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If you read the article, most of the decline in gas consumption in Australia is from changes in industrial usage. Residential demand is only down by 6% and part

by pnw 1mo ago

If you read the article, most of the decline in gas consumption in Australia is from changes in industrial usage. Residential demand is only down by 6% and part of that is likely due to the effective ban on gas in new residential construction which started in 2023 in Victoria. Prior to 2023 residential gas usage was increasing.

testing22321 1mo ago
Australia never had much residential gas usage. Mr he very vast majority of residential homes don’t even have gas. No need for a furnace.
- dalyons 1mo ago
  Pretty much every house in Victoria had gas, and gas furnaces, winter is cold enough
  - testing22321 1mo ago
    I grew up in Victoria in a town of 20,000. Not a single house has gas.
    - thrixton 1mo ago
      A lot of regional towns don't have mains gas so had to rely on deliveries. Living in outer Melbourne, I've always had gas, same with my friends and neighbours, and have always had gas hot water, stove top and heating, it's been the main heat source all my life, going away now with new builds not allowing gas connections, never mind if we have another massive electricity outage like 2022 when we were lucky to have gas for cooking and hot water, good luck charging batteries off solar in winter in a blackout if you're lucky enough to have proper blackout protection.
    - stubish 1mo ago
      I live in a Victorian town of similar size. Houses have mains gas even when they don't have sewage, and it has been this way at least 30 years. I'm guessing the mains gas didn't get to your town. I've visited houses further afield who use bottled gas, and the gas delivery truck is a not uncommon site. But I imagine usage has plummeted and more people getting themselves disconnected to avoid the connection fees, with solar visible on roughly half the roofs.
Symbiote 1mo ago
It would be useful to know if the industrial use is factories replacing their use with other sources (e.g. I have read that food manufacture is switching to electricity in Denmark, although it can be held up waiting for a grid connection if there's a data centre ahead of it). Or, did they improve their efficiency. Or, have they closed.
- hinkley 1mo ago
  Or outsourced their pollution to a foreign supplier.
  - hdgvhicv 1mo ago
    Carbon taxes collapse as they don’t account for imports correctly.
    - ericd 1mo ago
      There is a solution for this, called a CBAM, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. One just went into force across the EU. It should appeal to US politicians, because it advantages the relatively clean US manufacturing base.
AnotherGoodName 1mo ago
It has a whole section on the impact of power policy though and 15% of power mix to 7% for gas is significant. Coals fall is notable too.
0xWTF 1mo ago
A 50% price decline doesn't imply there's 50% less demand for petroleum. If 6% less demand is all the margin consumers need to get their supply, then price can drop quickly. It's all in the margins.
- password4321 1mo ago
  What is the best way to learn more about this, are there any examples? This seems a bit counterintuitive to me.
  - Waterluvian 1mo ago
    Not fully sure this is that, but it reminds me of something an American friend explained about their business under the Trump regime (as a rant about how laypeople were deeply under-reacting to the tourism decline): If it takes 100 tourists to pay his bills, taxes, staffing, and other expenses for the day, the next 5 tourists represent the profit. A tourism decline of 10% doesn’t mean 10% less profit, it means the catastrophic inviability of the whole business as it’s currently structured.
    - sarchertech 1mo ago
      That assumes he has a fixed profit per person. In reality most business can do things like cut hours for staff, postpone upgrades or long term maintenance, cut amenities, raise prices etc… If most businesses were structured in a way that a small decline in customers immediately puts them out of business, any minor economic downturn would be an unrecoverable positive feedback loop for the economy. I’m not saying a 10% drop won’t put a lot people out of business, but it’s not as much of an existential crisis for the economy as a whole as that story makes it seem.
      - lazide 1mo ago
        Uh, why do you think the Fed injects funds the way it does?
outside2344 1mo ago
So energy demand was increasing? Perhaps electric cars?
skissane 1mo ago
> Residential demand is only down by 6% and part of that is likely due to the effective ban on gas in new residential construction which started in 2023 in Victoria. Prior to 2023 residential gas usage was increasing. There's a lot of people who would get gas if only it were available. My house (in NSW), the gas main ends two streets away, they won't connect me unless I paid them some insane amount of money ($100K or whatever) to extend it to us. My father (different part of NSW), his neighbour had gas, but the gas main stopped outside his neighbours house, and it would have cost him thousands to get it extended so he could connect; then his neighbour on the other side paid those thousands, and they extended the gas main right past his front door, and then he could get connected for $500. Anyway, I think the measured demand isn't always the same as the real demand. Also, there's still a decent chance the Victorian government loses the state election this November–although with Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, it is less of a sure thing than it was–and the Liberals have already said they will wind back the new gas connection ban.
- stubish 1mo ago
  With gas getting more and more expensive here in Victoria, and electricity prices plummeting and already free if you get a decent sized battery, the gas connection ban seems mostly pointless. Nobody will pay $300/year for the connection (+installation) so they can have the privilege of paying for their heating and cooking, and even without a battery you are still looking at 3-4 times the cost with gas heating vs. electric heating with a COP of 3-5. It may become legal, but nothing would change unless they also subsidize the gas providers to lay pipes and keep the existing ones working, because it just wouldn't be profitable to them otherwise. Energy retailers (resellers) already don't want the business, with a number of them electricity only and the rest just doing it as an incentive to attract customers to their electricity offers.
  - skissane 1mo ago
    A lot of people still prefer gas stoves for cooking Yes you can get bottled LPG gas, but it is a pain – you worry about running out, you have to call up and get them to deliver it. With piped gas you just set up a direct debit for the bill and never think about it ever again. Also, some people prefer gas heaters because it is a different kind of heat. My father replaced his wood combustion heater with a gas one, even though he already had reverse cycle air-conditioning. Maybe just using the air conditioner would have been cheaper (he already has rooftop solar–I don't think he has a battery, but could easily put one in), but it wasn't what he wanted.
nonfamous 1mo ago
There appears to be some language confusion in the replies. FYI in Australia “gas” refers to natural gas (used in domestic cooking and some power stations), not gasoline for cars (which is called “petrol” here).
rickydroll 1mo ago
https://www.klgates.com/thought-leadership/Natural-Gas-Bans-From-New-York-to-Washington-Courts-Shift-the-Landscape-on-Legality-of-State-and-Local-Gas-Bans-4-7-2025 https://www.klgates.com/thought-leadership/Natural-Gas-Bans-... It's funny how when you cut off someone's revenue, they get all sorts of cranky, even if it's for a social good.

by pnw 1mo ago

testing22321 1mo ago

Australia never had much residential gas usage. Mr he very vast majority of residential homes don’t even have gas. No need for a furnace.

dalyons 1mo ago
Pretty much every house in Victoria had gas, and gas furnaces, winter is cold enough
- testing22321 1mo ago
  I grew up in Victoria in a town of 20,000. Not a single house has gas.
  - thrixton 1mo ago
    A lot of regional towns don't have mains gas so had to rely on deliveries. Living in outer Melbourne, I've always had gas, same with my friends and neighbours, and have always had gas hot water, stove top and heating, it's been the main heat source all my life, going away now with new builds not allowing gas connections, never mind if we have another massive electricity outage like 2022 when we were lucky to have gas for cooking and hot water, good luck charging batteries off solar in winter in a blackout if you're lucky enough to have proper blackout protection.
  - stubish 1mo ago
    I live in a Victorian town of similar size. Houses have mains gas even when they don't have sewage, and it has been this way at least 30 years. I'm guessing the mains gas didn't get to your town. I've visited houses further afield who use bottled gas, and the gas delivery truck is a not uncommon site. But I imagine usage has plummeted and more people getting themselves disconnected to avoid the connection fees, with solar visible on roughly half the roofs.

Symbiote 1mo ago

It would be useful to know if the industrial use is factories replacing their use with other sources (e.g. I have read that food manufacture is switching to electricity in Denmark, although it can be held up waiting for a grid connection if there's a data centre ahead of it). Or, did they improve their efficiency. Or, have they closed.

hinkley 1mo ago
Or outsourced their pollution to a foreign supplier.
- hdgvhicv 1mo ago
  Carbon taxes collapse as they don’t account for imports correctly.
  - ericd 1mo ago
    There is a solution for this, called a CBAM, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. One just went into force across the EU. It should appeal to US politicians, because it advantages the relatively clean US manufacturing base.

AnotherGoodName 1mo ago

It has a whole section on the impact of power policy though and 15% of power mix to 7% for gas is significant. Coals fall is notable too.

0xWTF 1mo ago

A 50% price decline doesn't imply there's 50% less demand for petroleum. If 6% less demand is all the margin consumers need to get their supply, then price can drop quickly. It's all in the margins.

password4321 1mo ago
What is the best way to learn more about this, are there any examples? This seems a bit counterintuitive to me.
- Waterluvian 1mo ago
  Not fully sure this is that, but it reminds me of something an American friend explained about their business under the Trump regime (as a rant about how laypeople were deeply under-reacting to the tourism decline): If it takes 100 tourists to pay his bills, taxes, staffing, and other expenses for the day, the next 5 tourists represent the profit. A tourism decline of 10% doesn’t mean 10% less profit, it means the catastrophic inviability of the whole business as it’s currently structured.
  - sarchertech 1mo ago
    That assumes he has a fixed profit per person. In reality most business can do things like cut hours for staff, postpone upgrades or long term maintenance, cut amenities, raise prices etc… If most businesses were structured in a way that a small decline in customers immediately puts them out of business, any minor economic downturn would be an unrecoverable positive feedback loop for the economy. I’m not saying a 10% drop won’t put a lot people out of business, but it’s not as much of an existential crisis for the economy as a whole as that story makes it seem.
    - lazide 1mo ago
      Uh, why do you think the Fed injects funds the way it does?

outside2344 1mo ago

So energy demand was increasing? Perhaps electric cars?

skissane 1mo ago

> Residential demand is only down by 6% and part of that is likely due to the effective ban on gas in new residential construction which started in 2023 in Victoria. Prior to 2023 residential gas usage was increasing. There's a lot of people who would get gas if only it were available. My house (in NSW), the gas main ends two streets away, they won't connect me unless I paid them some insane amount of money ($100K or whatever) to extend it to us. My father (different part of NSW), his neighbour had gas, but the gas main stopped outside his neighbours house, and it would have cost him thousands to get it extended so he could connect; then his neighbour on the other side paid those thousands, and they extended the gas main right past his front door, and then he could get connected for $500. Anyway, I think the measured demand isn't always the same as the real demand. Also, there's still a decent chance the Victorian government loses the state election this November–although with Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, it is less of a sure thing than it was–and the Liberals have already said they will wind back the new gas connection ban.

stubish 1mo ago
With gas getting more and more expensive here in Victoria, and electricity prices plummeting and already free if you get a decent sized battery, the gas connection ban seems mostly pointless. Nobody will pay $300/year for the connection (+installation) so they can have the privilege of paying for their heating and cooking, and even without a battery you are still looking at 3-4 times the cost with gas heating vs. electric heating with a COP of 3-5. It may become legal, but nothing would change unless they also subsidize the gas providers to lay pipes and keep the existing ones working, because it just wouldn't be profitable to them otherwise. Energy retailers (resellers) already don't want the business, with a number of them electricity only and the rest just doing it as an incentive to attract customers to their electricity offers.
- skissane 1mo ago
  A lot of people still prefer gas stoves for cooking Yes you can get bottled LPG gas, but it is a pain – you worry about running out, you have to call up and get them to deliver it. With piped gas you just set up a direct debit for the bill and never think about it ever again. Also, some people prefer gas heaters because it is a different kind of heat. My father replaced his wood combustion heater with a gas one, even though he already had reverse cycle air-conditioning. Maybe just using the air conditioner would have been cheaper (he already has rooftop solar–I don't think he has a battery, but could easily put one in), but it wasn't what he wanted.

nonfamous 1mo ago

There appears to be some language confusion in the replies. FYI in Australia “gas” refers to natural gas (used in domestic cooking and some power stations), not gasoline for cars (which is called “petrol” here).

rickydroll 1mo ago

https://www.klgates.com/thought-leadership/Natural-Gas-Bans-From-New-York-to-Washington-Courts-Shift-the-Landscape-on-Legality-of-State-and-Local-Gas-Bans-4-7-2025 https://www.klgates.com/thought-leadership/Natural-Gas-Bans-... It's funny how when you cut off someone's revenue, they get all sorts of cranky, even if it's for a social good.