8 ms·

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822

FrustratedMonky 5mo ago
> "obscene" And yet, it is the wisdom of the crowds. The crowds being obscene. Aren't we all constantly hitting re-fresh for updates, and making predictions. The prediction markets are just consolidating that 'desire'.
- tomtomtom777 5mo ago
  Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.
  - FrustratedMonky 5mo ago
    I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome. Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself. In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.
    - tomtomtom777 5mo ago
      You don't have to imagine some giant conspiracy. Fact is, that everyone can make a bet, and there are a lot of people with knowledge and influence in the political decisions made. In sports, at least the outcome is only effected by the sportsmen. Here, who knows which and how many people have inside knowledge and influence that they can use that to their financial advantage?
      - FrustratedMonky 5mo ago
        Yeah. I have to agree. My view has changed in last week. I never imagined that markets could be so corrupted by those in power, without some other consequences somehow balancing out. Like being arrested, or removed from office. Forget PolyMarket. We literally have bets being made on oil futures, directly before a tweet by the president. Openly profiting on direct minute by minute manipulation. Openly corrupt.
    - antonvs 5mo ago
      > Who could have foreseen Economists. They even have a term for this, dating back to the late 1800s: "moral hazard". Polymarket creates moral hazard when participants can profit from outcomes they can influence.
    - verdverm 5mo ago
      > In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. On the other hand, since you can bet on individual pitches, you no longer have to throw the game, just the right pitch at the right time. A couple of players were caught, but who knows how widespread this really is... https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46917665/mlb-betting-guardians-clase-ortiz-pitch-rigging-indictments https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46917665/mlb-betting-gua... https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/two-current-major-league-baseball-players-charged-sports-betting-and-money-laundering https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/two-current-major-leagu... The focus on making money above all else, as a cultural dynamic, is degrading the human experience. It increasingly seeps into more aspects of our lives and is part of the broader Trustpocalypse.
- heavyset_go 5mo ago
  Putting bounties on people's heads and public lynchings are the wisdom of crowds and its obscenity in action.
  - FrustratedMonky 5mo ago
    Humans need entertainment. Running Man was a prediction, coming true.
- ryanschaefer 5mo ago
  For me, I had a similar reaction to the original commenter. I thought about it more and realized it’s the “via Polymarket” tag on it. It reads like an advertisement. I don’t need to know the exact market the figure is from. Someone could even combine multiple ones and I still wouldn’t want to know.
nodesocket 5mo ago
By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.
- foxes 5mo ago
  Yes
- micromacrofoot 5mo ago
  objectively so
- tomtomtom777 5mo ago
  Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future. But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such direct incentives.
  - nodesocket 5mo ago
    Shaping the future for “good” is not investing. That is ESG and if you value capital and capital appreciation ESG has been proven not to be a solid strategy. See also altruistic capitalism with such moral people as Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton and Adam Neumann. Solid list of moral people shaping the future.
    - sharmajai 5mo ago
      Who said investing is _only_ for "capital and capital appreciation"? It can also be for social good.
    - tomtomtom777 5mo ago
      Wow. I am not sure how to respond to this as you seem to have a completely different mindset. You mean to say it is "proven" not to be a solid strategy as in not maximizing profit? Surely, you acknowledge that funding something is a rather direct way of actively supporting it. It is your money and your choice of what you choose to invest it in, and thus how you choose to shape the future. If you buy OIL to make money, you are still responsible for the additional investment made in oil, and are still shaping the future, whether you like it or not.
DaedalusII 5mo ago
why dont UK start enforcing the Marine Insurance Act 1745 to combat this or the Life insurance act maybe 1775 this law literally make it illegal to gamble on marine risk that you do not have direct economic interest in
- colechristensen 5mo ago
  Are they? Is there a prediction market available in the UK which allows you to place these bets? They're regulated like gambling there.
  - roryirvine 5mo ago
    Bookmakers and betting exchanges regulated in the UK have always been pretty careful about not adding unlawful markets. Anything that relies directly or indirectly on the death of a real person is covered outlawed by the Life Assurance Act, so you've never been able to bet on things like fatal crashes in an F1 race or the date of the start of the next monarch's reign. The Marine Insurance Act is a new one on me, but I've never seen anything which would obviously violate that. There's plenty of spread betting on oil, but mostly on prices and volumes, not the fate of individual cargoes.
zeofig 5mo ago
I agree polymarket is "bad", but it's also highly relevant and should absolutely be included in this web page.
- afavour 5mo ago
  Why is it highly relevant? It’s a bunch of people betting on the outcome.
  - furyofantares 5mo ago
    I've spent years watching prediction markets and finding them to be, by a wide margin, the most accurate way for me to understand the world. It is not remotely close. It sucks that they're going mainstream, providing incentives to bad actors to profit from their power, and it sucks that they've gone so heavily for the predatory gambling market to boot. I really hate this duality.
    - verdverm 5mo ago
      > the most accurate way for me to understand the world Are you sure it's not survivorship bias or similar? I've seen multiple trend lines that are very confident only to switch to the opposite outcome at the very end.
      - pgodzin 5mo ago
        Are you sure you're not the one seeing the survivorship bias? Something that is 10% likely to happen ends up switching to the opposite outcome at the very end 1/10 times. There are thousands of prediction markets up at any given time, so there are going to be plenty of examples of unlikely events happening. But there is plenty of research on how well-calibrated they are. For example, https://polymarket.com/accuracy https://polymarket.com/accuracy
        verdverm 5mo ago
        Prediction markets, like many other micro-financialization trends, is unhealthy for society. I'm not going to trust research from the very company selling the product. History provides ample examples of how that works without the need to gamble on it. I would invite you to look into the statistics on foreclosures, bankruptcy, and gambling hotline traffic which compare jurisdictions that have allowed this stuff vs not. Those with demographic breakdowns help to show those most at risk.
voidfunc 5mo ago
People don't matter, only outcomes

FrustratedMonky 5mo ago

> "obscene" And yet, it is the wisdom of the crowds. The crowds being obscene. Aren't we all constantly hitting re-fresh for updates, and making predictions. The prediction markets are just consolidating that 'desire'.

tomtomtom777 5mo ago
Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.
- FrustratedMonky 5mo ago
  I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome. Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself. In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.
  - tomtomtom777 5mo ago
    You don't have to imagine some giant conspiracy. Fact is, that everyone can make a bet, and there are a lot of people with knowledge and influence in the political decisions made. In sports, at least the outcome is only effected by the sportsmen. Here, who knows which and how many people have inside knowledge and influence that they can use that to their financial advantage?
    - FrustratedMonky 5mo ago
      Yeah. I have to agree. My view has changed in last week. I never imagined that markets could be so corrupted by those in power, without some other consequences somehow balancing out. Like being arrested, or removed from office. Forget PolyMarket. We literally have bets being made on oil futures, directly before a tweet by the president. Openly profiting on direct minute by minute manipulation. Openly corrupt.
  - antonvs 5mo ago
    > Who could have foreseen Economists. They even have a term for this, dating back to the late 1800s: "moral hazard". Polymarket creates moral hazard when participants can profit from outcomes they can influence.
  - verdverm 5mo ago
    > In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. On the other hand, since you can bet on individual pitches, you no longer have to throw the game, just the right pitch at the right time. A couple of players were caught, but who knows how widespread this really is... https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46917665/mlb-betting-guardians-clase-ortiz-pitch-rigging-indictments https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46917665/mlb-betting-gua... https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/two-current-major-league-baseball-players-charged-sports-betting-and-money-laundering https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/two-current-major-leagu... The focus on making money above all else, as a cultural dynamic, is degrading the human experience. It increasingly seeps into more aspects of our lives and is part of the broader Trustpocalypse.
heavyset_go 5mo ago
Putting bounties on people's heads and public lynchings are the wisdom of crowds and its obscenity in action.
- FrustratedMonky 5mo ago
  Humans need entertainment. Running Man was a prediction, coming true.
ryanschaefer 5mo ago
For me, I had a similar reaction to the original commenter. I thought about it more and realized it’s the “via Polymarket” tag on it. It reads like an advertisement. I don’t need to know the exact market the figure is from. Someone could even combine multiple ones and I still wouldn’t want to know.

nodesocket 5mo ago

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

foxes 5mo ago
Yes
micromacrofoot 5mo ago
objectively so
tomtomtom777 5mo ago
Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future. But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such direct incentives.
- nodesocket 5mo ago
  Shaping the future for “good” is not investing. That is ESG and if you value capital and capital appreciation ESG has been proven not to be a solid strategy. See also altruistic capitalism with such moral people as Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton and Adam Neumann. Solid list of moral people shaping the future.
  - sharmajai 5mo ago
    Who said investing is _only_ for "capital and capital appreciation"? It can also be for social good.
  - tomtomtom777 5mo ago
    Wow. I am not sure how to respond to this as you seem to have a completely different mindset. You mean to say it is "proven" not to be a solid strategy as in not maximizing profit? Surely, you acknowledge that funding something is a rather direct way of actively supporting it. It is your money and your choice of what you choose to invest it in, and thus how you choose to shape the future. If you buy OIL to make money, you are still responsible for the additional investment made in oil, and are still shaping the future, whether you like it or not.

DaedalusII 5mo ago

why dont UK start enforcing the Marine Insurance Act 1745 to combat this or the Life insurance act maybe 1775 this law literally make it illegal to gamble on marine risk that you do not have direct economic interest in

colechristensen 5mo ago
Are they? Is there a prediction market available in the UK which allows you to place these bets? They're regulated like gambling there.
- roryirvine 5mo ago
  Bookmakers and betting exchanges regulated in the UK have always been pretty careful about not adding unlawful markets. Anything that relies directly or indirectly on the death of a real person is covered outlawed by the Life Assurance Act, so you've never been able to bet on things like fatal crashes in an F1 race or the date of the start of the next monarch's reign. The Marine Insurance Act is a new one on me, but I've never seen anything which would obviously violate that. There's plenty of spread betting on oil, but mostly on prices and volumes, not the fate of individual cargoes.

zeofig 5mo ago

I agree polymarket is "bad", but it's also highly relevant and should absolutely be included in this web page.

afavour 5mo ago
Why is it highly relevant? It’s a bunch of people betting on the outcome.
- furyofantares 5mo ago
  I've spent years watching prediction markets and finding them to be, by a wide margin, the most accurate way for me to understand the world. It is not remotely close. It sucks that they're going mainstream, providing incentives to bad actors to profit from their power, and it sucks that they've gone so heavily for the predatory gambling market to boot. I really hate this duality.
  - verdverm 5mo ago
    > the most accurate way for me to understand the world Are you sure it's not survivorship bias or similar? I've seen multiple trend lines that are very confident only to switch to the opposite outcome at the very end.
    - pgodzin 5mo ago
      Are you sure you're not the one seeing the survivorship bias? Something that is 10% likely to happen ends up switching to the opposite outcome at the very end 1/10 times. There are thousands of prediction markets up at any given time, so there are going to be plenty of examples of unlikely events happening. But there is plenty of research on how well-calibrated they are. For example, https://polymarket.com/accuracy https://polymarket.com/accuracy
      - verdverm 5mo ago
        Prediction markets, like many other micro-financialization trends, is unhealthy for society. I'm not going to trust research from the very company selling the product. History provides ample examples of how that works without the need to gamble on it. I would invite you to look into the statistics on foreclosures, bankruptcy, and gambling hotline traffic which compare jurisdictions that have allowed this stuff vs not. Those with demographic breakdowns help to show those most at risk.

voidfunc 5mo ago

People don't matter, only outcomes