7 ms·

I watched this video yesterday corroborating this story and I gotta say the evidence is pretty hard to refute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU http

by caust1c 7mo ago

I watched this video yesterday corroborating this story and I gotta say the evidence is pretty hard to refute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU Purposefully devaluing the dollar to make US goods more globally marketable and hide the Japanese debt crisis is an interesting but risky strategy. Currently, I'm glad to see a correction without panic, but it's too early to make a call on the effect on the overall global economy. Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.

rednafi 7mo ago
> Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy. I wonder why you’re worried. Regime’s change all the time. From a third party perspective, China is no better or worse than the US. Also, given how literally every country under the sun despises US now, this might just happen.
- UltraSane 7mo ago
  The way China manages it's currency is very different to how the US manages theirs. China maintains strict controls on capital flows in/out. A reserve currency requires free convertibility. Holders need to move large sums instantly without permission. China has repeatedly tightened these controls during stress periods (2015-16 devaluation fears, for example). Limited access to Chinese bond markets and equities for foreign institutions. Reserve currency status requires deep, liquid markets where central banks can park hundreds of billions. US Treasury market is $26T and extremely liquid. Chinese government bond market is smaller and less accessible. Reserve currency issuer must run persistent current account deficits to supply the world with currency. China's economic model is built on export surpluses. They'd need to fundamentally restructure their economy.
  - maxglute 7mo ago
    >Reserve currency issuer must run This is PRC's fundamental disagreement. US reserve currency morphed into high liquid, high speculative instrument to fund unsustainable debt, hollowed out domestic industry (triffin)... but this is not by design. It's the result of emergency adaptations moving off gold, then people post rationalize the trinity musts (open capital, floating rates, independent central bank) is what makes reserve when it's unintended structural outcome from failed gold peg. Now we see hints of end stage USD reserve behavior, debt snow balls and reserve controller will pull the our dollar, your problem card. This US doing current conniptions trying to either reduce USD strength or inflate away debt... costly instability. People forget, liquidity / storage only matters to sovereign buyers who needs reserve for utility... everyone else (now plurality) are private buyers who buy for returns. If we enter end of dollar cycle and USD reserve cost them money, then they go elsewhere Elsewhere is what PRC wants to offer, HIGHLY CONTROLLED, BUT STABLE reserve pegged to PRC industrial chains, i.e. real economy instead of speculative financialization. This what recent yuan reserve talk is from (note it was old Xi speech republished in Qiushi), so the propose model isn't even in response to current USD conniptions but prediction on end life of US behavior when USD reserve goes from exorbitant privilege to just exorbitant. It's precisely because logical outcome of current reserve "musts", i.e. triffin charity/global good that makes it ultimately a stupid arrangement where the system breaks when US/owner can't afford to maintain or develops bad habits (deficit spending). Hence, what PRC plans to offer in parallel: stable regulated reserves for "real economy" financial utility. Stable Yuan "bank" reserve can coexist with volatile USD "casino" reserve. Now of course this all heterodox theory, but we are seeing theory of USD reserve limits peaking it's head, and PRC not retarded enough to pickup triffin baton. IMO PRC fine with US dealing with triffin headache and IMO betting US will fuck global creditors when shit hits fan, i.e. they waiting for USD reserve to implode due to inherent contradictions, to show world precisely why yuan reserve not modelled to repeat same mistake.
    - UltraSane 7mo ago
      No one sane is going to trust the CCP to manage a reserve currency. The euro would be a much better choice.
UltraSane 7mo ago
The Yuan is never going to be a global reserve currency with how opaque the CCP is.
- bloppe 7mo ago
  The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. Another 3 years of these kinds of manipulations and the Yuan could very well look like the lesser evil to a lot of countries.
  - UltraSane 7mo ago
    Still nowhere near what the CCP does.
  - XorNot 7mo ago
    The Euro is like, right there? Its a market larger then the US.
    - vachina 7mo ago
      Europeans dont make stuff i want to buy.
      - XorNot 7mo ago
        Neither does the US that's not the utility of a reserve currency.
  - throw0101a 7mo ago
    > The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. The yuan/renminbi is currently about 8.5% of all foreign currency transactions. That's on a similar to CAD and AUD (6%): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencie... It has a ways to go still.
- tastyfreeze 7mo ago
avensec 7mo ago
The channel appears to be five years of "It is happening!" and "It started!" thumbnails. I just can't take it seriously, so I decided to look into the company/leadership. It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.
- johnvanommen 7mo ago
  > It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding. I really wish that people would wake up to the danger posed by meme stock BS “leaking” into the general markets. Just as voters are responsible for changes in society, uninformed investors can impact society too, especially when they’re amplifying their purchasing power via leverage. For instance, I’ve been buying real estate forever, and I’ve enjoyed the Reventure app. But I’ve REALLY noticed that his YT videos are exclusively doom and gloom. This ceaseless negativity moves markets, just as the irrational exuberance for real estate in 2005 moved markets. But the exuberance for real estate was driven by people who were buying real estate. The endless doom and gloom of YT finance videos is for a much different reason: It drives page views. That’s not a good thing. Because it’s really easy to get swept up in the negativity. And that negativity has a downstream effect, where it’s often used to convince people to invest in things that the YouTuber is promoting. Basically, I don’t know if we need an “SEC for YouTube,” but we might. Yes, I know we already have an SEC for YouTube (it’s the SEC), but nearly none of the people doling out financial advice on YT are trained professionals. It’s the fundamental defect of internet advice; who to trust?
  - zbentley 7mo ago
    Misinformation and mass hysteria suck, I agree. But if the amplification of the sky-is-falling-flavor-of-the-week braindead youtuber take can materially imperil financial markets, the stability of that system was always doomed. An “SEC for YouTube” can’t prevent shit if the lever of influence is already that long. It might be able to keep a lot of meme investor idiots from losing their shirts, but that has to be weighed against the historically evident risks of having what amounts to a ministry of truth/state propaganda regulator.
drakythe 7mo ago
I'm immediately concerned with the note about silver dropping so much. Yes, that happened, and was a historic drop. But it followed a historic run up to its prior price, so the drop is still net positive for even a 1 month period. I'm not saying the article's thesis is incorrect, but its providing some data without context. I'm always leery of data presented without context.
- coffeebeqn 7mo ago
  I take “not financial advice” articles like this at best as entertainment. How can anyone seriously talk about metals for example without mentioning that gold was $1900 and silver $20 a few years ago. Today they sit at $5000 and $80. It’s completely absurd to write about the “drop” as a proof of anything
  - attila-lendvai 7mo ago
    this article discusses the events in the recent couple of months, explicitly. the moves prior to that is not really relevant for its thesis -- regardless of how true it actually is.
lkey 7mo ago
DO NOT make financial decisions based on the advice of a youtube channel. DO NOT make financial decisions based of of the advice of an an article written by a know associate of Curtis Yarvin. You saw the video yesterday because this is a marketing exercise. They hold a stake in the outcome, you are the greater fool. Christ. Find a professional fiduciary that doesn't have a youtube channel and never speculate more than you can afford to lose.
- maleldil 7mo ago
  For the unaware: > Curtis Guy Yarvin (born 1973), also known by the pen name Mencius Moldbug, is an American far-right political blogger and software developer. He is known, along with accelerationist philosopher Nick Land, for founding the anti-egalitarian and anti-democratic philosophical movement known as the Dark Enlightenment or neo-reactionary movement (NRx). The author (jart, Justine Tunney) has openly supported these ideas: https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis
  - lovich 7mo ago
    Oh so they’re a cryptofascist, for both senses of the word crypto
    - maleldil 7mo ago
      If one of those meanings is "one who hides their support for fascism", it doesn't apply, as they've made public displays of support. It's just that most people know them for their technical accomplishments without doing further research on who they are. This is understandable, hence my warning.
      - lovich 7mo ago
        Everyone in the IDW or who followed Mencius moldbug always told normies they weren’t fascist and that you just called them Nazis because you disagreed with them until the current day when they are now more open about being in what they consider a post Constitutional era. That’s why they were called cryptofascists even though I agree they’ve dropped the hidden part since they feel they have the power to get away with it.
pjc50 7mo ago
Everyone forgetting the more likely, more rule-of-law based fallback option for a reserve currency and international payments system (which is the important bit!): the Euro. Digital or otherwise.

by caust1c 7mo ago

rednafi 7mo ago

> Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy. I wonder why you’re worried. Regime’s change all the time. From a third party perspective, China is no better or worse than the US. Also, given how literally every country under the sun despises US now, this might just happen.

UltraSane 7mo ago
The way China manages it's currency is very different to how the US manages theirs. China maintains strict controls on capital flows in/out. A reserve currency requires free convertibility. Holders need to move large sums instantly without permission. China has repeatedly tightened these controls during stress periods (2015-16 devaluation fears, for example). Limited access to Chinese bond markets and equities for foreign institutions. Reserve currency status requires deep, liquid markets where central banks can park hundreds of billions. US Treasury market is $26T and extremely liquid. Chinese government bond market is smaller and less accessible. Reserve currency issuer must run persistent current account deficits to supply the world with currency. China's economic model is built on export surpluses. They'd need to fundamentally restructure their economy.
- maxglute 7mo ago
  >Reserve currency issuer must run This is PRC's fundamental disagreement. US reserve currency morphed into high liquid, high speculative instrument to fund unsustainable debt, hollowed out domestic industry (triffin)... but this is not by design. It's the result of emergency adaptations moving off gold, then people post rationalize the trinity musts (open capital, floating rates, independent central bank) is what makes reserve when it's unintended structural outcome from failed gold peg. Now we see hints of end stage USD reserve behavior, debt snow balls and reserve controller will pull the our dollar, your problem card. This US doing current conniptions trying to either reduce USD strength or inflate away debt... costly instability. People forget, liquidity / storage only matters to sovereign buyers who needs reserve for utility... everyone else (now plurality) are private buyers who buy for returns. If we enter end of dollar cycle and USD reserve cost them money, then they go elsewhere Elsewhere is what PRC wants to offer, HIGHLY CONTROLLED, BUT STABLE reserve pegged to PRC industrial chains, i.e. real economy instead of speculative financialization. This what recent yuan reserve talk is from (note it was old Xi speech republished in Qiushi), so the propose model isn't even in response to current USD conniptions but prediction on end life of US behavior when USD reserve goes from exorbitant privilege to just exorbitant. It's precisely because logical outcome of current reserve "musts", i.e. triffin charity/global good that makes it ultimately a stupid arrangement where the system breaks when US/owner can't afford to maintain or develops bad habits (deficit spending). Hence, what PRC plans to offer in parallel: stable regulated reserves for "real economy" financial utility. Stable Yuan "bank" reserve can coexist with volatile USD "casino" reserve. Now of course this all heterodox theory, but we are seeing theory of USD reserve limits peaking it's head, and PRC not retarded enough to pickup triffin baton. IMO PRC fine with US dealing with triffin headache and IMO betting US will fuck global creditors when shit hits fan, i.e. they waiting for USD reserve to implode due to inherent contradictions, to show world precisely why yuan reserve not modelled to repeat same mistake.
  - UltraSane 7mo ago
    No one sane is going to trust the CCP to manage a reserve currency. The euro would be a much better choice.

UltraSane 7mo ago

The Yuan is never going to be a global reserve currency with how opaque the CCP is.

bloppe 7mo ago
The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. Another 3 years of these kinds of manipulations and the Yuan could very well look like the lesser evil to a lot of countries.
- UltraSane 7mo ago
  Still nowhere near what the CCP does.
- XorNot 7mo ago
  The Euro is like, right there? Its a market larger then the US.
  - vachina 7mo ago
    Europeans dont make stuff i want to buy.
    - XorNot 7mo ago
      Neither does the US that's not the utility of a reserve currency.
- throw0101a 7mo ago
  > The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. The yuan/renminbi is currently about 8.5% of all foreign currency transactions. That's on a similar to CAD and AUD (6%): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencie... It has a ways to go still.
tastyfreeze 7mo ago

avensec 7mo ago

The channel appears to be five years of "It is happening!" and "It started!" thumbnails. I just can't take it seriously, so I decided to look into the company/leadership. It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.

johnvanommen 7mo ago
> It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding. I really wish that people would wake up to the danger posed by meme stock BS “leaking” into the general markets. Just as voters are responsible for changes in society, uninformed investors can impact society too, especially when they’re amplifying their purchasing power via leverage. For instance, I’ve been buying real estate forever, and I’ve enjoyed the Reventure app. But I’ve REALLY noticed that his YT videos are exclusively doom and gloom. This ceaseless negativity moves markets, just as the irrational exuberance for real estate in 2005 moved markets. But the exuberance for real estate was driven by people who were buying real estate. The endless doom and gloom of YT finance videos is for a much different reason: It drives page views. That’s not a good thing. Because it’s really easy to get swept up in the negativity. And that negativity has a downstream effect, where it’s often used to convince people to invest in things that the YouTuber is promoting. Basically, I don’t know if we need an “SEC for YouTube,” but we might. Yes, I know we already have an SEC for YouTube (it’s the SEC), but nearly none of the people doling out financial advice on YT are trained professionals. It’s the fundamental defect of internet advice; who to trust?
- zbentley 7mo ago
  Misinformation and mass hysteria suck, I agree. But if the amplification of the sky-is-falling-flavor-of-the-week braindead youtuber take can materially imperil financial markets, the stability of that system was always doomed. An “SEC for YouTube” can’t prevent shit if the lever of influence is already that long. It might be able to keep a lot of meme investor idiots from losing their shirts, but that has to be weighed against the historically evident risks of having what amounts to a ministry of truth/state propaganda regulator.

drakythe 7mo ago

I'm immediately concerned with the note about silver dropping so much. Yes, that happened, and was a historic drop. But it followed a historic run up to its prior price, so the drop is still net positive for even a 1 month period. I'm not saying the article's thesis is incorrect, but its providing some data without context. I'm always leery of data presented without context.

coffeebeqn 7mo ago
I take “not financial advice” articles like this at best as entertainment. How can anyone seriously talk about metals for example without mentioning that gold was $1900 and silver $20 a few years ago. Today they sit at $5000 and $80. It’s completely absurd to write about the “drop” as a proof of anything
- attila-lendvai 7mo ago
  this article discusses the events in the recent couple of months, explicitly. the moves prior to that is not really relevant for its thesis -- regardless of how true it actually is.

lkey 7mo ago

DO NOT make financial decisions based on the advice of a youtube channel. DO NOT make financial decisions based of of the advice of an an article written by a know associate of Curtis Yarvin. You saw the video yesterday because this is a marketing exercise. They hold a stake in the outcome, you are the greater fool. Christ. Find a professional fiduciary that doesn't have a youtube channel and never speculate more than you can afford to lose.

maleldil 7mo ago
For the unaware: > Curtis Guy Yarvin (born 1973), also known by the pen name Mencius Moldbug, is an American far-right political blogger and software developer. He is known, along with accelerationist philosopher Nick Land, for founding the anti-egalitarian and anti-democratic philosophical movement known as the Dark Enlightenment or neo-reactionary movement (NRx). The author (jart, Justine Tunney) has openly supported these ideas: https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis
- lovich 7mo ago
  Oh so they’re a cryptofascist, for both senses of the word crypto
  - maleldil 7mo ago
    If one of those meanings is "one who hides their support for fascism", it doesn't apply, as they've made public displays of support. It's just that most people know them for their technical accomplishments without doing further research on who they are. This is understandable, hence my warning.
    - lovich 7mo ago
      Everyone in the IDW or who followed Mencius moldbug always told normies they weren’t fascist and that you just called them Nazis because you disagreed with them until the current day when they are now more open about being in what they consider a post Constitutional era. That’s why they were called cryptofascists even though I agree they’ve dropped the hidden part since they feel they have the power to get away with it.

pjc50 7mo ago

Everyone forgetting the more likely, more rule-of-law based fallback option for a reserve currency and international payments system (which is the important bit!): the Euro. Digital or otherwise.