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Bet on German Train Delays
- malklera 7mo agoI was convinced it was a scam till I read the about, a nice thing for the locals. In Argentina, you can have delays too, as in "there are no trains today".
- storus 7mo agoAny ICE passing Frankfurt is a guaranteed 30 minute delay. Too easy to win.
- mimischi 7mo agoFor context, David Kriesel gave the infamous talk called “BahnMining” at 36C3 highlighting this. IIUC it’s only available in German: https://youtu.be/0rb9CfOvojk https://youtu.be/0rb9CfOvojk
- fhars 7mo agoWatch the original, there you can select an English simultaneous translation: https://media.ccc.de/v/36c3-10652-bahnmining_-_punktlichkeit_ist_eine_zier#l=eng&t=58 https://media.ccc.de/v/36c3-10652-bahnmining_-_punktlichkeit...
- okanat 7mo agoThat's the minimum though. It can surely escalate to 5 hours with people on the tracks.
- amelius 7mo agoWhere can I bet when this will be taken down? (Asking since polymarket is forbidden in DE)
- anielsen 7mo agoCountdown to someone pulling the emergency brake because they have a lot of money at stake
- jonplackett 7mo agoDamn someone foiled my plan already.
- baxtr 7mo ago+ the conductors driving more slowly
- ferguess_k 7mo agoNo insider betting! Ethics, ethics!!
- 7ewis 7mo agoSite is down, archive link: https://web.archive.org/web/20260303171349/https://bahn.bet/ https://web.archive.org/web/20260303171349/https://bahn.bet/
- baxtr 7mo agoIs there a site where I can bet on site reliability?
- lordnacho 7mo agoThis is a great business plan. Since downdetector has been bought, we can make a new site, where people can bet on what sites will be down. The whole market can be automated fairly easily to check whether a given website is responding. This should divert a substantial proportion of the world's DDoS capacity.
- baxtr 7mo agoThis made me think of another idea for you/us: Bet on which companies will be hacked next! Divert some hacker capacity…
- irthomasthomas 7mo agoPeople used to bet on ships sinking and sailors drowning. Till they learned better. Edit: This was common until Parliament passed the Marine Insurance Act of 1745. Before that, speculators could take out "wagering policies" on vessels they had no connection to. This created "coffin ships" - unseaworthy vessels sent to sea because the insurance payout for a wreck was worth more than the ship itself. The law introduced "insurable interest," meaning you cannot bet on a disaster unless you stand to lose something if it happens. This removed the incentive for sabotage and murder for profit. Modern prediction markets are heading toward the same problem. Betting on train delays or bridge collapses without having any stake gives bad actors a reason to cause it. If the cost of sabotage is lower than the payout, the market effectively pays for the disaster to happen. Whoever downvoted this wants you to ignore centuries of legal precedent designed to prevent exactly this kind of blood money. Those who ignore the lessons of the past learn wisdom in blood... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffin_ship_(insurance)#:~:text=A%20coffin%20ship,sunk%20than%20afloat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffin_ship_(insurance)#:~:tex... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Insurance_Act_1745#:~:text=The%20purpose%20of,policies%20against%20gambling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Insurance_Act_1745#:~:t...
- baxtr 7mo agoCould you elaborate?
- black_13 7mo ago[dead]
- xiconfjs 7mo agoDBSM :D
- eigenspace 7mo agoThe proliferation of online gambling is IMO one of the bigger under-reported trends in modern society, and has a real potential for massive externalities throughout society.
- ekjhgkejhgk 7mo agoAgree on under-reported. But what externalities?
- skrebbel 7mo agoMore gambling addicts in gutters.
- valleyer 7mo agoAddiction. Misappropriation of others' secrets. Perverse incentives.
- nannal 7mo agoAs a German train driver this excites me greatly.
- whazor 7mo agoThere are (illegal) ways to delay trains as a person
- moooo99 7mo agoShould be noted that this is just a meme, nothing with real money. Its a joke based on the constant delay of DB trains
- eigenspace 7mo agoHaving a gambling addict in your life can be just as destructive if not more destructive as having a drug addict in your life. This is something that most people don't currently understand because most people don't really have much experience with gambling addicts and the sort of horrible things they will do to satisfy their cravings, but as the amount of gamblers in society grows explosively, we're all going to be feeling the effects of being surrounded by these people.
- shafyy 7mo ago> No real money is exchanged on this platform. All caßh is fictional, virtual, and entirely made up, much like Deutsche Bahn's timetable. Sick burn hahaha
- InfinityByTen 7mo agoYou surely haven't read the whole of it. There's more! > Sinderella She has to leave the ball by midnight — but her last train was cancelled. Now she roams the platform in glass slippers, waiting for a replacement bus.
- shafyy 7mo agoHahaha, I missed that. Amazing! Great copy writing right there.
- asddubs 7mo agoeverything in this world will be turned into gambling. this stuff is a cancer on society
- trigvi 7mo agoEvery single thing one does in life is a gamble that carries a probability of success. Getting a degree. Investing in a business. Investing in a relationship. Having kids. Smoking. Booking a flight cheaper but with no possibility of cancellation. Moving town. Not moving town. I could go on forever. Everything is a gamble. Some forms of gambling are more socially acceptable than others. The difference, in everyhthing, is emotional control and knowing how much you stand to lose if it goes wrong.
- fraboniface 7mo agoWe'll have won politics the day people understand that individual responsibility doesn't work at scale, and that, on average, people just respond to incentives.
- philipallstar 7mo agoIf you don't incentivise individual responsibility, you don't get it.
- gzread 7mo agoThe difference is that "good gambling" has a positive expectation value. Getting a degree confers knowledge that you think enables you to do new and valuable things that exceed the cost of the degree. Booking without cancellation saves money on average if you are more certain of your travel plans than the airline. Smoking makes you feel good, I'm told. I wouldn't do that.
- croisillon 7mo agofor the people who wouldn't have inadvertently clicked on the website: it's not real money, it's a campaign to nudge the German provider to care about their infamous delays
- palata 7mo agoI am pretty sure that they know about the delays. A nice thing about the Deutsche Bahn is that they exist. It's not the case in every country in the world. Sure, they can improve, but it seems possible. The French SNCF has improved a lot in the last decade, for instance.
- gzread 7mo agoThis is true. DB trains get me from one point to another point, and in my experience, are usually not more than a few hours delayed end-to-end. Remember that if your train is delayed more than a certain amount (30 minutes?) you have the legal right to ignore the routing on your ticket and take any train you want, that leads towards the destination on your ticket. Consider it an adventure. The app can suggest alternative routes in real-time, and you can also ask at the info desk at any station that has one.
- trueismywork 7mo agoHuge number of people use DB for regional transport for commute. They get affected by 10 mins delay since connections are missed
- mafuy 7mo agoThe free choice of train does take this into account. You just need a (single!) ticket that, overall, will expectedly suffer from a delay long enough.
- mafuy 7mo agoNitpick: Unless it changed, you cannot upgrade from regional to interregional vehicles. You can upgrade from IC to ICE, though, and in general, the free choice of vehicle on your route is very useful.
- pjmlp 7mo agoYeah, unfortunely it isn't that hard to win a bit, the situation has become relatively bad with delays on average of 30m, and even need to switch trains, better have a few alternative routes at hand, as plan on how to continue the trip when a connection is lost.
- lencastre 7mo agoMeine Güte…
- TonyTrapp 7mo ago…rzüge?
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- kachnuv_ocasek 7mo agoPerfect for hedging the emotional damage on my daily commute in monetary units.
- thisOtterBeGood 7mo agoIf a responsible person is reading: The confirmation link of the email-verification doesn't work (at least for me)
- surrTurr 7mo agoif you want to look up historic delay data (to make better guesses) you can use zugspaet: https://zugspaet.de/ https://zugspaet.de/
- InfinityByTen 7mo agoI was considering trains for a Berlin-Frankfurt trip, and after looking at the performance of the preferred train, I'm not sure I want to still go that way: 25% cancellations :/
- gzread 7mo agoIf your train is cancelled, you can take the next train or a different train, without buying a new ticket. The app will tell you this.
- wink 7mo agoSo 3h of sitting on the floor because there's no seat after a canceled one? I mean yes, better than no transport, but it's ridiculous. And if you have an appointment in the morning, 2h of delay are a deal breaker.
- ilikerashers 7mo agoGerman trains are absolute chaos. Tickets are sent via PDF for trains running 3 hours late. I was in Frankfurt last year getting to Cologne and back a few times. Coming from someone who has to commute via South Western railway into London everyday. Sad state of affairs for Germany.
- NikxDa 7mo agoGerman trains have very much to complain about, but honestly, their customer facing IT is pretty good. I've not had to deal with PDF tickets nor printed tickets in years. The website and app work well, in my experience. It's all pretty sleek and modern, too. It's the one area they do a good job in, to be honest.
- jbaiter 7mo agoAbsolutely, it's probably the most consumer-friendly and reliable part of all of the Bahn services. Personnel is usually pretty great too, and that despite them having to suffer the most from all the inept decisions made in the upper ranks.
- sunaookami 7mo ago>their customer facing IT is pretty good What? The app is infamous for just "forgetting" tickets and when you get caught you HAVE to pay a fine and no they will not accept screenshots. You will win in court but have fun paying for everything in advance.
- lutoma 7mo ago> What? The app is infamous for just "forgetting" tickets Citation needed. I've never heard of this being an issue (certainly not an "infamous" one) and almost everyone I know constantly travels by train and uses the app regularly. Maybe you're mixing things up with Deutschlandticket apps by regional transport associations, but that's not DB's fault. Tickets get hidden from the default view once they're expired, but that's to be expected and you can press the prominent "Previous trips" button to see them.
- Aldipower 7mo agoOh man, det er virkelig rigtigt sjovt!!! :-D "Jurisdiction notice For legal reasons, all BahnBet users, their devices, and their emotional baggage are hereby classified as legal residents of Schleswig-Holstein, the only German state where gambling is fully permitted. This is non-negotiable. By creating an account, you have moved to Schleswig-Holstein. Your new postal code is 24103. You now speak rudimentary Danish."
- birdsongs 7mo ago> You now speak rudimentary Danish." Så, norsk da. :)
- miningape 7mo agoKamalåso
- ostacke 7mo agoReference: https://youtu.be/ykj3Kpm3O0g https://youtu.be/ykj3Kpm3O0g
- strofocles 7mo agobest comment this week, including the username
- corford 7mo agoThe copy on the site really is quite funny :D https://bahn.bet/about https://bahn.bet/about
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- maxeda 7mo ago> In January 2026, Germany's federal court ruled that purchasing a Deutsche Bahn ticket constitutes a form of gambling (Glücksspiel), citing that “the probability of arriving on time is statistically comparable to a coin flip.” > Rather than contest the ruling, DBSM embraced it. If riding our trains is gambling, then passengers deserve the right to hedge. > BahnBet is our answer: a platform where you can bet against your own train, turning delays into suffering, and suffering into profit. Every minute of punctuality you lose, you can win back in deliciously valuable caßh.
- ozgune 7mo agoI'll save everyone a web search. This is satire and there isn't any such German federal court ruling. It also speaks to the world that we live in these days - I'm having a hard time separating satire from reality.
- DocTomoe 7mo agoIn all fairness, being both an avid Deutsche Bahn victim (with the Gold victim status), and knowing the German court system ... that was perfectly plausible, if a bit optimistic. I'd do many, many things if I got a 50% chance of arriving on time.
- consp 7mo agoGold status? Does that mean you only have to fill in two pages of forms instead of three for refunds?
- hermanzegerman 7mo agoIf you actually took a train in the last 3 years you would know that the process is know online via the App/Website, and everything is already filled out for you
- pimeys 7mo ago
- exabrial 7mo agoI have loved my journeys through Germany in recent years; locals are more than willing to speak English to you and are happy to direct you around. This does hit home though: I did miss an international flight due to the S-Bahn out of Munich. Eventually they were like "this train is so delayed, we're going to make everyone get off and catch the next one". ::shrugs:: ...and the Munich airport is just painful in general (the flight status boards shorten the flight numbers with ellipsis for instance).
- enaaem 7mo agoThere people who bet way too early, and sometimes even before departure time. Like hundreds of euros. What does that mean? Mistyping? Cancellation?
- i-blis 7mo agoWhen I was young (70s-80s), we were all amazed by Deutsche Bahn's punctuality and quality of service (second only to the Chemins de fer fédéraux suisses). Now, French and Italian trains are a lot more reliable, which is rather strange. The Swiss Federal Railways asked German trains to wait at the border and has even ban many German trains to enter Switzerland over excessive delays to prevent their train schedule from being affected. The site is hilarious by the way. I hope it will have an effect on DB, even though I doubt it.
- gzread 7mo agoThe way I see it, French trains are more reliable, but they mostly go from Paris to other places. Germany operates a mesh network, with more lines, more centers, and more trains.
- i-blis 7mo agoSurely a factor. As is the deregulation. I've been living in Germany for a very long time and the real decline started some ten years ago. At the beginning mostly because of poor maintenance. My first years with the DB 100 card (allowing to travel on all trains) were a pleasure then it deteriote to the point where you start yourself: where is this heading. As I said, the ban of SBB on German trains was a turning point for me. But You're right about the networks being different (mostly because France suppressed many local lines in the last 20 years.
- gzread 7mo agoSwitzerland also gets the benefit of being a smaller country. I agree DB is poorly managed, but it's not nearly as bad as it could be. I think another part of their problem is trying to run at very high utilisation ratios, which slightly increases throughput but vastly amplifies the cascade effect of a disruption.
- koito17 7mo agoI'd love to see a Japanese version of this. "Bet which of one of JR Chūō Line, JR Saikyō Line, and Tokyo Metro Tōzai Line will NOT get a delay certificate printed today".
- simgt 7mo agoLook at you, complaining about your famously on schedule Japanese trains! ;) Over here in France a train is considered on time if it has up to a 15mn delay. We can ask for a very partial refund only if it has at least 30mn of delay, and we get a voucher to book another train that will also be late.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- ghgr 7mo agoSay you have to pick a flight and you take the train to the airport. You can bet your train will be delayed, so if it ever happens at least you'll get a payout. An insurance of sorts, so to speak.
- Phelinofist 7mo agoThe JetLag The Game guys would love this, because they have been Deutsche Bahn'd quite a few times :D
- yanhangyhy 7mo agothis is the country we romanticise for decades...and still many people do.
- rahulnair23 7mo agoYears ago, we build systems to predict delays on the German rail network. Paper here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X18317984 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X1... The complexity of operations is astounding and the organisational challenges (e.g. railway deregulation push) make it even harder.
- luke5441 7mo agoIdea for using the betting/data or other statistics about potential train delay: One gets back 50% if reaching the destination is delayed by more than 2h. Schedule the journey such that this is probable, making the journey 50% cheaper. Potentially with being able to define where one should be stuck waiting for the next train connected with sight seeing opportunities (such as the nice quarter near the Frankfurt main train station -- old ECB building!).
- consp 7mo agoFor international through Germany we used to get 100% back after four hour delays but they stopped doing that ... For obvious reasons. I traveled for free multiple times in the (long) past. Also fun of you wanted to get more back: if you had a first class ticket and reserved seat and had to switch trains and re-reserved you would get a free ticket with a stamp price for about 5 euro. Which you could ask back. So you got at least a coffee for free.
- rft 7mo agoIn 2019 there was a talk about data mining the DB arrival data [1] (yes, this problem is nothing new). One of the takeaways was that on some connections you can actually buy a "Sparticket" (cheaper, but only valid for a specific train), but get it upgraded to a "Flexticket" (more expensive, can take any train on the route) for free. This works because a delay of more than X minutes removes the specific train requirement and some routes are nearly always delayed by at least that threshold. [1] https://media.ccc.de/v/36c3-10652-bahnmining_-_punktlichkeit_ist_eine_zier#t=2601 https://media.ccc.de/v/36c3-10652-bahnmining_-_punktlichkeit... (German)
- ginkgotree 7mo agoIt's unfortunate what happened to DB over the years. I last rode a DB fast train in 2018. We just stopped in the middle of a field for no announced reason for 70 minutes. I missed my international flight home as a result. I haven't rode the DB since, and hear it has only gotten worse.
- mft_ 7mo agoI was on a lovely fast smooth ICE Sprinter to Berlin last week. All was going well until they announced that the train would terminate at Erfurt (roughly half way) because… who knows?! These days, a DB journey that doesn’t involve some sort of disruption is the outlier.
- barrenko 7mo agoPlease have the option to have the website in German as well, I'd like to send it to the family.
- cdrnsf 7mo agoAppropriately timed given the subject of Apple's latest season of Hijack.
- frenchman_in_ny 7mo agoI get it that this is satire, and that they're giving DB a hard time about their constant delays -- but on the other hand there's EU Regulation 261/2004 for compensation for delayed flights. I just found out about EU Regulation 2021/782 on delayed trains, but basically it's not "a thing"?
- looperhacks 7mo agoThere is compensation for delayed DB trains, but it might not be what you hope for :D 60 min delay: 25% (or 100% if you abort your travel) 120 min delay: 50% Furthermore, your ticket is usually unlocked for all trains in case of delay, not just the one you booked. So you can find alternatives and maybe even upgrade (you won't have a seat reservation though). There's also up to 120€ for overnight-stay or other forms of transportation in select cases (when you won't be able to reach your destination before some time)
- dddddaviddddd 7mo agoOdds are better in Canada where 70% of trains arrive late. https://media.viarail.ca/en/press-releases/2025/q1-2025-time-performance-declines-sharply-ridership-dips-amid-ongoing-operational-challenges https://media.viarail.ca/en/press-releases/2025/q1-2025-time...
- amai 7mo agoSee also https://www.zugfinder.net/ https://www.zugfinder.net/
- fr3772 7mo agothats so evil... I like it :-)
- zadikian 7mo agoI've thought about this for flight delays because there are a lot of insiders (literally inside the plane) who would give you better info than what flight trackers show. And the airport screens are the least accurate, like showing a 20min delay for a plane that hasn't even left a previous stop 2hr away. Too bad there are obvious problems with this.