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> Anthropic got what they deserved Anthropic got the most rewarding hype ever in the history of mankind. Imagine a private company invents a piece of technolo

> Anthropic got what they deserved Anthropic got the most rewarding hype ever in the history of mankind. Imagine a private company invents a piece of technology soooo good that the US government has to issue a ban. Did the government ban any models from Google or OpenAI? Nah, Russian/Chinese spies and ISIS are welcome to use those dumb models. Anthropic will probably go for $2T IPO now.

MallocVoidstar 3mo ago
It's only rewarding hype if the ban gets dropped. If "foreign Anthropic employees that live in the US can't use Fable/Mythos" stays it harms them, if they don't drop the ban and Fable/Mythos stay limited to "every single person who uses the model must individually provide their ID to prove American-ness" it harms them.
- ergocoder 3mo ago
  It is already a rewarding hype. They are the first company to build a model so advanced that the US government has to ban it. Google and OpenAI will eventually catch up and be banned as well. Therefore, this ban isn't really a huge concern for Anthropic since their competitors will be banned eventually. All this does is proving to investors that Anthropic is indeed ahead of its competitors.
  - fragmede 3mo ago
    By how much? Is Codex-6 that far behind?
    - ergocoder 3mo ago
      Who knows? Even savvy investors wouldn't know. What they know right now is that the model is so advanced the US government has to ban it, and the model comes out of Anthropic. Not Google. Not OpenAI.
  - llelouch 3mo ago
    >OpenAI will eventually catch up and be banned as well. " We have reviewed a report that we believe is the basis of the government's directive and validated that the level of capability displayed there is widely available from other models (including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5)" The administration just doesn't like anthropic. OpenAI is in bed with the trump Administration.
  - MallocVoidstar 3mo ago
    Anthropic refused to allow the US Government to conduct mass surveillance, which made the US Government mad. OpenAI was fine with it as long as it was 'legal' mass surveillance. OpenAI is not going to get banned, even if their next model is both better and more dangerous than Mythos.
    - calgoo 3mo ago
      No, Anthropic refused to allow the US Government to conduct mass surveillance on US Citizens, they where fine with 'legal' mass surveillance of other countries.
- doctorpangloss 3mo ago
  TACO.
Salgat 3mo ago
This is signaling to non-US companies that Anthropic cannot provide reliable access to their models.
- slumpt_ 3mo ago
  Yes, because they’re so bleeding edge and powerful. Whether you believe that is another thing. But that’s the signal. It’s amazing marketing for them, even if a pain in the ass for customers rn
  - ergocoder 3mo ago
    > because they’re so bleeding edge and powerful. Investors will have so much FOMO over this
- timjver 3mo ago
  It's equally signaling that other US-based labs can't provide reliable access to their closed-weight models.
  - jstummbillig 3mo ago
    Not in the same way, no, because they have not been targeted, while they should have if the same rules applied, according to Anthropic's depiction of the situation. This is potential tyranny aimed at Anthropic, specifically.
    - bjohnson225 3mo ago
      For anyone outside the US this is a clear statement that either models are open or they are controlled by an erratic and hostile US government. Being a US ally has become meaningless, and using a company that’s not targeted today does nothing to protect you tomorrow.
      - drstewart 3mo ago
        Europe doesn't seem to care so much about erratic and hostile governments when it cozied up to Russian gas for decades, something it still continues to do just hiding behind third party countries. It's a clear statement that European morals are purely performative Just like how the EU is hostile towards US companies, but very light to the touch when it comes to corruption with HSBC, FIFA or VW. With such hostile and erratic allies, who needs enemies? Let's not even get into Orban. You can never trust the EU again since who knows if they're capable of electing someone like that in the future? Trust is broken forever
muse900 3mo ago
Yes! I mean everyone is speaking about this in a boxed manner. For all we know there are might be several reasons for that ban e.g. 1) There is an actual security threat and its just simple as that. 2) Someone wants Anthropic to be valued way higher and the companies that have invested in Anthropic already... This ban only validates this product and will move the market in higher valuation of Anthropic due to their model being "so good gov had to ban" 3) Someone doesn't like Anthropic and just wants to shut down its current edge (highly unlikely, if there was no IPO filing in place it could be possible but now the valuation just goes up, same as the 2 As that have invested in them) 4) Someone freaked out that we'll be left out of jobs soon so wants to slow down progress, tbh using fable so far I can tell that a lot of jobs can be made redundant cause of that... For me the most likely for now is 2, then 1 and then maybe 4. On June 22 Chatgpt will most likely come out with their new model too, which as I understand will be an answer to mythos. Lets see if the US gov goes the same route.
- petre 3mo ago
  5) Someone freaked out China might use the model to advance its own tech. It's always China with this administration. The guy has an obsession with China since he had to hire feng shui consultants to make his tower appealing¹ for Chinese customers. 1. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/13/donald-trump-feng-shui-master-pun-yin https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/13/donald-trump... Also, might be a way to further screw with Anthrophic because they refused to remove their guardrails Pentagon, getting the opposite result of what was intended.
- holmesworcester 3mo ago
  If (1) then somebody in the administration messed up badly. Glasswing has been a thing since April, and it's common knowledge that there would be some fuzzy edges around whatever restrictions a model has in place. There's no reason to let it launch and then pull it back. (2) This "hype" meme is overrated. Enterprises (ones without a horse in the race, at least) will choose the model their best engineers ask for, or their competitors will lap them. I have been finding Codex more useful (even than Fable) but for a lot of tasks it seems that Claude Code is faster. This is one customer base where the general consensus here on HN is more influential than anything the Trump administration could do or anything Anthropic could say. (3) "US government seems out to kill you" does not necessarily make valuation go up, and we've already seen this administration in an avoidable spat with Anthropic. (4) This seems way less likely than a mix of (1) and (3) to me. The arguments for banning a useful technology to save jobs haven't really made sense since cars or indoor plumbing and don't get taken too seriously in either party at senior levels. That could change but it will take a lot for it to change.
hughw 3mo ago
“Banned in Boston”
esseph 3mo ago
> Anthropic got the most rewarding hype ever in the history of mankind. Nah, SpaceX just IPO'd.
- dalemhurley 3mo ago
  How much of the value of the IPO was based on the revenue from AI data centers?
  - scotty79 3mo ago
    Probably not much, since bulk of the valuation was based on hot air expelled by musk as with all of his ventures.
tyingq 3mo ago
I see what you mean, though ITAR restricted software has been around for decades. It classifies some software as "munitions" :)
DrewADesign 3mo ago
Most valuably, they have a plausible excuse for hitting a financial brick wall before failing to deliver on years of over-promising on real-world business utility.
jstummbillig 3mo ago
> Anthropic got the most rewarding hype ever in the history of mankind. What? Anthropic is not a TikTok sensation. It's a business tool. Businesses need to know their tools work reliably. When you are situated in a banana republic and the chief banana is out to get you (and demonstrates that they can and will on a whim) that is not great hype but a potential death sentence for you as a service provider. You are one degree away from becoming forever branded as unusable. (Theoretically until people trust that a sane administration is in control again, but that might as well be forever on current AI timelines, given how much cashflow you need just to keep going)
- ttttrgrgrg 3mo ago
  [dead]
- scotty79 3mo ago
  > Anthropic is not a TikTok sensation. It pretty much is. Claude is more of a meme than a tool. It's been second best (and more expensive option) for most of the time but people somehow keep talking about it. I'm getting strong Apple vibes from this one.
m3kw9 3mo ago
It’s a marketing stunt, I’m calling it and Anthropic will “fix” it very soon
- londons_explore 3mo ago
  Expensive marketing stunt if users demand refunds from their credit card company for those annual subscriptions on the basis of "service not delivered". Paying for 365 days of service but getting 364 would normally get you a full refund, not just a 1 day credit according to visa/MasterCard rules.
  - LordDragonfang 3mo ago
    Nowhere in the terms of service for any Anthropic product does it guarantee access to Mythos or Fable.
    - TylerE 3mo ago
      In the subscriptions it was already going away on the 22nd until possibly some indefinite future date.
scotty79 3mo ago
Anthropic got out a slightly better model (which is what two companies were doing for more than a year), but at the cost of not being able to provide it within subscription. It build out an inordinate hype around this model. And in the end it was saved by this hype because it doesn't have to admit now that it's never gonna be able to provide this model in volume because gov forbade them from providing it.
Keyframe 3mo ago
Imagine a private company invents a piece of technology soooo good that the US government has to issue a ban. Apple's G4 was banned for export. Although it was not a direct order from US government. They fell into an outdated bracket of computing power exports limits. They sure did use it for advertising it.
- johanyc 3mo ago
  g4 ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoxvLq0dFvw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoxvLq0dFvw
  - resonious 3mo ago
    Looks like "So good the US tried to ban us" is already in the wheelhouse!
- chrsw 3mo ago
  Cryptographic technology has been under various levels of export controls for decades.
aeyes 3mo ago
> Anthropic will probably go for $2T IPO now How does that work? To me it sounds like there is an enormous risk that they get regulated to death. They can't sell their product.
twobitshifter 3mo ago
Might turn out like when the nba banned air jordans.

MallocVoidstar 3mo ago

It's only rewarding hype if the ban gets dropped. If "foreign Anthropic employees that live in the US can't use Fable/Mythos" stays it harms them, if they don't drop the ban and Fable/Mythos stay limited to "every single person who uses the model must individually provide their ID to prove American-ness" it harms them.

ergocoder 3mo ago
It is already a rewarding hype. They are the first company to build a model so advanced that the US government has to ban it. Google and OpenAI will eventually catch up and be banned as well. Therefore, this ban isn't really a huge concern for Anthropic since their competitors will be banned eventually. All this does is proving to investors that Anthropic is indeed ahead of its competitors.
- fragmede 3mo ago
  By how much? Is Codex-6 that far behind?
  - ergocoder 3mo ago
    Who knows? Even savvy investors wouldn't know. What they know right now is that the model is so advanced the US government has to ban it, and the model comes out of Anthropic. Not Google. Not OpenAI.
- llelouch 3mo ago
  >OpenAI will eventually catch up and be banned as well. " We have reviewed a report that we believe is the basis of the government's directive and validated that the level of capability displayed there is widely available from other models (including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5)" The administration just doesn't like anthropic. OpenAI is in bed with the trump Administration.
- MallocVoidstar 3mo ago
  Anthropic refused to allow the US Government to conduct mass surveillance, which made the US Government mad. OpenAI was fine with it as long as it was 'legal' mass surveillance. OpenAI is not going to get banned, even if their next model is both better and more dangerous than Mythos.
  - calgoo 3mo ago
    No, Anthropic refused to allow the US Government to conduct mass surveillance on US Citizens, they where fine with 'legal' mass surveillance of other countries.
doctorpangloss 3mo ago
TACO.

Salgat 3mo ago

This is signaling to non-US companies that Anthropic cannot provide reliable access to their models.

slumpt_ 3mo ago
Yes, because they’re so bleeding edge and powerful. Whether you believe that is another thing. But that’s the signal. It’s amazing marketing for them, even if a pain in the ass for customers rn
- ergocoder 3mo ago
  > because they’re so bleeding edge and powerful. Investors will have so much FOMO over this
timjver 3mo ago
It's equally signaling that other US-based labs can't provide reliable access to their closed-weight models.
- jstummbillig 3mo ago
  Not in the same way, no, because they have not been targeted, while they should have if the same rules applied, according to Anthropic's depiction of the situation. This is potential tyranny aimed at Anthropic, specifically.
  - bjohnson225 3mo ago
    For anyone outside the US this is a clear statement that either models are open or they are controlled by an erratic and hostile US government. Being a US ally has become meaningless, and using a company that’s not targeted today does nothing to protect you tomorrow.
    - drstewart 3mo ago
      Europe doesn't seem to care so much about erratic and hostile governments when it cozied up to Russian gas for decades, something it still continues to do just hiding behind third party countries. It's a clear statement that European morals are purely performative Just like how the EU is hostile towards US companies, but very light to the touch when it comes to corruption with HSBC, FIFA or VW. With such hostile and erratic allies, who needs enemies? Let's not even get into Orban. You can never trust the EU again since who knows if they're capable of electing someone like that in the future? Trust is broken forever

muse900 3mo ago

Yes! I mean everyone is speaking about this in a boxed manner. For all we know there are might be several reasons for that ban e.g. 1) There is an actual security threat and its just simple as that. 2) Someone wants Anthropic to be valued way higher and the companies that have invested in Anthropic already... This ban only validates this product and will move the market in higher valuation of Anthropic due to their model being "so good gov had to ban" 3) Someone doesn't like Anthropic and just wants to shut down its current edge (highly unlikely, if there was no IPO filing in place it could be possible but now the valuation just goes up, same as the 2 As that have invested in them) 4) Someone freaked out that we'll be left out of jobs soon so wants to slow down progress, tbh using fable so far I can tell that a lot of jobs can be made redundant cause of that... For me the most likely for now is 2, then 1 and then maybe 4. On June 22 Chatgpt will most likely come out with their new model too, which as I understand will be an answer to mythos. Lets see if the US gov goes the same route.

petre 3mo ago
5) Someone freaked out China might use the model to advance its own tech. It's always China with this administration. The guy has an obsession with China since he had to hire feng shui consultants to make his tower appealing¹ for Chinese customers. 1. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/13/donald-trump-feng-shui-master-pun-yin https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/13/donald-trump... Also, might be a way to further screw with Anthrophic because they refused to remove their guardrails Pentagon, getting the opposite result of what was intended.
holmesworcester 3mo ago
If (1) then somebody in the administration messed up badly. Glasswing has been a thing since April, and it's common knowledge that there would be some fuzzy edges around whatever restrictions a model has in place. There's no reason to let it launch and then pull it back. (2) This "hype" meme is overrated. Enterprises (ones without a horse in the race, at least) will choose the model their best engineers ask for, or their competitors will lap them. I have been finding Codex more useful (even than Fable) but for a lot of tasks it seems that Claude Code is faster. This is one customer base where the general consensus here on HN is more influential than anything the Trump administration could do or anything Anthropic could say. (3) "US government seems out to kill you" does not necessarily make valuation go up, and we've already seen this administration in an avoidable spat with Anthropic. (4) This seems way less likely than a mix of (1) and (3) to me. The arguments for banning a useful technology to save jobs haven't really made sense since cars or indoor plumbing and don't get taken too seriously in either party at senior levels. That could change but it will take a lot for it to change.

hughw 3mo ago

“Banned in Boston”

esseph 3mo ago

> Anthropic got the most rewarding hype ever in the history of mankind. Nah, SpaceX just IPO'd.

dalemhurley 3mo ago
How much of the value of the IPO was based on the revenue from AI data centers?
- scotty79 3mo ago
  Probably not much, since bulk of the valuation was based on hot air expelled by musk as with all of his ventures.

tyingq 3mo ago

I see what you mean, though ITAR restricted software has been around for decades. It classifies some software as "munitions" :)

DrewADesign 3mo ago

Most valuably, they have a plausible excuse for hitting a financial brick wall before failing to deliver on years of over-promising on real-world business utility.

jstummbillig 3mo ago

> Anthropic got the most rewarding hype ever in the history of mankind. What? Anthropic is not a TikTok sensation. It's a business tool. Businesses need to know their tools work reliably. When you are situated in a banana republic and the chief banana is out to get you (and demonstrates that they can and will on a whim) that is not great hype but a potential death sentence for you as a service provider. You are one degree away from becoming forever branded as unusable. (Theoretically until people trust that a sane administration is in control again, but that might as well be forever on current AI timelines, given how much cashflow you need just to keep going)

ttttrgrgrg 3mo ago
[dead]
scotty79 3mo ago
> Anthropic is not a TikTok sensation. It pretty much is. Claude is more of a meme than a tool. It's been second best (and more expensive option) for most of the time but people somehow keep talking about it. I'm getting strong Apple vibes from this one.

m3kw9 3mo ago

It’s a marketing stunt, I’m calling it and Anthropic will “fix” it very soon

londons_explore 3mo ago
Expensive marketing stunt if users demand refunds from their credit card company for those annual subscriptions on the basis of "service not delivered". Paying for 365 days of service but getting 364 would normally get you a full refund, not just a 1 day credit according to visa/MasterCard rules.
- LordDragonfang 3mo ago
  Nowhere in the terms of service for any Anthropic product does it guarantee access to Mythos or Fable.
  - TylerE 3mo ago
    In the subscriptions it was already going away on the 22nd until possibly some indefinite future date.

scotty79 3mo ago

Anthropic got out a slightly better model (which is what two companies were doing for more than a year), but at the cost of not being able to provide it within subscription. It build out an inordinate hype around this model. And in the end it was saved by this hype because it doesn't have to admit now that it's never gonna be able to provide this model in volume because gov forbade them from providing it.

Keyframe 3mo ago

Imagine a private company invents a piece of technology soooo good that the US government has to issue a ban. Apple's G4 was banned for export. Although it was not a direct order from US government. They fell into an outdated bracket of computing power exports limits. They sure did use it for advertising it.

johanyc 3mo ago
g4 ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoxvLq0dFvw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoxvLq0dFvw
- resonious 3mo ago
  Looks like "So good the US tried to ban us" is already in the wheelhouse!
chrsw 3mo ago
Cryptographic technology has been under various levels of export controls for decades.

aeyes 3mo ago

> Anthropic will probably go for $2T IPO now How does that work? To me it sounds like there is an enormous risk that they get regulated to death. They can't sell their product.

twobitshifter 3mo ago

Might turn out like when the nba banned air jordans.