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This has massive strategic implications for the US. The US couldn't protect its bases in the middle east from a middle power like Iran and in fact its bases wer

by statguy 5mo ago

This has massive strategic implications for the US. The US couldn't protect its bases in the middle east from a middle power like Iran and in fact its bases were the reason that its "allies" in the gulf were attacked. Iran would have no reason to attack those allies otherwise. The US has also shown that Israel is the only ally that it really cares about. Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia are taking notes. Prediction: there is not going to be a war over Taiwan - Taiwan will gradually come to a Hong Kong like agreement with China.

_DeadFred_ 5mo ago
[flagged]
- watwut 5mo ago
  China not intervening in Venezuela or Iran situation does not make them paper tigers. It makes them ... not idiots. They are not interrupting the ennemy while that ennemy makes a mistake. And also, saying that "US struck and removed most military threats in Iran in a few weeks" is massive overstatement. Iran military targets went from being obliterated, to almost half destroyed, to 60% remain working and active, to "a lot more then we think is still functional" which only god and Iran knows what it means.
  - AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
    China-supplied hardware doing nothing useful may make them a paper tiger. May. The problem is that China probably doesn't sell their top-of-the-line stuff, so we don't really know.
actionfromafar 5mo ago
That's a pretty wild prediction - Taiwan is also a middle power and could beef up if it wants to.
peruvia 5mo ago
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nradov 5mo ago
Nah. Seeing how China reneged on the "one country, two systems" promise and wrecked Hong Kong has turned the Taiwanese people more firmly against reunification. Iran would be attacking other nearby states regardless of whether they host US military bases. Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups. Personally I favor a less interventionist US foreign policy but even if we completely disengaged from the Middle East it would still be a violent neighborhood — probably even more so.
- pazimzadeh 5mo ago
  > Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups The US has a longer history of aggression and sponsoring terrorist groups: Exclusive: CIA Files Prove America Helped Saddam as He Gassed Iran https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-pro... During the Iran–Iraq War, which began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran on 22 September 1980,[1] the United States adopted a policy of providing support to Iraq in the form of several billion dollars' worth of economic aid, dual-use technology, intelligence sharing (e.g., IMINT), and special operations training.[2] This U.S. support, along with support from most of the Arab world, proved vital in helping Iraq sustain military operations against Iran.[3] The documented sale of dual-use technology, with one notable example being Iraq's acquisition of 45 Bell helicopters in 1985,[4][5] was effectively a workaround for a ban on direct arms transfers; U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East dictated that Iraq was a state sponsor of terrorism because of the Iraqi government's historical ties with groups like the Palestinian Liberation Front and the Abu Nidal Organization, among others.[6] However, this designation was removed in 1982 to facilitate broader support for the Iraqis as the conflict dragged on in Iran's favour. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq...
  - _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
    [flagged]
    - 5mo ago
Balgair 5mo ago
> Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia are taking notes. Donny also goes back on his word constantly. Look at all the trade agreements that he signed before 'liberation day'. Look at really everything afterwards too. Even if Iran wanted to sign something, they can't. It will mean nothing. They know that.
aaron695 5mo ago
[dead]

by statguy 5mo ago

_DeadFred_ 5mo ago

[flagged]

watwut 5mo ago
China not intervening in Venezuela or Iran situation does not make them paper tigers. It makes them ... not idiots. They are not interrupting the ennemy while that ennemy makes a mistake. And also, saying that "US struck and removed most military threats in Iran in a few weeks" is massive overstatement. Iran military targets went from being obliterated, to almost half destroyed, to 60% remain working and active, to "a lot more then we think is still functional" which only god and Iran knows what it means.
- AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
  China-supplied hardware doing nothing useful may make them a paper tiger. May. The problem is that China probably doesn't sell their top-of-the-line stuff, so we don't really know.

actionfromafar 5mo ago

That's a pretty wild prediction - Taiwan is also a middle power and could beef up if it wants to.

peruvia 5mo ago

[dead]

nradov 5mo ago

Nah. Seeing how China reneged on the "one country, two systems" promise and wrecked Hong Kong has turned the Taiwanese people more firmly against reunification. Iran would be attacking other nearby states regardless of whether they host US military bases. Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups. Personally I favor a less interventionist US foreign policy but even if we completely disengaged from the Middle East it would still be a violent neighborhood — probably even more so.

pazimzadeh 5mo ago
> Iran has a long history of aggression, including sponsoring terrorist groups The US has a longer history of aggression and sponsoring terrorist groups: Exclusive: CIA Files Prove America Helped Saddam as He Gassed Iran https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-pro... During the Iran–Iraq War, which began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran on 22 September 1980,[1] the United States adopted a policy of providing support to Iraq in the form of several billion dollars' worth of economic aid, dual-use technology, intelligence sharing (e.g., IMINT), and special operations training.[2] This U.S. support, along with support from most of the Arab world, proved vital in helping Iraq sustain military operations against Iran.[3] The documented sale of dual-use technology, with one notable example being Iraq's acquisition of 45 Bell helicopters in 1985,[4][5] was effectively a workaround for a ban on direct arms transfers; U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East dictated that Iraq was a state sponsor of terrorism because of the Iraqi government's historical ties with groups like the Palestinian Liberation Front and the Abu Nidal Organization, among others.[6] However, this designation was removed in 1982 to facilitate broader support for the Iraqis as the conflict dragged on in Iran's favour. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq...
- _DeadFred_ 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - 5mo ago

Balgair 5mo ago

> Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia are taking notes. Donny also goes back on his word constantly. Look at all the trade agreements that he signed before 'liberation day'. Look at really everything afterwards too. Even if Iran wanted to sign something, they can't. It will mean nothing. They know that.

aaron695 5mo ago

[dead]