9 ms·

That's done quietly behind the scenes so leaders can blame something else for inflation. See "M2SL" or "TOTBKCR" on tradingview if you want to see inflation li

That's done quietly behind the scenes so leaders can blame something else for inflation. See "M2SL" or "TOTBKCR" on tradingview if you want to see inflation live.

drivebyhooting 3mo ago
I don’t understand how to read those charts.
- smallmancontrov 3mo ago
  Any time you see a price denominated in $, divide by that chart.
  - stymaar 3mo ago
    The idea that inflation and the money supply are linked is one of the most dumb one in folk economics. Just look at these charts: they were declining when inflation was raging on in 2022-23 …
    - smallmancontrov 3mo ago
      Lagged processes are one of the most fundamental concepts in economics. If merely recognizing the possibility that one could be at play here is throwing you for a loop, you need the simplified monetary model more than most.
      - stymaar 3mo ago
        Where's the hell is the lag on these graphs though!? The money supply grows both before, and after the inflationary spike. (And the fact that it stops increasing when inflation is high is not surprising at all, by the way, high inflation make the central bank raise interest rates, which reduce credit, which is where money comes from).
        smallmancontrov 3mo ago
        The lag is where you were complaining it was.
        stymaar 3mo ago
        Do you know what “lag” means?
    - ryan_j_naughton 3mo ago
      > "The idea that inflation and the money supply are linked is one of the most dumb one in folk economics" "folk economics" implies it is by untrained people. Milton Friedman's famous quote of "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" shows that he deeply believed the relationship between inflation and money supply, and one certainly cannot call Friedman a "folk economist" considering he won the Nobel prize in economics and was a professor at the University of Chicago. Note: I am not saying he is right or supporting his belief. I am merely stating that such a belief is not a "folk economics" belief. This belief is still very prevalent in the freshwater schools of economics. [1] As a personal anecdote, at Ronald Coase's 100th birthday party, I personally got Gary Becker and Richard Posner debating a very related topic (whether and by what degree the velocity of money of fluctuates and whether helicopter drops of cash would have been better during the early days of the money supply collapse in 2008/2009 than just giving money to the banks). In a room full of Nobel Prize winning economists in 2010, there was a very rigorous debate on the topic. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saltwater_and_freshwater_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saltwater_and_freshwater_econo...
      - stymaar 3mo ago
        > "folk economics" implies it is by untrained people. The problem is mostly its appropriation by untrained people though. > Milton Friedman's famous quote of "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" shows that he deeply believed the relationship between inflation and money supply Creationists theoreticians believe in creationism too. The problem arise when their theory reach the mainstream… (Influential people inside the Swedish Central bank making a fake Nobel prize to promote these ideas didn't help of course…)
barrenko 3mo ago
Banks not needing people's money is quite a bad thing. EDIT: M1 looks like a damn sigmoid.
gruez 3mo ago
>See "M2SL" or "TOTBKCR" on tradingview if you want to see inflation live. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR And you would have been massively wrong. People have been complaining about quantitative easing since post GFC, and if you took the figures at face value, those would imply inflation was nearly 100% between the end of GFC and before the pandemic. Whatever you thought about the post-pandemic inflation, the period between GFC and pre-pandemic definitely did not see the level of inflation implied by those figures.
- disgruntledphd2 3mo ago
  I mean, it sortof did in assets, just not in the changes tracked by CPI.
  - downrightmike 3mo ago
    That's because they take and modify what is tracked in the CPI at will
    - gruez 3mo ago
      https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm What do you find controversial, and would cause a material difference in the headline inflation rate?
      - VirusNewbie 3mo ago
        Housing has a massive lag when it comes to CPI. CPI works by asking how much people pay for rent. If home prices raise 20% in one year (not at all unreasonable in various times in the last ten years), it takes a long time for that to be reflected as many people have their rents fixed, some people have rent control, some landlords will only raise rents on new tenants, etc.
        3mo ago

That's done quietly behind the scenes so leaders can blame something else for inflation. See "M2SL" or "TOTBKCR" on tradingview if you want to see inflation live.

drivebyhooting 3mo ago

I don’t understand how to read those charts.

smallmancontrov 3mo ago
Any time you see a price denominated in $, divide by that chart.
- stymaar 3mo ago
  The idea that inflation and the money supply are linked is one of the most dumb one in folk economics. Just look at these charts: they were declining when inflation was raging on in 2022-23 …
  - smallmancontrov 3mo ago
    Lagged processes are one of the most fundamental concepts in economics. If merely recognizing the possibility that one could be at play here is throwing you for a loop, you need the simplified monetary model more than most.
    - stymaar 3mo ago
      Where's the hell is the lag on these graphs though!? The money supply grows both before, and after the inflationary spike. (And the fact that it stops increasing when inflation is high is not surprising at all, by the way, high inflation make the central bank raise interest rates, which reduce credit, which is where money comes from).
      - smallmancontrov 3mo ago
        The lag is where you were complaining it was.
        stymaar 3mo ago
        Do you know what “lag” means?
  - ryan_j_naughton 3mo ago
    > "The idea that inflation and the money supply are linked is one of the most dumb one in folk economics" "folk economics" implies it is by untrained people. Milton Friedman's famous quote of "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" shows that he deeply believed the relationship between inflation and money supply, and one certainly cannot call Friedman a "folk economist" considering he won the Nobel prize in economics and was a professor at the University of Chicago. Note: I am not saying he is right or supporting his belief. I am merely stating that such a belief is not a "folk economics" belief. This belief is still very prevalent in the freshwater schools of economics. [1] As a personal anecdote, at Ronald Coase's 100th birthday party, I personally got Gary Becker and Richard Posner debating a very related topic (whether and by what degree the velocity of money of fluctuates and whether helicopter drops of cash would have been better during the early days of the money supply collapse in 2008/2009 than just giving money to the banks). In a room full of Nobel Prize winning economists in 2010, there was a very rigorous debate on the topic. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saltwater_and_freshwater_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saltwater_and_freshwater_econo...
    - stymaar 3mo ago
      > "folk economics" implies it is by untrained people. The problem is mostly its appropriation by untrained people though. > Milton Friedman's famous quote of "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" shows that he deeply believed the relationship between inflation and money supply Creationists theoreticians believe in creationism too. The problem arise when their theory reach the mainstream… (Influential people inside the Swedish Central bank making a fake Nobel prize to promote these ideas didn't help of course…)

barrenko 3mo ago

Banks not needing people's money is quite a bad thing. EDIT: M1 looks like a damn sigmoid.

gruez 3mo ago

>See "M2SL" or "TOTBKCR" on tradingview if you want to see inflation live. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR And you would have been massively wrong. People have been complaining about quantitative easing since post GFC, and if you took the figures at face value, those would imply inflation was nearly 100% between the end of GFC and before the pandemic. Whatever you thought about the post-pandemic inflation, the period between GFC and pre-pandemic definitely did not see the level of inflation implied by those figures.

disgruntledphd2 3mo ago
I mean, it sortof did in assets, just not in the changes tracked by CPI.
- downrightmike 3mo ago
  That's because they take and modify what is tracked in the CPI at will
  - gruez 3mo ago
    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm What do you find controversial, and would cause a material difference in the headline inflation rate?
    - VirusNewbie 3mo ago
      Housing has a massive lag when it comes to CPI. CPI works by asking how much people pay for rent. If home prices raise 20% in one year (not at all unreasonable in various times in the last ten years), it takes a long time for that to be reflected as many people have their rents fixed, some people have rent control, some landlords will only raise rents on new tenants, etc.
      - 3mo ago