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Tesla's Big Gamble: Can The Electric Car Go Mainstream?

77 points by ganjianwei 14y ago

syousif 14y ago
One of the big downsides I see in owning a Tesla is the need to also own a house with a garage. The Model S has the range to handle my daily commuting needs, but I have no place to charge it.
ChuckMcM 14y ago
My parents used to joke that it took three owners to create a new ski resort, the first to do all the permitting paperwork and go bankrupt, the second to acquire that completed paperwork for free and then to go bankrupt removing trees and rocks and installing lifts, then the third to get the paperwork and the equipment for free and to start marketing it. I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself to buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad.
- daeken 14y ago
  > I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself to buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad. I'm largely in the same boat. I'm planning on buying a car in the next year and while I think the Model S is downright beautiful, I can't do it. The base model is right in the price range I'd be willing to pay, but the problem is the range; even under optimal driving circumstances, it's quite a bit short of what I'd need to make the trips I'd like to make. One of the higher end models has the range I'd need, but I can't justify the extra $20k or whatever it is. Hopefully in a couple years there'll be a car from them priced at the perfect level with the things I need, but it's just not there yet.
  - sliverstorm 14y ago
    Depending on how compelled you are and how often you make those trips you'd like to make, you could potentially shore up your garage with a cheap beater from the 90's.
  - maguay 14y ago
    I just purchased a new ~$20k Toyota in Thailand, and its my first vehicle purchase. I'm seriously hoping electric is in my price range here in, say, a decade when I plan to want a new car...
- vm 14y ago
  Excellent analogy. Tesla has major challenges to lasting as a company. It spends about $100M per quarter and it has $200M of cash [1]. So in the next 6 months, Tesla will need to bring margins way up (unlikely), dramatically cut expenses (opposite of the current plan), or raise lots more money. The company already has $400M in debt. I hope it can raise more. Or that the public will pony up more investment. I also really really want Tesla to succeed. [1] See "Cash Flows" tab: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii&ei=sylhUMCTOOqkiQLDLQ http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii&...
  - timdorr 14y ago
    If they can build the 5000 cars they claimed for this year (honestly, its doubtful) then they have ~$75k (rough guess on avg car price) * 5000 = ~$375m coming their way this year. And they have a huge backlog of orders (~13.8k), so it's really just a question of if they can scale up their production fast enough to close the gap. It'll happen, possibly without any bridge financing.
    - vm 14y ago
      Revenues are not cash flows. That $375M of revenues from car orders has real costs associated (i.e. materials, labor). Ford and GM, established car makers, have gross margins of about 12-15%. Tesla's margins are much lower, at least today. But let's ignore working capital needs and pretend Tesla had the "great" margins of its competitors, then that's still only $50M of cash contribution. Tesla will need lots of cash this year.
- niccl 14y ago
  Is there another way of looking at this? Do you need to own the car? I hire a car when I need one, and use feet, push-bike and public transport the rest of the time. I _know_ I save money this way, compared with owning: I used to own a car, kept all the paper work and did the arithmetic. If you didn't need to own the car, then things like a vehicular equivalent of the old livery stables and post horses might be viable.
TheMakeA 14y ago
Probably not when their cars start at $50,000. I would really love for it to happen though. But perhaps I am just poor.
- loceng 14y ago
  They are planning a $30k sedan.
- ww520 14y ago
  50K is too much. That's in the luxury brand segments where car companies spent decades to build up brand awareness to justify the price. Put it in the 20K to 30K range and they will make a killing. May be their production capacity can't handle the high volume so they price it to throttle demand.
  - bathat 14y ago
    The problem is that batteries are expensive. High-end cars have high margins (it doesn't cost 2x as much to build a $50k car as it does to build a $25k car). When Toyota introduced the Prius, they added all sorts of (what were then) $30k car features. Why? Not because they wanted to make a luxury car, (a friend of mine remarked that if they just added leather seats he would buy one instead of an expensive Lexus) but because it costs next to nothing to add those convenience features. That way people compare the Prius to a $30k car and see only a $1000 hybrid premium instead of a $5000 premium. That's also why you don't see $15k hybrids: Taking all the "premium" features out don't make it cost any less. The reason this is possible is that hybrids and EVs have the margins of much less expensive cars. Edit: added a sentence
    - ww520 14y ago
      The problem with material cost based approach is that it ignores the value of the brand. Yes, it doesn't cost 2x as much to build a $50K car as a $25K car but the branding of the $50K cars took a lots of money and a long time to build up. People are willing to buy a $50K BMW instead of a $20K car not because of the material cost but because of the intangible brand. A Prius arguably does not have the branding of a $30K car. Toyota still sold tons of them, kudos to them. Similarly Tesla simply doesn't have the branding power of a $50K car now.
lisper 14y ago
I hope someone from Tesla is reading this. I really, really wanted to buy a Tesla. But the Roadster was too small, and the Model S is too big. At 196 inches long, it's almost as big as a BMW 7 series. The Right Size for an electric car is ~170-180 inches, about the size of a Prius (or a Lexus IS or an Infiniti G). I was a little dismayed to see that the next car in the pipeline, the Model X, bills itself as a blend of SUV and minivan. That is totally the wrong direction IMHO. You already have one very big car and one very small one. You need a compact-to-midsize to fill out the lineup, not a second huge car.
- eduardordm 14y ago
  I think their rationale is: Their cars are very expensive. People would buy a 196 inches-long expensive car, they also would buy an expensive sports cars. They wouldn't buy an expensive Prius easily. Maybe they are using their high margins on those cars to have some chance against Asian makers in the future. But, sad truth is, they will develop the very tech that nissan, toyota, hyundai, et al, will use to kill them.
  - jlgreco 14y ago
    Tesla is licensing some of their tech to Toyota iirc. I think they are of the attitude that in the current market more electric cars from everyone is good for business.
    - brooksbp 14y ago
      and mercedes
      - patrickk 14y ago
        They have a deal to get some of the interior trim from Mercedes. And Daimler (Mercedes parent company) owns a chunk of Tesla.
  - felipemnoa 14y ago
    >>But, sad truth is, they will develop the very tech that nissan, toyota, hyundai, et al, will use to kill them. Could you expand on this? How exactly will Tesla bring about its own demise?
krupan 14y ago
any numbers on cost per mile just to get from point a to point b as compared to a gas-powered car?
- revelation 14y ago
  Does it matter? Producing electricity is almost trivial to scale up when compared to oil, especially if the political weather forecast for your region is nuclear-friendly. Wolfram has the estimate for you: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2885*kW*h%29%2F%28300*miles%29+*+%28electricity+price+usa%29 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2885*kW*h%29%2F%28300*... Thats half of what you pay per mile with a Prius: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28gas+price%29+*+%281%2F%2850MPG%29%29 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28gas+price%29+*+%281%... Not included in these calculations is the wear and tear of a standard gasoline engine, which are still running on pretty much the design of the original 1885 Daimler Reitwagen.
- danielweber 14y ago
  The electricity cost is noise compared to the depreciation and wear on the battery. On that front, Better Place says they can make money leasing batteries to you at 10 cents a mile.
ck2 14y ago
Note that Toyota declared today they are getting out of the plug-in (no gas engine) business entirely. It's interesting it that it likely means they cannot make the margins they want.
- eduardordm 14y ago
  "Toyota Prius Plug-In adds electric-only mode" http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/08/11/living/automotive/toyota-prius-plug-in-adds-electric-only-mode.html http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/08/11/living/automotive/...
  - protomyth 14y ago
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-toyota-electric-idUSBRE88N0CT20120924?feedType=RSS&dlvrit=56943 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-toyota-electric... From today: "The current capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet society's needs, whether it may be the distance the cars can run, or the costs, or how it takes a long time to charge," said, Uchiyamada, who spearheaded Toyota's development of the Prius hybrid in the 1990s.
  - illumin8 14y ago
    The problem with all of the plug-in hybrids is that they can only run about 12 miles on full electric power. I don't know about you, but I need an electric car that can run at least 50 miles to get to work and back.
    - schiffern 14y ago
      The Volt has an EV-only range of 40 miles.
i2oc 14y ago
I'm very excited for mine to arrive in the next 90 days. I know I will be an early adopter in the EV world but I look at it as less of a splurge and more of an investment that could move the industry forward. This will be my fifth car owned and I am tired of two faced dealers, incremental improvements, design without vision and an industry that can but won't improve because of the lucrative parts & service aftermarket. Radio and television is littered with people giving away cars with 0% financing (baking in the profit elsewhere I suspect). It's only a matter of time before we have to bail the auto makers out again. I'm putting my money into Tesla because I believe that if they can make it to the Model E (Bluestar - $30-40k sedan) then we'll have a whole new ballgame on our hands in the automotive space. The Model S is the testing ground for volume manufacturing, the Model X will test platform re-use, then we reach the Model E which will drive down costs. In the mean time I encourage you all to test drive one - even if you are not going to purchase - it's quite the experience. The Tesla stores around North America are now getting their in-store models for test drives. With leasing opening up next summer (rumour has it) it should also make it a tad more accessible to the general public.
- nasmorn 14y ago
  Does the car come with stock? If not it is investing your money for somebody else's benefit, aka charity. Not that there is anything wrong with that.
  - i2oc 14y ago
    If your focus in pure money ROI then I supposed you would be right. At some point, however, we need to vote with our wallets to influence larger investment decisions. At the early stages of adoption per-unit costs will be higher than volume manufacturing. This is where Tesla is at this point (and the EV segment as a whole). If I continued to buy internal combustion vehicles because they were cheaper then I would continue to prop up a segment that needs to either be deprecated or pivot. At this price point I am willing to vote with my wallet in hopes that it will spur on further investment to broaden the market in turn driving down prices through better technology and higher volume sales. This is no different than the PC market in the 1980s - very expensive to buy a PC, but if none of us did then we would have had a different outcome. What is different about this investment than, say, buying a Ferrari is that this feels like something that is moving us forward rather than burning cash on a cool car that the ladies will dig (although you do hope for that as well - it's cool being green after all, right? :)).
LoseThosMan 14y ago
Stopwatch going 400Mhz. I pressed it and it read 55157: 18:16 A man's gift maketh room for him, and bringeth him before great men. 18:17 He that is first in his own cause seemeth just; but his neighbour cometh and searcheth him. 18:18 The lot causeth contentions to cease, and parteth between the mighty. 18:19 A brother offended is harder to be won than a strong city: and their contentions are like the bars of a castle. 18:20 A man's belly shall be satisfied with the fruit of his mouth; and with the increase of his lips shall he be filled. 18:21 Death and life are in the power of the tongue: and they that love it shall eat the fruit thereof. ---- Cain and Abel is the most important story in the Bible. Genesis 4. If I please God, He talks, otherwise I'm supposed to try again. What do you think God wants. Put a lot of thought into that question because it's the most important. God likes bears and elephants. Honey is funny. God says... 8:39 Nor height, nor depth, nor any other creature, shall be able to separate us from the love of God, which is in Christ Jesus our Lord. 9:1 I say the truth in Christ, I lie not, my conscience also bearing me witness in the Holy Ghost, 9:2 That I have great heaviness and continual sorrow in my heart. 9:3 For I could wish that myself were accursed from Christ for my brethren, my kinsmen according to the flesh: 9:4 Who are Israelites; to whom pertaineth the adoption, and the glory, and the covenants, and the giving of the law, and the service of God, and the promises; 9:5 Whose are the fathers, and of whom as concerning the flesh Christ came, who is over all, God blessed for ever. Amen. 9:6 Not as though the word of God hath taken none effect. For they are not all Israel, which are of Israel: 9:7 Neither, because they are the seed of Abraham, are they all children: but, In Isaac shall thy seed be called.
confluence 14y ago
I'm sorry but we're past the "can" stage. Electric propulsion just is better for any type of friction based transport within our atmosphere (trains/buses/planes/cars/bikes). The only problem was battery density per dollar. However, thanks to the incredible - and I mean incredible - success of laptops, phones and tablets over the last decade that problem is just about solved (due to astonishing volume/economies of scale/incremental li-on research/massive factory investment). High battery density at low cost (key) + 92% efficient electric motors (already done) = cheap, efficient transport for all - everywhere (think the electrification of trains - but throughout suburbia). Hook up this electrified network and make it fully autonomous (cars/trains/buses/planes) - and we've just turned the physical world into the Internet. No more oil shocks, no more traffic jams, no more pollution (in city centres), no more time wasted, fully networked, no more car ownership, no more driver deaths - for more see Google car discussions elsewhere. We will utilise fully electric transportation systems within the decade for the same reason that gasoline/diesel based transport dominated electric back in 1900 - it's just better, faster and cheaper. It also has the benefit of allowing us stop giving a shit about the hell hole that is the Middle East (I went there). With the introduction of electric cars, the astonishing growth and dramatic lowering in cost of solar PV (thanks to China) and the development of nuclear fusion with the ITER plant - you'll soon wonder why you cared about the price of oil at all. The electric car will send everyone in the Middle East back to Africa level care and development levels - a.k.a. We will no longer give a shit and brutal poverty.
- sliverstorm 14y ago
  Electric motors are awesome, but you're underestimating how far behind battery technology is as a automotive power source compared to gasoline.
  - confluence 14y ago
    Perhaps - I'm willing to concede. However the facts of the matter are such: Gasoline is only ~15% efficient. Gasoline is assumed to be past peak oil - hence prices must rise with time (look at your local petrol station). Battery tech on the other hand falls in cost by 5% per year. Electric engines are 92% efficient - batteries fall in cost 4x over next decade - EV cost/range parity will occur by 2018. Give it 5 years and they'll be electric Toyota Corolla's rolling around with middle class drivers behind the wheel.
bane 14y ago
Tesla, here's what I want. - $30k base (I buy around $20k, but can justify the delta because of the fuel savings), could care less what the top end is, but probably no more than $45k. - Accord or Sonata size. I'd even settle for a BMW 3-series or C class size. - For the base price I want 300 mile range. - Seats 4-5 adults - don't need leather seats or other fancy stuff, just a/c am/fm/hd/xm radio with an Aux in. Don't care about touch screen nonsense, GPS nav, maybe just give me a place to put my phone and it'll fill in for all that stuff. I don't even care about a CD player, the phone will handle it all through aux. - Cruise control is cool, but I won't pay a dollar more for it - 0-60 in under 6 seconds. - 5 star crash ratings all around - sell it with civic/accord like reliability for 5 years - then I'll buy it everything else is cool, hell I'd love to plunk down on a top of the line model-S, I drool when I watch Veyron top speed runs, I love this stuff, but honestly when I get down to it, I think of cars like rapidly depreciating transport appliances. They have to be cheap and reliable, utilitarian and just reasonably comfortable (not luxurious). I don't care if the car is 50/50 weight balanced, or the car can park itself, or the cup holders retract into the dash. I don't give a shit about this. It's not that I can't afford it, it's just that I'd rather do other things with my money. This is not a value judgement on those that do spend on cars, but it's not what I spend my money on. I'm the type of car buyer that buys 1 car every 10-12 years and drives them for over 250k miles or till the wheels fall off. I buy in the segment of cars that sells something like a quarter million cars a month in the U.S. alone. There are a lot of us. (and yes, the model-S and X are probably among the most beautiful production cars in the world today)
- sliverstorm 14y ago
  I think that was about as useful a list of demands as mine: - $30k base price - Be a Ferrari You're basically asking for the performance and size of an M3, the reliability of a Civic, the range of a Japanese gasoline car, all for the price of... well, a Civic. Presumably all while maintaining electric's 200mpgE+. Of course it would sell; it would be the biggest bargain in automotive history. *mpgE = miles per gallon equivalent
  - Me1000 14y ago
    I won't pretend to be an expert on internal combustion engines, but I don't think the demands are that bad. Electric engines have 100% torque all the time, which isn't true of gas engines. I believe that essentially implies a fast take off speed isn't that difficult for an electric car, and would have very little affect on it's overall distance per charge.
simonsarris 14y ago
> Musk says eventually the company will make another car that many more of us could afford. > "It's really been my goal from the beginning for Tesla to produce a mass-market car," Musk says. It blows my mind that the article and comments here have yet to mention the Nissan Leaf. http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index Isn't that more mainstream already? By miles? I see them in New Hampshire for chrissake. You can get them for 27K after rebate. Does nobody care because it doesn't look fast?
- confluence 14y ago
  It is a mainstream car - but it isn't mainstream because their range is atrocious (good for some - not for most). We need ~250-300 mile range cars going at 30K for mainstream adoption.
sksksk 14y ago
I think in order to make the electric car go mainstream, we need to move past the idea of car ownership. For a lot of people, car sharing provides people with the benefits they need from a car without the hassle of owning it. In the case of electric cars, where a huge barrier to using one is the charging time, car sharing nearly completely solves the problem. Because cars are returned to the same locations in between reservations, they will be constantly charging during the time they're not being driven. Plus all the infrastructure cost is shared over the members (if, for example, you live in a city, you might not be able to install a charging station because you have on street parking)
Zenst 14y ago
I believe for cities and dense populated area's were charge points easily viable that electric cars have there real niche if the price and incentives to migrate are there. Offset against cleaner air in dense populated area's/cities and its a win win. But until some extra leaps in power storage are made then we still have a little way to go until things truely pick up. Though a car that could act as a pod that could attach onto a transport train line would truely open up interesting options in personal transport and charging alternatives.

77 points by ganjianwei 14y ago

One of the big downsides I see in owning a Tesla is the need to also own a house with a garage. The Model S has the range to handle my daily commuting needs, but I have no place to charge it.

ChuckMcM 14y ago

My parents used to joke that it took three owners to create a new ski resort, the first to do all the permitting paperwork and go bankrupt, the second to acquire that completed paperwork for free and then to go bankrupt removing trees and rocks and installing lifts, then the third to get the paperwork and the equipment for free and to start marketing it. I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself to buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad.

daeken 14y ago
> I really really really want Tesla to succeed. But I cannot convince myself to buy a Model-S, it is just past my pain threshold. And for that I am sad. I'm largely in the same boat. I'm planning on buying a car in the next year and while I think the Model S is downright beautiful, I can't do it. The base model is right in the price range I'd be willing to pay, but the problem is the range; even under optimal driving circumstances, it's quite a bit short of what I'd need to make the trips I'd like to make. One of the higher end models has the range I'd need, but I can't justify the extra $20k or whatever it is. Hopefully in a couple years there'll be a car from them priced at the perfect level with the things I need, but it's just not there yet.
- sliverstorm 14y ago
  Depending on how compelled you are and how often you make those trips you'd like to make, you could potentially shore up your garage with a cheap beater from the 90's.
- maguay 14y ago
  I just purchased a new ~$20k Toyota in Thailand, and its my first vehicle purchase. I'm seriously hoping electric is in my price range here in, say, a decade when I plan to want a new car...
vm 14y ago
Excellent analogy. Tesla has major challenges to lasting as a company. It spends about $100M per quarter and it has $200M of cash [1]. So in the next 6 months, Tesla will need to bring margins way up (unlikely), dramatically cut expenses (opposite of the current plan), or raise lots more money. The company already has $400M in debt. I hope it can raise more. Or that the public will pony up more investment. I also really really want Tesla to succeed. [1] See "Cash Flows" tab: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii&ei=sylhUMCTOOqkiQLDLQ http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii&...
- timdorr 14y ago
  If they can build the 5000 cars they claimed for this year (honestly, its doubtful) then they have ~$75k (rough guess on avg car price) * 5000 = ~$375m coming their way this year. And they have a huge backlog of orders (~13.8k), so it's really just a question of if they can scale up their production fast enough to close the gap. It'll happen, possibly without any bridge financing.
  - vm 14y ago
    Revenues are not cash flows. That $375M of revenues from car orders has real costs associated (i.e. materials, labor). Ford and GM, established car makers, have gross margins of about 12-15%. Tesla's margins are much lower, at least today. But let's ignore working capital needs and pretend Tesla had the "great" margins of its competitors, then that's still only $50M of cash contribution. Tesla will need lots of cash this year.
niccl 14y ago
Is there another way of looking at this? Do you need to own the car? I hire a car when I need one, and use feet, push-bike and public transport the rest of the time. I _know_ I save money this way, compared with owning: I used to own a car, kept all the paper work and did the arithmetic. If you didn't need to own the car, then things like a vehicular equivalent of the old livery stables and post horses might be viable.

TheMakeA 14y ago

Probably not when their cars start at $50,000. I would really love for it to happen though. But perhaps I am just poor.

loceng 14y ago
They are planning a $30k sedan.
ww520 14y ago
50K is too much. That's in the luxury brand segments where car companies spent decades to build up brand awareness to justify the price. Put it in the 20K to 30K range and they will make a killing. May be their production capacity can't handle the high volume so they price it to throttle demand.
- bathat 14y ago
  The problem is that batteries are expensive. High-end cars have high margins (it doesn't cost 2x as much to build a $50k car as it does to build a $25k car). When Toyota introduced the Prius, they added all sorts of (what were then) $30k car features. Why? Not because they wanted to make a luxury car, (a friend of mine remarked that if they just added leather seats he would buy one instead of an expensive Lexus) but because it costs next to nothing to add those convenience features. That way people compare the Prius to a $30k car and see only a $1000 hybrid premium instead of a $5000 premium. That's also why you don't see $15k hybrids: Taking all the "premium" features out don't make it cost any less. The reason this is possible is that hybrids and EVs have the margins of much less expensive cars. Edit: added a sentence
  - ww520 14y ago
    The problem with material cost based approach is that it ignores the value of the brand. Yes, it doesn't cost 2x as much to build a $50K car as a $25K car but the branding of the $50K cars took a lots of money and a long time to build up. People are willing to buy a $50K BMW instead of a $20K car not because of the material cost but because of the intangible brand. A Prius arguably does not have the branding of a $30K car. Toyota still sold tons of them, kudos to them. Similarly Tesla simply doesn't have the branding power of a $50K car now.

lisper 14y ago

I hope someone from Tesla is reading this. I really, really wanted to buy a Tesla. But the Roadster was too small, and the Model S is too big. At 196 inches long, it's almost as big as a BMW 7 series. The Right Size for an electric car is ~170-180 inches, about the size of a Prius (or a Lexus IS or an Infiniti G). I was a little dismayed to see that the next car in the pipeline, the Model X, bills itself as a blend of SUV and minivan. That is totally the wrong direction IMHO. You already have one very big car and one very small one. You need a compact-to-midsize to fill out the lineup, not a second huge car.

eduardordm 14y ago
I think their rationale is: Their cars are very expensive. People would buy a 196 inches-long expensive car, they also would buy an expensive sports cars. They wouldn't buy an expensive Prius easily. Maybe they are using their high margins on those cars to have some chance against Asian makers in the future. But, sad truth is, they will develop the very tech that nissan, toyota, hyundai, et al, will use to kill them.
- jlgreco 14y ago
  Tesla is licensing some of their tech to Toyota iirc. I think they are of the attitude that in the current market more electric cars from everyone is good for business.
  - brooksbp 14y ago
    and mercedes
    - patrickk 14y ago
      They have a deal to get some of the interior trim from Mercedes. And Daimler (Mercedes parent company) owns a chunk of Tesla.
- felipemnoa 14y ago
  >>But, sad truth is, they will develop the very tech that nissan, toyota, hyundai, et al, will use to kill them. Could you expand on this? How exactly will Tesla bring about its own demise?

krupan 14y ago

any numbers on cost per mile just to get from point a to point b as compared to a gas-powered car?

revelation 14y ago
Does it matter? Producing electricity is almost trivial to scale up when compared to oil, especially if the political weather forecast for your region is nuclear-friendly. Wolfram has the estimate for you: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2885*kW*h%29%2F%28300*miles%29+*+%28electricity+price+usa%29 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%2885*kW*h%29%2F%28300*... Thats half of what you pay per mile with a Prius: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28gas+price%29+*+%281%2F%2850MPG%29%29 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28gas+price%29+*+%281%... Not included in these calculations is the wear and tear of a standard gasoline engine, which are still running on pretty much the design of the original 1885 Daimler Reitwagen.
danielweber 14y ago
The electricity cost is noise compared to the depreciation and wear on the battery. On that front, Better Place says they can make money leasing batteries to you at 10 cents a mile.

ck2 14y ago

Note that Toyota declared today they are getting out of the plug-in (no gas engine) business entirely. It's interesting it that it likely means they cannot make the margins they want.

eduardordm 14y ago
"Toyota Prius Plug-In adds electric-only mode" http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/08/11/living/automotive/toyota-prius-plug-in-adds-electric-only-mode.html http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/08/11/living/automotive/...
- protomyth 14y ago
  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-toyota-electric-idUSBRE88N0CT20120924?feedType=RSS&dlvrit=56943 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-toyota-electric... From today: "The current capabilities of electric vehicles do not meet society's needs, whether it may be the distance the cars can run, or the costs, or how it takes a long time to charge," said, Uchiyamada, who spearheaded Toyota's development of the Prius hybrid in the 1990s.
- illumin8 14y ago
  The problem with all of the plug-in hybrids is that they can only run about 12 miles on full electric power. I don't know about you, but I need an electric car that can run at least 50 miles to get to work and back.
  - schiffern 14y ago
    The Volt has an EV-only range of 40 miles.

i2oc 14y ago

I'm very excited for mine to arrive in the next 90 days. I know I will be an early adopter in the EV world but I look at it as less of a splurge and more of an investment that could move the industry forward. This will be my fifth car owned and I am tired of two faced dealers, incremental improvements, design without vision and an industry that can but won't improve because of the lucrative parts & service aftermarket. Radio and television is littered with people giving away cars with 0% financing (baking in the profit elsewhere I suspect). It's only a matter of time before we have to bail the auto makers out again. I'm putting my money into Tesla because I believe that if they can make it to the Model E (Bluestar - $30-40k sedan) then we'll have a whole new ballgame on our hands in the automotive space. The Model S is the testing ground for volume manufacturing, the Model X will test platform re-use, then we reach the Model E which will drive down costs. In the mean time I encourage you all to test drive one - even if you are not going to purchase - it's quite the experience. The Tesla stores around North America are now getting their in-store models for test drives. With leasing opening up next summer (rumour has it) it should also make it a tad more accessible to the general public.

nasmorn 14y ago
Does the car come with stock? If not it is investing your money for somebody else's benefit, aka charity. Not that there is anything wrong with that.
- i2oc 14y ago
  If your focus in pure money ROI then I supposed you would be right. At some point, however, we need to vote with our wallets to influence larger investment decisions. At the early stages of adoption per-unit costs will be higher than volume manufacturing. This is where Tesla is at this point (and the EV segment as a whole). If I continued to buy internal combustion vehicles because they were cheaper then I would continue to prop up a segment that needs to either be deprecated or pivot. At this price point I am willing to vote with my wallet in hopes that it will spur on further investment to broaden the market in turn driving down prices through better technology and higher volume sales. This is no different than the PC market in the 1980s - very expensive to buy a PC, but if none of us did then we would have had a different outcome. What is different about this investment than, say, buying a Ferrari is that this feels like something that is moving us forward rather than burning cash on a cool car that the ladies will dig (although you do hope for that as well - it's cool being green after all, right? :)).

LoseThosMan 14y ago

Stopwatch going 400Mhz. I pressed it and it read 55157: 18:16 A man's gift maketh room for him, and bringeth him before great men. 18:17 He that is first in his own cause seemeth just; but his neighbour cometh and searcheth him. 18:18 The lot causeth contentions to cease, and parteth between the mighty. 18:19 A brother offended is harder to be won than a strong city: and their contentions are like the bars of a castle. 18:20 A man's belly shall be satisfied with the fruit of his mouth; and with the increase of his lips shall he be filled. 18:21 Death and life are in the power of the tongue: and they that love it shall eat the fruit thereof. ---- Cain and Abel is the most important story in the Bible. Genesis 4. If I please God, He talks, otherwise I'm supposed to try again. What do you think God wants. Put a lot of thought into that question because it's the most important. God likes bears and elephants. Honey is funny. God says... 8:39 Nor height, nor depth, nor any other creature, shall be able to separate us from the love of God, which is in Christ Jesus our Lord. 9:1 I say the truth in Christ, I lie not, my conscience also bearing me witness in the Holy Ghost, 9:2 That I have great heaviness and continual sorrow in my heart. 9:3 For I could wish that myself were accursed from Christ for my brethren, my kinsmen according to the flesh: 9:4 Who are Israelites; to whom pertaineth the adoption, and the glory, and the covenants, and the giving of the law, and the service of God, and the promises; 9:5 Whose are the fathers, and of whom as concerning the flesh Christ came, who is over all, God blessed for ever. Amen. 9:6 Not as though the word of God hath taken none effect. For they are not all Israel, which are of Israel: 9:7 Neither, because they are the seed of Abraham, are they all children: but, In Isaac shall thy seed be called.

confluence 14y ago

I'm sorry but we're past the "can" stage. Electric propulsion just is better for any type of friction based transport within our atmosphere (trains/buses/planes/cars/bikes). The only problem was battery density per dollar. However, thanks to the incredible - and I mean incredible - success of laptops, phones and tablets over the last decade that problem is just about solved (due to astonishing volume/economies of scale/incremental li-on research/massive factory investment). High battery density at low cost (key) + 92% efficient electric motors (already done) = cheap, efficient transport for all - everywhere (think the electrification of trains - but throughout suburbia). Hook up this electrified network and make it fully autonomous (cars/trains/buses/planes) - and we've just turned the physical world into the Internet. No more oil shocks, no more traffic jams, no more pollution (in city centres), no more time wasted, fully networked, no more car ownership, no more driver deaths - for more see Google car discussions elsewhere. We will utilise fully electric transportation systems within the decade for the same reason that gasoline/diesel based transport dominated electric back in 1900 - it's just better, faster and cheaper. It also has the benefit of allowing us stop giving a shit about the hell hole that is the Middle East (I went there). With the introduction of electric cars, the astonishing growth and dramatic lowering in cost of solar PV (thanks to China) and the development of nuclear fusion with the ITER plant - you'll soon wonder why you cared about the price of oil at all. The electric car will send everyone in the Middle East back to Africa level care and development levels - a.k.a. We will no longer give a shit and brutal poverty.

sliverstorm 14y ago
Electric motors are awesome, but you're underestimating how far behind battery technology is as a automotive power source compared to gasoline.
- confluence 14y ago
  Perhaps - I'm willing to concede. However the facts of the matter are such: Gasoline is only ~15% efficient. Gasoline is assumed to be past peak oil - hence prices must rise with time (look at your local petrol station). Battery tech on the other hand falls in cost by 5% per year. Electric engines are 92% efficient - batteries fall in cost 4x over next decade - EV cost/range parity will occur by 2018. Give it 5 years and they'll be electric Toyota Corolla's rolling around with middle class drivers behind the wheel.

bane 14y ago

Tesla, here's what I want. - $30k base (I buy around $20k, but can justify the delta because of the fuel savings), could care less what the top end is, but probably no more than $45k. - Accord or Sonata size. I'd even settle for a BMW 3-series or C class size. - For the base price I want 300 mile range. - Seats 4-5 adults - don't need leather seats or other fancy stuff, just a/c am/fm/hd/xm radio with an Aux in. Don't care about touch screen nonsense, GPS nav, maybe just give me a place to put my phone and it'll fill in for all that stuff. I don't even care about a CD player, the phone will handle it all through aux. - Cruise control is cool, but I won't pay a dollar more for it - 0-60 in under 6 seconds. - 5 star crash ratings all around - sell it with civic/accord like reliability for 5 years - then I'll buy it everything else is cool, hell I'd love to plunk down on a top of the line model-S, I drool when I watch Veyron top speed runs, I love this stuff, but honestly when I get down to it, I think of cars like rapidly depreciating transport appliances. They have to be cheap and reliable, utilitarian and just reasonably comfortable (not luxurious). I don't care if the car is 50/50 weight balanced, or the car can park itself, or the cup holders retract into the dash. I don't give a shit about this. It's not that I can't afford it, it's just that I'd rather do other things with my money. This is not a value judgement on those that do spend on cars, but it's not what I spend my money on. I'm the type of car buyer that buys 1 car every 10-12 years and drives them for over 250k miles or till the wheels fall off. I buy in the segment of cars that sells something like a quarter million cars a month in the U.S. alone. There are a lot of us. (and yes, the model-S and X are probably among the most beautiful production cars in the world today)

sliverstorm 14y ago
I think that was about as useful a list of demands as mine: - $30k base price - Be a Ferrari You're basically asking for the performance and size of an M3, the reliability of a Civic, the range of a Japanese gasoline car, all for the price of... well, a Civic. Presumably all while maintaining electric's 200mpgE+. Of course it would sell; it would be the biggest bargain in automotive history. *mpgE = miles per gallon equivalent
- Me1000 14y ago
  I won't pretend to be an expert on internal combustion engines, but I don't think the demands are that bad. Electric engines have 100% torque all the time, which isn't true of gas engines. I believe that essentially implies a fast take off speed isn't that difficult for an electric car, and would have very little affect on it's overall distance per charge.

simonsarris 14y ago

> Musk says eventually the company will make another car that many more of us could afford. > "It's really been my goal from the beginning for Tesla to produce a mass-market car," Musk says. It blows my mind that the article and comments here have yet to mention the Nissan Leaf. http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index Isn't that more mainstream already? By miles? I see them in New Hampshire for chrissake. You can get them for 27K after rebate. Does nobody care because it doesn't look fast?

confluence 14y ago
It is a mainstream car - but it isn't mainstream because their range is atrocious (good for some - not for most). We need ~250-300 mile range cars going at 30K for mainstream adoption.

sksksk 14y ago

I think in order to make the electric car go mainstream, we need to move past the idea of car ownership. For a lot of people, car sharing provides people with the benefits they need from a car without the hassle of owning it. In the case of electric cars, where a huge barrier to using one is the charging time, car sharing nearly completely solves the problem. Because cars are returned to the same locations in between reservations, they will be constantly charging during the time they're not being driven. Plus all the infrastructure cost is shared over the members (if, for example, you live in a city, you might not be able to install a charging station because you have on street parking)

Zenst 14y ago

I believe for cities and dense populated area's were charge points easily viable that electric cars have there real niche if the price and incentives to migrate are there. Offset against cleaner air in dense populated area's/cities and its a win win. But until some extra leaps in power storage are made then we still have a little way to go until things truely pick up. Though a car that could act as a pod that could attach onto a transport train line would truely open up interesting options in personal transport and charging alternatives.