7 ms·
as the article notes, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a commodities futures contract, so I'm not sure how any state law survives a federal pre-e
by mark212 4mo ago
as the article notes, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a commodities futures contract, so I'm not sure how any state law survives a federal pre-emption challenge. On the other hand, it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf. Would've expected a class action by a Minnesota user of the service to bring the challenge instead.
- ranger207 4mo agoI'm curious to see how this works out, because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit, and Kalshi etc's argument that states can't regulate them because they're not technically sports betting is contrary to the spirit of the law
- nojito 4mo agoThere’s no “house” or “book” aspect to Kalshi. They are nothing more than contracts that are bought and sold between individuals.
- SoftTalker 4mo agoHow do they make money?
- nojito 4mo agoJust like other exchanges. They charge trading fees.
- hilariously 4mo agoWhat about the special partners that put up bets that are basically just methods to launder the fact that there's a house?
- dymk 4mo agoThey also place their own bets within their own market. They don't just make money on trading fees.
- loeg 4mo agoKalshi does not trade against its users.
- dymk 4mo agoThat's their PR department talking. https://straighttothepoint.substack.com/p/you-cant-have-it-both-ways https://straighttothepoint.substack.com/p/you-cant-have-it-b... https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi-trading-exchange-peer-house-1234870465/ https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi...
- tantalor 4mo agoKalshi definitely does this They just don't make any money off it.
- nojito 4mo agoA different entity provides liquidity. There’s no house like in sportsbooks.
- jeltz 4mo agoAnd there is no house in pool betting, poker or backgammon either. We still count all of them including betting exchanges (what has now been rebranded as prediction markets) are still normally regulated as gambling.
- nojito 4mo agoNot in the US.
- tsimionescu 4mo ago
- tshaddox 4mo agoLots of types of contracts bought and sold between individuals are prohibited by law.
- tantalor 4mo agoThey problem is the federal government considers these particular contracts are generally legal, and the states have no authority.
- jeltz 4mo agoHave you heard of Betfair? A UK company which has done "prediction markets" since 2000. In the Europe it is called a betting exchange and regulated like sports betting. And betting pools is another form of betting which is way older than that and there are no house in them either. And by your argument poker or backgammon would not be gambling either.
- nojito 4mo ago>And by your argument poker or backgammon would not be gambling either. They aren't. A sportsbook explicitly sets lines and you are betting that the line they set is incorrect.
- cortesoft 4mo ago> because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit Traditionally it has not been, but the current CFTC says that 'prediction bets on sports' ARE under their purview. This has not been fully challenged in court, though.
- oatmeal1 4mo agoIf Congress intended for the CFTC to regulate sports betting, it would have had that language in the act that originated the agency. It's telling that only recently the CFTC has discovered such authority. No previous leadership of the CFTC read the act to mean what the current leadership thinks it means.
- Spooky23 4mo agoThis is 2026. We don’t need your stinking laws.
- jeltz 4mo agoWhat if CFTC would start to claim they are allowed to regulate online casinos or online poker? I feel that would be about as non-sensical.
- jimt1234 4mo agohttps://www.cnn.com/2026/03/21/politics/trump-prediction-markets-truth-predicts https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/21/politics/trump-prediction-mar...
- kevin_thibedeau 4mo ago> it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf. This is Don Jr's consulting fee at work.
- unethical_ban 4mo agoThis should not be downvoted and is a legitimate criticism. Trump Jr. has a "special advisory role" in both Kalshi and polymarket. It would track with this administration to deploy a rapid defense of a corruption generation market where the current president's son is getting paid off by the two main competitors in the market.
- thallium205 4mo agoNevada was able to get it banned. The casino pull is huge.