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What would TSMC do if they couldn't sell chips to the USA? It cuts both ways, like most trade negotiations.

by _hyn3 1y ago

MBCook 1y ago
Is “don’t buy stuff with TSMC chips” really a valid option we have? Isn’t that basically “stop buying high technology” to a large degree?
- treyd 1y ago
  We can use older processes if we have to. We'd be taking a step back of... maybe 5-10 years? Computers 10 years ago were not that much slower than they are today. Volume would be a bigger concern than performance. Maybe it'd force the tech industry to start writing more efficient user-facing software instead of depending on the incremental advancements made by chip designers and semi fabs.
  - Aurornis 1y ago
    > We'd be taking a step back of... maybe 5-10 years? Computers 10 years ago were not that much slower than they are today There’s more to the world of computing than your laptop. Stepping back to 10 year old GPUs and server CPUs would be a massive handicap on the country. > Maybe it'd force the tech industry to start writing more efficient user-facing software instead of depending on the incremental advancements made by chip designers and semi fabs. It’s not about the speed of your laptop loading Slack. Large scale compute is already squeezing as much performance as we can out of server hardware.
    - MBCook 1y ago
      Not to mention there wouldn’t even be enough capacity to make all the chips we need even if we went with slower chips.
  - notTooFarGone 1y ago
    And that's my friends is how to crash the stock market.
- hobobaggins 1y ago
  > Is “don’t buy stuff with TSMC chips” really a valid option we have? Not sure that TSMC would want to do that either! We're probably their biggest market, even allowing for China. > Isn’t that basically “stop buying high technology” to a large degree? I think you're right, to an extent, at leastt in the near term. However, we do have (and especially used to have) various fabbing here in the States, from Samsung to Intel. Especially the latter has been neglected, but these changes would probably accelerate on-shoring and perhaps bring some of it back here. Don't forget that TSMC is in a country that is probably going to go through some significant instability in the next few years. From a business continuity perspective, we'd need to consider availability and supply chain management with the strong possibility of a major vendor being located in the middle of a hot warzone.
  - MBCook 1y ago
    I’m not arguing TSMC is in a good place geopolitically. I agree there’s a huge risk there. I just don’t think “don’t use TSMC“ is a realistic choice at all right now. That’s like telling someone in rural Montana “just don’t use a car”. If you want to live a normal life it’s not very doable.
- izacus 1y ago
  The amazing thing about (near) monopolies is that companies don't have to worry about folks voting with their wallets anymore. Those pesky customers and their demands have been dealt with!
1over137 1y ago
Sell to the other 95% of humanity I guess.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- DaSHacka 1y ago
  But what percentage of total sales do they make up?
tzs 1y ago
If they could no longer sell in the USA than they would no longer have a reason to care about US restrictions on selling chips to other countries. China would be happy to buy many of the chips the US was no longer buying.

What would TSMC do if they couldn't sell chips to the USA? It cuts both ways, like most trade negotiations.

by _hyn3 1y ago

What would TSMC do if they couldn't sell chips to the USA? It cuts both ways, like most trade negotiations.

Is “don’t buy stuff with TSMC chips” really a valid option we have? Isn’t that basically “stop buying high technology” to a large degree?

treyd 1y ago
We can use older processes if we have to. We'd be taking a step back of... maybe 5-10 years? Computers 10 years ago were not that much slower than they are today. Volume would be a bigger concern than performance. Maybe it'd force the tech industry to start writing more efficient user-facing software instead of depending on the incremental advancements made by chip designers and semi fabs.
- Aurornis 1y ago
  > We'd be taking a step back of... maybe 5-10 years? Computers 10 years ago were not that much slower than they are today There’s more to the world of computing than your laptop. Stepping back to 10 year old GPUs and server CPUs would be a massive handicap on the country. > Maybe it'd force the tech industry to start writing more efficient user-facing software instead of depending on the incremental advancements made by chip designers and semi fabs. It’s not about the speed of your laptop loading Slack. Large scale compute is already squeezing as much performance as we can out of server hardware.
  - MBCook 1y ago
    Not to mention there wouldn’t even be enough capacity to make all the chips we need even if we went with slower chips.
- notTooFarGone 1y ago
  And that's my friends is how to crash the stock market.
hobobaggins 1y ago
> Is “don’t buy stuff with TSMC chips” really a valid option we have? Not sure that TSMC would want to do that either! We're probably their biggest market, even allowing for China. > Isn’t that basically “stop buying high technology” to a large degree? I think you're right, to an extent, at leastt in the near term. However, we do have (and especially used to have) various fabbing here in the States, from Samsung to Intel. Especially the latter has been neglected, but these changes would probably accelerate on-shoring and perhaps bring some of it back here. Don't forget that TSMC is in a country that is probably going to go through some significant instability in the next few years. From a business continuity perspective, we'd need to consider availability and supply chain management with the strong possibility of a major vendor being located in the middle of a hot warzone.
- MBCook 1y ago
  I’m not arguing TSMC is in a good place geopolitically. I agree there’s a huge risk there. I just don’t think “don’t use TSMC“ is a realistic choice at all right now. That’s like telling someone in rural Montana “just don’t use a car”. If you want to live a normal life it’s not very doable.
izacus 1y ago
The amazing thing about (near) monopolies is that companies don't have to worry about folks voting with their wallets anymore. Those pesky customers and their demands have been dealt with!

1over137 1y ago

Sell to the other 95% of humanity I guess.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
DaSHacka 1y ago
But what percentage of total sales do they make up?

tzs 1y ago

If they could no longer sell in the USA than they would no longer have a reason to care about US restrictions on selling chips to other countries. China would be happy to buy many of the chips the US was no longer buying.