7 ms·

At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.

scrappyjoe 2mo ago
Park it in BRK?
- nickff 2mo ago
  BRK has been roughly flat since the beginning of 2025; you might be better off in bonds or money markets (depending on your beliefs about near-term inflation).
  - niklasd 2mo ago
    Not that I have any skills in stock-picking whatsoever, but couldn't the recent lukewarm performance not also be an argument for BRK? I mean their cash pile is also invested in money markets (so you get that), and the rest of the portfolio consists of quality companies where their (combined) valuation didn't explode in the last 1,5 years. So it's an opportunity to invest into something that might not be overheated.
  - bryanlarsen 2mo ago
    BRK is 40% cash at the moment. I think "roughly flat" is evidence they're performing the strategy the OP wanted. BRK has stated that they'll buy back in when prices are reasonable again, so it's an automatic "sell-high buy-low" strategy.
    - red-iron-pine 2mo ago
      buffet may be holding his breath for some time markets...irrational... longer than you stay solvent, etc.
      - bryanlarsen 2mo ago
        Greg Abel has mostly replaced Buffet. Neither really care about the market as a whole. They're willing to buy any reasonably priced security with a promising future regardless of where the rest of the market is at. It's just that there are usually more of these available when the market is down.
jshen 2mo ago
First, don't park it in actual cash or you'll lose value to inflation which is currently running high. At a minimum put it in treasuries. Second, trying to time the market is almost always a suboptimal strategy. The question is when will you likely need the money? If you won't need it for 10 years or more, keep it in index funds. Otherwise, treasuries.
- ericpauley 2mo ago
  Personally I tend to assume anyone talking about VTI knows about the risk-free rate.
  - jshen 2mo ago
    Yeah, I would also assume that anyone talking about VTI wouldn't try to time the market, but that's what he was talking about so :shrug:
DougN7 2mo ago
It’s such an obvious Ponzi scheme the companies should get delisted.
le-mark 2mo ago
[flagged]
fullshark 2mo ago
Just need a larger emergency fund to mitigate the risk, especially if you work in tech and you feel the crash would heavily impact your labor earnings (including possibly extended unemployment)
mohamedkoubaa 2mo ago
Market goes up when the dollar crashes you're fine
rjh29 2mo ago
Historically even if you invest into index at the worst possible time (prior to a crash) and keep holding you still outperform inflation long term. Timing the market is impossible. Just keep an emergency fund in a money market or savings account and hold the rest.
pianopatrick 2mo ago
There is no law that prices must revert to a mean. The market can keep going up in dollar terms while losing real value if we enter a phase of high inflation.
red-iron-pine 2mo ago
already did mate, after Trumps first pump and dump with Iran what's your risk tolerance?
lotsofpulp 2mo ago
> there is no way the market keeps going up. There is no way the US’s leaders let the prices of publicly traded securities go down or even stagnate relative to the US dollar. These publicly traded securities make up a significant portion of the US leaders’ and most active voters’ assets, plus almost all state and local US governments depend on the securities’ price growth to meet their deferred compensation obligations. The alternative to risk in US securities isn’t the USD, it’s a stake in other stable countries with resources.
Terr_ 2mo ago
Others have given practical replies, so here's a philosophical one: Sometimes it's just not practical to make much money from being right. I want to acknowledge and empathize how much it sucks, while also putting it out there so that nobody suffers blaming themselves for something that might not be achievable. Disclosure: I've been waiting-and-seeing too long myself, and I should probaby stop trying to time/strategize.

scrappyjoe 2mo ago

Park it in BRK?

nickff 2mo ago
BRK has been roughly flat since the beginning of 2025; you might be better off in bonds or money markets (depending on your beliefs about near-term inflation).
- niklasd 2mo ago
  Not that I have any skills in stock-picking whatsoever, but couldn't the recent lukewarm performance not also be an argument for BRK? I mean their cash pile is also invested in money markets (so you get that), and the rest of the portfolio consists of quality companies where their (combined) valuation didn't explode in the last 1,5 years. So it's an opportunity to invest into something that might not be overheated.
- bryanlarsen 2mo ago
  BRK is 40% cash at the moment. I think "roughly flat" is evidence they're performing the strategy the OP wanted. BRK has stated that they'll buy back in when prices are reasonable again, so it's an automatic "sell-high buy-low" strategy.
  - red-iron-pine 2mo ago
    buffet may be holding his breath for some time markets...irrational... longer than you stay solvent, etc.
    - bryanlarsen 2mo ago
      Greg Abel has mostly replaced Buffet. Neither really care about the market as a whole. They're willing to buy any reasonably priced security with a promising future regardless of where the rest of the market is at. It's just that there are usually more of these available when the market is down.

jshen 2mo ago

First, don't park it in actual cash or you'll lose value to inflation which is currently running high. At a minimum put it in treasuries. Second, trying to time the market is almost always a suboptimal strategy. The question is when will you likely need the money? If you won't need it for 10 years or more, keep it in index funds. Otherwise, treasuries.

ericpauley 2mo ago
Personally I tend to assume anyone talking about VTI knows about the risk-free rate.
- jshen 2mo ago
  Yeah, I would also assume that anyone talking about VTI wouldn't try to time the market, but that's what he was talking about so :shrug:

DougN7 2mo ago

It’s such an obvious Ponzi scheme the companies should get delisted.

le-mark 2mo ago

[flagged]

fullshark 2mo ago

Just need a larger emergency fund to mitigate the risk, especially if you work in tech and you feel the crash would heavily impact your labor earnings (including possibly extended unemployment)

mohamedkoubaa 2mo ago

Market goes up when the dollar crashes you're fine

rjh29 2mo ago

Historically even if you invest into index at the worst possible time (prior to a crash) and keep holding you still outperform inflation long term. Timing the market is impossible. Just keep an emergency fund in a money market or savings account and hold the rest.

pianopatrick 2mo ago

There is no law that prices must revert to a mean. The market can keep going up in dollar terms while losing real value if we enter a phase of high inflation.

red-iron-pine 2mo ago

already did mate, after Trumps first pump and dump with Iran what's your risk tolerance?

lotsofpulp 2mo ago

> there is no way the market keeps going up. There is no way the US’s leaders let the prices of publicly traded securities go down or even stagnate relative to the US dollar. These publicly traded securities make up a significant portion of the US leaders’ and most active voters’ assets, plus almost all state and local US governments depend on the securities’ price growth to meet their deferred compensation obligations. The alternative to risk in US securities isn’t the USD, it’s a stake in other stable countries with resources.

Terr_ 2mo ago

Others have given practical replies, so here's a philosophical one: Sometimes it's just not practical to make much money from being right. I want to acknowledge and empathize how much it sucks, while also putting it out there so that nobody suffers blaming themselves for something that might not be achievable. Disclosure: I've been waiting-and-seeing too long myself, and I should probaby stop trying to time/strategize.