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Either this will end in a fractured state with different factions OR another Ayatollah will be in charge. Just my guess from seeing similar stories play out in

Either this will end in a fractured state with different factions OR another Ayatollah will be in charge. Just my guess from seeing similar stories play out in other countries though....

adamiscool8 7mo ago
Even as we speak, Ayatollah Razmara and his cadre of fanatics are consolidating their power!
- bombcar 7mo ago
  It’s Ayatollah Rubio.
- indubioprorubik 7mo ago
  Maybe .. the revolutionary guard is fed up though with ineffective empire rule? Like to be rubbed in the dirt face first repeatetly as inheritor of the mighty persian empire sucks bad enough, to reconsider the way things are run? Sorry, but whatever israel & the us are doing, seems to work way better than - whatever has happened the last decades in iran?
  - jcranmer 7mo ago
    As I understand it, the IGRC doesn't particularly rub happily with the clerical council, and it's not entirely clear to me who will win that the power struggle. But the ultimate loser of the power struggle is clear: the Iranian populace at large, as all of the viable factions are quite committed to consolidating their power by repressing the population. The most likely situation, I think, looks a lot like Libya.
    - indubioprorubik 7mo ago
      Islamic societies seem to be unable to form stable institutions. The recipe seems to be unable to synthesize this, no matter how many ressources are available and how benign the conditions. As a result the biggest formable state-institution remains the family clan and the family clan just does not cut it in preventing civil war. At best you get a clan-coalition masquerading as a military government with some democratic pets - at worst you get libya.But i guess after 52 countries, the results are in and the fact that other - non western powers are colonizing islamic countries now (china, russia) and everyone is scrambling for nukes post trump - the displayed weaknesses could end the region.
      - lucketone 7mo ago
        How about Indonesia?
      - oa335 7mo ago
        “ the biggest formable state-institution remains the family clan” This is not at all how Irani society is structured. The rest of your comments generalizations are weak and ill-supported as well, at best they only apply to a subset of Arab countries in the Middle East.
      - jcranmer 7mo ago
        The Ottoman Empire lasted 600 years with only one major civil war, a feat not matched by any major Christian European country. England faced 3½ civil wars (counting the Hundred Years War as a ½ civil war here, because while it is essentially a dynastic dispute, it's not a dynastic dispute over England itself but rather English holdings in France) in the same timeframe. And this despite the Ottoman successor law being essentially "battle royale among eligible candidates" whereas standard European succession by this time is the seemingly clear "eldest son" yet somehow creating endless succession disputes.
        OkayPhysicist 7mo ago
        Those "battle royales" were the reason for the stability. The process selected for sultans (or, occasionally, mothers of sultans) who were most effective at building a backing coalition, and generally ended in the killing or at least exile of all pretenders to the throne. The disruption the process represented also helped quell the willingness of factions within the government to try and repeat it too often. The well-established succession processes practiced in the West guaranteed that at any given time, not only was there almost always at least one person who would benefit directly from the ruler's demise, there were often individuals for whom the ruler's premature demise was required for them to be inline for the throne. If you're the King's brother, for example, under male-preference primogeniture you need to make sure your brother doesn't have any kids.
    - tptacek 7mo ago
      Where did you hear that? The IRGC is the creation of the revolutionary clerical movement. It exists specifically to prevent outcomes like Egypt, where a powerful national armed service operates as a check on political Islam.
  - Drunk_Engineer 7mo ago
    For those who don't get the joke: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpEF6QPSVJE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpEF6QPSVJE
  - quitspamming 7mo ago
    Replying authoritatively to a Simpsons quote betrays you.
- ReptileMan 7mo ago
  Even as we speak Israeli missiles are target at him.
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
XorNot 7mo ago
"Mission Accomplished"
- mkoubaa 7mo ago
  We have such short memories don't we
hnthrowaway0315 7mo ago
I think maybe the reformists are able to hold on now that the IRGC is being hammered. There might be more internal bloodshed but chances are that Iran might be a bit more open and more modern. Of course I have zero knowledge about how Iran politics works, so that was just a guess, not even an intelligent one. BTW I don't actually think even the reformists will "accept Western ideas".
suoloordi 7mo ago
Iran is not like other countries in the region. Despite its shortcomings, it's a cohesive society. I'm certain that there will be no fracturing and a central authority will emerge.
- elcritch 7mo ago
  Indeed, I'vve already read about an opposition government being organized.
- christkv 7mo ago
  From my reading I get the feeling it has more in common with Spain and Portugal before the fall of the dictatorships.
- throwaway2037 7mo ago
  > Iran is not like other countries in the region. Despite its shortcomings, it's a cohesive society. This is a weird comment. I would also describe Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as cohesive societies.
  - bonsai_spool 7mo ago
    > I would also describe Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as cohesive societies. I don’t know much about the region; is it incorrect to say that the nations you listed (excepting Jordan) are collections of fiefdoms with a relatively weak central power? To OP’s point, that is not how I view Iran
    - Gud 7mo ago
      That would only be nominally correct regarding UAE, which consists of seven emirates.
      - throwaway2037 7mo ago
        Emiratis would describe themselves as a cohesive nation of Emiratis living under seven different Emirs. (There are many YouTube videos about it.) Emiratis from different Emirs do not view themselves as from different ethnicities/tribes/nations. BTW -- My original post forgot to mention Kuwait as a cohesive nation.

Either this will end in a fractured state with different factions OR another Ayatollah will be in charge. Just my guess from seeing similar stories play out in other countries though....

adamiscool8 7mo ago

Even as we speak, Ayatollah Razmara and his cadre of fanatics are consolidating their power!

bombcar 7mo ago
It’s Ayatollah Rubio.
indubioprorubik 7mo ago
Maybe .. the revolutionary guard is fed up though with ineffective empire rule? Like to be rubbed in the dirt face first repeatetly as inheritor of the mighty persian empire sucks bad enough, to reconsider the way things are run? Sorry, but whatever israel & the us are doing, seems to work way better than - whatever has happened the last decades in iran?
- jcranmer 7mo ago
  As I understand it, the IGRC doesn't particularly rub happily with the clerical council, and it's not entirely clear to me who will win that the power struggle. But the ultimate loser of the power struggle is clear: the Iranian populace at large, as all of the viable factions are quite committed to consolidating their power by repressing the population. The most likely situation, I think, looks a lot like Libya.
  - indubioprorubik 7mo ago
    Islamic societies seem to be unable to form stable institutions. The recipe seems to be unable to synthesize this, no matter how many ressources are available and how benign the conditions. As a result the biggest formable state-institution remains the family clan and the family clan just does not cut it in preventing civil war. At best you get a clan-coalition masquerading as a military government with some democratic pets - at worst you get libya.But i guess after 52 countries, the results are in and the fact that other - non western powers are colonizing islamic countries now (china, russia) and everyone is scrambling for nukes post trump - the displayed weaknesses could end the region.
    - lucketone 7mo ago
      How about Indonesia?
    - oa335 7mo ago
      “ the biggest formable state-institution remains the family clan” This is not at all how Irani society is structured. The rest of your comments generalizations are weak and ill-supported as well, at best they only apply to a subset of Arab countries in the Middle East.
    - jcranmer 7mo ago
      The Ottoman Empire lasted 600 years with only one major civil war, a feat not matched by any major Christian European country. England faced 3½ civil wars (counting the Hundred Years War as a ½ civil war here, because while it is essentially a dynastic dispute, it's not a dynastic dispute over England itself but rather English holdings in France) in the same timeframe. And this despite the Ottoman successor law being essentially "battle royale among eligible candidates" whereas standard European succession by this time is the seemingly clear "eldest son" yet somehow creating endless succession disputes.
      - OkayPhysicist 7mo ago
        Those "battle royales" were the reason for the stability. The process selected for sultans (or, occasionally, mothers of sultans) who were most effective at building a backing coalition, and generally ended in the killing or at least exile of all pretenders to the throne. The disruption the process represented also helped quell the willingness of factions within the government to try and repeat it too often. The well-established succession processes practiced in the West guaranteed that at any given time, not only was there almost always at least one person who would benefit directly from the ruler's demise, there were often individuals for whom the ruler's premature demise was required for them to be inline for the throne. If you're the King's brother, for example, under male-preference primogeniture you need to make sure your brother doesn't have any kids.
  - tptacek 7mo ago
    Where did you hear that? The IRGC is the creation of the revolutionary clerical movement. It exists specifically to prevent outcomes like Egypt, where a powerful national armed service operates as a check on political Islam.
- Drunk_Engineer 7mo ago
  For those who don't get the joke: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpEF6QPSVJE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpEF6QPSVJE
- quitspamming 7mo ago
  Replying authoritatively to a Simpsons quote betrays you.
ReptileMan 7mo ago
Even as we speak Israeli missiles are target at him.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]

XorNot 7mo ago

"Mission Accomplished"

mkoubaa 7mo ago
We have such short memories don't we

hnthrowaway0315 7mo ago

I think maybe the reformists are able to hold on now that the IRGC is being hammered. There might be more internal bloodshed but chances are that Iran might be a bit more open and more modern. Of course I have zero knowledge about how Iran politics works, so that was just a guess, not even an intelligent one. BTW I don't actually think even the reformists will "accept Western ideas".

suoloordi 7mo ago

Iran is not like other countries in the region. Despite its shortcomings, it's a cohesive society. I'm certain that there will be no fracturing and a central authority will emerge.

elcritch 7mo ago
Indeed, I'vve already read about an opposition government being organized.
christkv 7mo ago
From my reading I get the feeling it has more in common with Spain and Portugal before the fall of the dictatorships.
throwaway2037 7mo ago
> Iran is not like other countries in the region. Despite its shortcomings, it's a cohesive society. This is a weird comment. I would also describe Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as cohesive societies.
- bonsai_spool 7mo ago
  > I would also describe Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as cohesive societies. I don’t know much about the region; is it incorrect to say that the nations you listed (excepting Jordan) are collections of fiefdoms with a relatively weak central power? To OP’s point, that is not how I view Iran
  - Gud 7mo ago
    That would only be nominally correct regarding UAE, which consists of seven emirates.
    - throwaway2037 7mo ago
      Emiratis would describe themselves as a cohesive nation of Emiratis living under seven different Emirs. (There are many YouTube videos about it.) Emiratis from different Emirs do not view themselves as from different ethnicities/tribes/nations. BTW -- My original post forgot to mention Kuwait as a cohesive nation.