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'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and bu
by hydroflame7 6mo ago
'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.
- bluetidepro 6mo agoI believe they are (maybe indirectly on some though): https://www.actionnetwork.com/education/tracking-prediction-market-lawsuits https://www.actionnetwork.com/education/tracking-prediction-...
- qoez 6mo agoThey totally are tho. And at the same time trying to win via the loophole if it doesn't close by launching their own efforts
- heavyset_go 6mo agoIf I made a platform like that, I'd be RICO'd after the FBI kicked down my door and confiscated everything I own. If I had the connections Polymarket does, well, then we can just place bets on when people will die, everything will work out just fine and the President will invest in me.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- mothballed 6mo agoIf you don't mind not having US customers, it's easy enough to get an online gambling license in a few jurisdictions, maybe $20-50k all in (Nevis and Anjouan are a couple of the more notable ones), at which point you can serve a large portion of the world. This was basically the scenario polymarket was in for awhile until they started making inroads into US regulatory apparatus.
- heavyset_go 6mo agoWasn't there a crypto betting platform that was operating outside of the US, blocked US traffic and the US still went after them? I don't remember any specifics, or if I'm remembering anything right at all, but I feel like I read something about that.
- HWR_14 6mo agoKalshi has Trump Jr on its board and is federally regulated. I'm not sure FanDuel and DraftKings will win that fight for the next 3 years.
- markdown 6mo ago[flagged]
- owlninja 6mo agoActually I believe DraftKings just added a prediction market...
- bko 6mo agoI prefer prediction markets to gambling because the platform isn't the bookmaker. This reduces the adverse selection of players. For instance, if you actually win regularly on these platforms they'll actually ban you, much like a casino. My understanding of prediction markets is that it's pure market making which is preferable
- kibwen 6mo ago> I prefer prediction markets to gambling because the platform isn't the bookmaker. Just because you prefer poker to slots, that doesn't suddenly mean that poker isn't gambling.
- FajitaNachos 6mo agopoker and slots are two very different variants of gambling. Sure, there is plenty of chance/variance in poker but there is an undeniable skill component that is lacking in slots.
- AlexandrB 6mo agoThe one that really infuriates me is blackjack where - if you apply skill by counting cards - you get kicked out of the casino.
- kqr 6mo agoThis has always been the case for most high-stakes gambling. The problem isn't winning big, the problem is getting the counterparty to pay. Skilled gamblers (when it comes to games with any skill component) throughout history have been adept at winning subtly and then moving on before anyone figures out they have an edge.
- bko 6mo agoWhere did I say it wasn't gambling. I said prediction markets are preferable to sports books like DraftKings. I don't like either personally but its an important distinction
- paulddraper 6mo agoIt truly is insane. The CFTC is granting "no-action" exemptions on the basis of....nothing, really. The "educational" value of these markets.
- pigeons 6mo agoOn the basis of nothing, or on the basis of gifts and connections?
- brendanfinan 6mo agothe Kalshi legal team is a revolving door with the CFTC
- cryptoegorophy 6mo agoAnd there is a kid’s legal version! They sell them in Walmart - Pokémon packs. I don’t know how any of this is legal in a civilized country.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- Jblx2 6mo agoDon't forget the other children's gambling trainers: https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=claw+machine&ia=images&iax=images https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=claw+machine&ia=images&iax=...
- markdown 6mo agoThe average kid at these places thinks they're a skill-based game, so they aren't gambling any more than they are when they shoot hoops.
- voxic11 6mo agoKids version has been around my entire life (baseball cards) it even used to come with bubblegum!
- joquarky 6mo agoIt was like sweetened emulsified chalk. I kind of miss it.
- paulryanrogers 6mo agoI have mixed feelings being a parent now. It can be fun to get a mystery box or pack. But it does feed on the anticipation and rush of surprise. Kids seem to lack the self control to stop. Video games seem the worst to me since they're so intangible it's easier to get carried away before others notice.
- parpfish 6mo ago
- sam0x17 6mo agoEspecially when the "prediction" part isn't even part of the product, it is an accidental byproduct. No one pays for access to the predictions. And they aren't predictions, they are more like "outcome-shaping" markets, since the more liquidity that gets dumped on a particular outcome, the more motivation there is to tamper with the real-world outcome, and at a certain point it will just always happen if it is billions of dollars. The higher the liquidity involved, the less likely the real world outcome ends up being the same as it would have been if the prediction market had never existed. Very messy.
- mhh__ 6mo agoThose predictions are just market data, market data is often very expensive (my data usage at work is probably about $100k a year and i'm not even a trader), I imagine polymarket will be too when they are more established.
- kqr 6mo agoHappens already. Selling market data is part of how they finance themselves.
- Zigurd 6mo agoTraders sometimes go to prison for insider trading. The wisdom of the crowd human when the crowd is following someone with insider information is deemed legal.
- pixl97 6mo ago>Those predictions are just market data, Any kind of fraud is just market data when you pay enough for it.
- sam0x17 6mo agoIt's inherently free data. You have to be able to trade against it, and to trade against it you need to see it _before_ you give them money, so they can basically never charge for it. When they sell it to people, it's just laziness, they could scrape it themselves. edit: apparently they do, that's even more wild lol
- Ferret7446 6mo agoActually, prediction markets are closer to stock markets (insofar as you consider stock trading to be gambling). Insider trading is the bigger issue
- pc86 6mo agoI've heard people say this but it really only makes sense if you don't think about it for more than 10 or 20 seconds. Prediction markets by definition always resolve to one side being completely wiped out and losing everything. Stocks going to zero happens pretty seldomly, in prediction markets it's guaranteed to happen every single time.
- slibhb 6mo agoThat's only true if you leave your money in...which you don't have to do. You can play prediction markets by betting on a swing. E.g. I made a few hundred dollars betting on Harris in 2024 when Trump was at ~65% odds and then selling before the election when it was closer to 50%.
- JumpCrisscross 6mo ago> can play prediction markets by betting on a swing The outcomes are still capped. In that respect, it's more like a derivative market than the stock market. You can trade in and out of options. But the value in the system is tightly defined and, after fees, a net negative-sum game.
- kqr 6mo agoThere are no fees on Polymarket. Not sure about others.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- kasey_junk 6mo ago
- skippyboxedhero 6mo agoBoth have a prediction market product.
- parpfish 6mo agoI thought the “daily fantasy” loophole was pretty silly too.