5 ms·

That’s really what Dario wants. Let’s hope he doesn’t get it

dofm 3mo ago
Regulatory capture is the OpenAI and Anthropic end goal, for certain. But I also think they exist in a sort of un-designed corporate narcissism, which is a common trait in bubble economies — I am not judging them particularly severely. Netscape under Clark and Andreessen and Sun under McNealy both fell into corporate narcissism: the belief that only they really mattered, that they were chosen, and that the world needed to rearrange itself to just let them shine. They arguably let themselves get played by Oracle (a corporate psychopath) and others as a result. OpenAI's position is profoundly corporate-narcissistic: all we need is all the money in the economy and not to have to do anything upsetting like think about turning a profit for the next four years. Like rich kids. It would be nice if you believed we were so important that we should get an enormous stipend for just being us. Anthropic's position is: we think we're so unique and ominous that government needs to make us both essential and terrifying. We have to exist otherwise worse people will. Both narcissistic positions.
- baq 3mo ago
  > Regulatory capture is the OpenAI and Anthropic end goal, for certain. it has to be, because the other way around - the government taking over parts or the whole thing - is inevitable if the trend holds.
  - dofm 3mo ago
    Porque no los dos?
    - baq 3mo ago
      this is exactly the play is my point
  - blitzar 3mo ago
    the inevitable trend is that numbers will be free and nobody will control the whole thing ai-celebrities are just clinging to relevance like all the other celebrities out there
    - intended 3mo ago
      HN is the builder side of the conversation, and in my experience, few safety people congregate here. The safety side of tech is a PTSD inducing shit show. Governments are more than happy to champion age verification laws, because parents, around the world, are clamoring for anything to pump the breaks on the social media experiment. Society outside of HN is quite tired of Tech, and I despair of figuring out a way to make this clear to the commentariat.
      - dofm 3mo ago
        > Society outside of HN is quite tired of Tech, and I despair of figuring out a way to make this clear to the commentariat. I don't think anyone in tech is really truly engaging with how quickly the shine has come off the tech industry. Except maybe Apple, who even so still have some work to do.
        malfist 3mo ago
        Technology and science is the intersection that is supposed to make our lives better, easier, more prosperous. The last decade or two what marvelous technology has came from silicon valley that hasn't served primarily the billionaire class and made life worse for the common people. The yoke of silicon valley is feeling heavy. People might just throw it off.
      - ang_cire 3mo ago
        Social media is old hat now. As someone on the "safety side of tech", social media is being exploited to increase surveillance and government control precisely because its actual social influence is heavily on the wane, and capital is happy to sacrifice what's left to increase the profits of the expanding public/private tech surveillance industry (with "protect the children" controls on social media like age verification being the usual backdoor route it always is). Society may be growing tired of Tech, but governments aren't, and in fact they're heavily expanding their back channel reliance on not-traditionally-military Tech as an extension of their Defense spending.
- Aperocky 3mo ago
  Spot on. There's a certain level of drinking the kool-aid or getting high on their own supply. Anthropic is a lot worse than OpenAI but OpenAI had to go through rounds of shedding.
  - dofm 3mo ago
    To be maximally fair to them, I think it is difficult to be one of the key businesses in a market bubble and not fall victim to this kind of thinking, especially when the continued inflation of the bubble depends on you — lots of people lose their shirts if you don't push hard to be "special". But as you say, there is a measure of getting high on one's own supply now. And there's the curious solipsistic energy of Sam Altman whimsically musing in public that it turns out his product is too expensive for people and they complain when you make the price realistic (when it possibly needs to be more expensive for OpenAI to survive). They seem to believe that the ordinary rules either will not or somehow must not apply to them; it's increasingly bizarre to watch. Maybe the people around pets.com were this bizarre; we didn't have so much livestreamed interview content to show us.
  - trollbridge 3mo ago
    A\ and OpenAI each have their own unique kind of nonsense. I think OpenAI has just been less successful with persuading the rest of the world that they should have all the money in the world. Anthropic has been surprisingly successful at convincing them that they should control frontier models because they're so dangerous that... only Anthropic can be trusted with them. (If they're really so dangerous, the right way to deal with them is through a democratic process and taking them out of the hands of a for-profit private entity.)
    - waffletower 3mo ago
      A democratic process, of sorts, elected the current government of the United States. The president even won the popular vote this round. There is no guarantee that AI guidance by democratic process will be an effective counter to corporate autocracy; and more realistically, AI guidance by an autocratic executive branch is the more likely alternative before 2029.
baq 3mo ago
what Dario wants is to retain any influence whatsover on how the research progresses before the inevitable nationalization of the frontier. he gets to keep the N-2 tech and maybe influence the N-1 tech, but the only influence on the frontier he has is today; whatever he imprints in the pipeline the government takes over. IOW I don't think he thinks in the same categories as most folks here.
- stogot 3mo ago
  N-1? N-2?
  - Avicebron 3mo ago
    Best-possible-model (N) - Two Generations (2), same with N-1, N is the SOTA in this example. I'm not sure that actually clarifies what the comment is trying to say other than they think the models will be nationalized (can't even imagine what that would look like).
    - baq 3mo ago
      basically imagine the Manhattan project, but instead of blowing up the desert they're building the biggest datacenter you've ever seen.
      - Avicebron 3mo ago
        Isn't this the beginning of the plot of "I Have No Mouth, And I Must Scream"? The exceptionally disturbing dystopian horror?
        baq 3mo ago
        the possible futures after the thing is built are uncountable, but hoping the thing won't get built at this point is naive. in general I agree people should be reading a lot more sci-fi nowadays than they used to.
vbezhenar 3mo ago
But he already got it, no? Claude Fable can only be made available to US citizens, which implies that every user who wants to use Claude Fable must provide proof of citizenship in some way, basically KYC.
- misnome 3mo ago
  For everyone, not just them
  - thefounder 3mo ago
    Exactly that’s what he wants and then there will be a loophole to close: open source models.

dofm 3mo ago

Regulatory capture is the OpenAI and Anthropic end goal, for certain. But I also think they exist in a sort of un-designed corporate narcissism, which is a common trait in bubble economies — I am not judging them particularly severely. Netscape under Clark and Andreessen and Sun under McNealy both fell into corporate narcissism: the belief that only they really mattered, that they were chosen, and that the world needed to rearrange itself to just let them shine. They arguably let themselves get played by Oracle (a corporate psychopath) and others as a result. OpenAI's position is profoundly corporate-narcissistic: all we need is all the money in the economy and not to have to do anything upsetting like think about turning a profit for the next four years. Like rich kids. It would be nice if you believed we were so important that we should get an enormous stipend for just being us. Anthropic's position is: we think we're so unique and ominous that government needs to make us both essential and terrifying. We have to exist otherwise worse people will. Both narcissistic positions.

baq 3mo ago
> Regulatory capture is the OpenAI and Anthropic end goal, for certain. it has to be, because the other way around - the government taking over parts or the whole thing - is inevitable if the trend holds.
- dofm 3mo ago
  Porque no los dos?
  - baq 3mo ago
    this is exactly the play is my point
- blitzar 3mo ago
  the inevitable trend is that numbers will be free and nobody will control the whole thing ai-celebrities are just clinging to relevance like all the other celebrities out there
  - intended 3mo ago
    HN is the builder side of the conversation, and in my experience, few safety people congregate here. The safety side of tech is a PTSD inducing shit show. Governments are more than happy to champion age verification laws, because parents, around the world, are clamoring for anything to pump the breaks on the social media experiment. Society outside of HN is quite tired of Tech, and I despair of figuring out a way to make this clear to the commentariat.
    - dofm 3mo ago
      > Society outside of HN is quite tired of Tech, and I despair of figuring out a way to make this clear to the commentariat. I don't think anyone in tech is really truly engaging with how quickly the shine has come off the tech industry. Except maybe Apple, who even so still have some work to do.
      - malfist 3mo ago
        Technology and science is the intersection that is supposed to make our lives better, easier, more prosperous. The last decade or two what marvelous technology has came from silicon valley that hasn't served primarily the billionaire class and made life worse for the common people. The yoke of silicon valley is feeling heavy. People might just throw it off.
    - ang_cire 3mo ago
      Social media is old hat now. As someone on the "safety side of tech", social media is being exploited to increase surveillance and government control precisely because its actual social influence is heavily on the wane, and capital is happy to sacrifice what's left to increase the profits of the expanding public/private tech surveillance industry (with "protect the children" controls on social media like age verification being the usual backdoor route it always is). Society may be growing tired of Tech, but governments aren't, and in fact they're heavily expanding their back channel reliance on not-traditionally-military Tech as an extension of their Defense spending.
Aperocky 3mo ago
Spot on. There's a certain level of drinking the kool-aid or getting high on their own supply. Anthropic is a lot worse than OpenAI but OpenAI had to go through rounds of shedding.
- dofm 3mo ago
  To be maximally fair to them, I think it is difficult to be one of the key businesses in a market bubble and not fall victim to this kind of thinking, especially when the continued inflation of the bubble depends on you — lots of people lose their shirts if you don't push hard to be "special". But as you say, there is a measure of getting high on one's own supply now. And there's the curious solipsistic energy of Sam Altman whimsically musing in public that it turns out his product is too expensive for people and they complain when you make the price realistic (when it possibly needs to be more expensive for OpenAI to survive). They seem to believe that the ordinary rules either will not or somehow must not apply to them; it's increasingly bizarre to watch. Maybe the people around pets.com were this bizarre; we didn't have so much livestreamed interview content to show us.
- trollbridge 3mo ago
  A\ and OpenAI each have their own unique kind of nonsense. I think OpenAI has just been less successful with persuading the rest of the world that they should have all the money in the world. Anthropic has been surprisingly successful at convincing them that they should control frontier models because they're so dangerous that... only Anthropic can be trusted with them. (If they're really so dangerous, the right way to deal with them is through a democratic process and taking them out of the hands of a for-profit private entity.)
  - waffletower 3mo ago
    A democratic process, of sorts, elected the current government of the United States. The president even won the popular vote this round. There is no guarantee that AI guidance by democratic process will be an effective counter to corporate autocracy; and more realistically, AI guidance by an autocratic executive branch is the more likely alternative before 2029.

baq 3mo ago

what Dario wants is to retain any influence whatsover on how the research progresses before the inevitable nationalization of the frontier. he gets to keep the N-2 tech and maybe influence the N-1 tech, but the only influence on the frontier he has is today; whatever he imprints in the pipeline the government takes over. IOW I don't think he thinks in the same categories as most folks here.

stogot 3mo ago
N-1? N-2?
- Avicebron 3mo ago
  Best-possible-model (N) - Two Generations (2), same with N-1, N is the SOTA in this example. I'm not sure that actually clarifies what the comment is trying to say other than they think the models will be nationalized (can't even imagine what that would look like).
  - baq 3mo ago
    basically imagine the Manhattan project, but instead of blowing up the desert they're building the biggest datacenter you've ever seen.
    - Avicebron 3mo ago
      Isn't this the beginning of the plot of "I Have No Mouth, And I Must Scream"? The exceptionally disturbing dystopian horror?
      - baq 3mo ago
        the possible futures after the thing is built are uncountable, but hoping the thing won't get built at this point is naive. in general I agree people should be reading a lot more sci-fi nowadays than they used to.

vbezhenar 3mo ago

But he already got it, no? Claude Fable can only be made available to US citizens, which implies that every user who wants to use Claude Fable must provide proof of citizenship in some way, basically KYC.

misnome 3mo ago
For everyone, not just them
- thefounder 3mo ago
  Exactly that’s what he wants and then there will be a loophole to close: open source models.