]
actionfromafar 23d ago
Really? Surely it can't be unfamiliar at least. So many GOPs anxiously mentioning Dear Leader every chance they get.
danparsonson 23d ago
> As an American, I found the deference to authority very strange. Are schoolchildren in the US still required to recite the pledge of allegiance...?
- hundchenkatze 23d ago
  No, children can not be forced to stand and recite the pledge. The Supreme Court ruled, in 1943, that it is unconstitutional to compel students to salute the flag and recite the Pledge of Allegiance. https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-supreme-court/319/624.html https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/us-supreme-court/319/624.h...

podocarp 23d ago

What are you gonna do the day they don't need tsmc anymore

qmr 23d ago

> They would lose all of TSMC if they do any military actions. How is that? Is there an action movie style self destruct sequence?

eru 23d ago
A few employees with sledge hammers would be enough. These are rather delicate machines.
- qmr 23d ago
  To render inoperable sure, but invaders would surely be able to suss out some of their secrets from the remains.
  - eru 23d ago
    I would suggest industrial espionage and luring away employees instead of invasion, if you are after secrets. > To render inoperable sure, but invaders would surely be able to suss out some of their secrets from the remains. Yes, but I have a suspicion the Taiwanese plans are a bit more involved than my sledge hammer idea.
oasisaimlessly 23d ago
Yes: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40441650 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40441650 "TSMC EUV machines equipped with remote self-destruct in case of invasion"
- jonplackett 23d ago
  Seems like a risky move - they found just fein invasion, let them nerf their entire economy and then just go home.

d5lt5 23d ago

> I've lived in Taiwan for a large part of my life. Sounds like you've been fed the US anti-China propaganda for the large part of your life as well. _China doesn't need to invade Taiwan_ 1. 50%+ of Taiwan's workforce are white-collar workers [0]. 2. There are 3-4 major underwater internet communication hubs in Taiwan [1]. 3. There is a substantial opposition in Taiwan that want reunification (~20% of population support directly Li-Wun) [2]. 4. China is close to producing industry-grade EUV [3]. China just can: * Establish a total naval and air blockade of Taiwan using their fleets stationed in Ningbo and Zhanjiang. * Cut underwater internet cables in those 3 locations. * Achieve EUV. They won't need TSMC soon, and with the blockade they can show the world that TSMC is not a reliable supplier. Within months the political structure of Taiwan is going to crumble, as white-collar workers lose their jobs. [0] https://www.cbc.gov.tw/dl-215893-af39cb14b0044d1cb05a60864ec8d1f1.html https://www.cbc.gov.tw/dl-215893-af39cb14b0044d1cb05a60864ec... [1] https://cablegraph.com/ https://cablegraph.com/ [2] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3350271/xi-jinping-stressed-patience-taiwan-reunification-talks-opposition-leader https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3350271/xi-... [3] https://asiatimes.com/2025/12/made-in-china-euv-machine-targets-ai-chip-output-by-2028/ https://asiatimes.com/2025/12/made-in-china-euv-machine-targ...

re-thc 23d ago
> _China doesn't need to invade Taiwan._ All your points consider what China can do but not how others would respond. Blocking Taiwan when the whole AI economy is running on it will invoke lots of countries to go up in arms. There was a quote from US military that it'd cost less to fight than watch Taiwan fall (invasion or not). > 4. China is close to producing industry-grade EUV No where near close. At least not production grade at massive scale. > * Establish a total naval and air blockade of Taiwan using their fleets stationed in Ningbo and Zhanjiang. Doesn't work. If they do that the US, JP and others can also blockade around Shanghai, Hong Kong and the other ports. > They won't need TSMC soon Taiwan is not just TSMC. There are thousands to millions of things involving Taiwan you're likely not aware of and they might not even be AI or semi related.
- d5lt5 23d ago