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Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks: what a decade
- ChumpGPT 2y agolink to full talk. https://x.com/vincentweisser/status/1867719020444889118 https://x.com/vincentweisser/status/1867719020444889118
- ZYbCRq22HbJ2y7 2y agoNothing new is really said? Yet, things are going to happen!
- defenestrated 2y agoCleaner link https://xcancel.com/vincentweisser/status/1867719020444889118 https://xcancel.com/vincentweisser/status/186771902044488911...
- thih9 2y agoIs there a transcript? The slides are very clear and useful already but I guess there is more.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- skissane 2y agoAlready being discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42413677 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42413677
- nopinsight 2y agoAn important point from this talk: The better the models are at reasoning, the less predictable they become. This is analogous to top chess engines which make surprising moves that even human super grandmasters can't always understand. Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if superintelligence takes control). Link to the full talk & the time he talks about this: https://youtu.be/1yvBqasHLZs?si=3M6eZCQtXnW2tSUd&t=866 https://youtu.be/1yvBqasHLZs?si=3M6eZCQtXnW2tSUd&t=866
- AceJohnny2 2y ago> Thus, the future will be unpredictable (if we let superintelligence take control) As opposed to the predictable future we've had for the past few decades?
- nopinsight 2y agoI think it's a matter of magnitude and semantics. It was quite predictable that the Internet would take off, become ubiquitous, and highly influential. If superintelligence emerges soon, we may not even know which technologies will emerge and how many will be unleashed in the next 2 decades. ADDED: Examples of some concrete predictions: (1980) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave_(Toffler_book) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave_(Toffler_book) (1995) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_Ahead_(Gates_book) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_Ahead_(Gates_book) Obviously, specifics differ from predictions and plenty of people got it wrong. Many good forecasters got the broad strokes right though. Which forecasters can even predict most technologies that would be invented after ASI emerges?
- adrianN 2y agoPlenty of people predicted that the Internet was just a fad.
- someothherguyy 2y agoWouldn't base economics dictate that, not ASI? A state can have knowledge of how to do things, how things work, hypothetical implementations, etc. However, if a state lacks the resources, skill, or desire to actually confirm and implement those hypothetical technologies, would they just stagnate? There might be a bottleneck there?
- nopinsight 2y agoResources will surely impact near-term possibilities. The space of possibilities is probably large enough that, given time, ASI can get around most limitations if it has the desire/goal to implement them.
- saranshsharma 2y ago[dead]
- Caitlynmeeks 2y agoif you don't want to dip your toe in the festering pile of crap that is X: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yvBqasHLZs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yvBqasHLZs
- TheSisb2 2y agoI appreciate the link, but the tone of this comment is very un-HN. I don’t even see people talk that way about 4chan, which one can argue would deserve it more.
- melvinmelih 2y agoInteresting that he left out the concept of safety (being the founder of a company called Safe SuperIntelligence). Would have been curious to his thoughts on that.
- defenestrated 2y agoCleaner link: https://xcancel.com/vincentweisser/status/1867719020444889118 https://xcancel.com/vincentweisser/status/186771902044488911...
- tablatom 2y agoAny recommendations for thinkers writing good analysis on the implications of superintelligence for society? Especially interested in positive takes that are well thought through. Are there any? Ideally voices that don’t have a vested interest. For example, give a superintelligence some money, tell it to start a company. Surely it’s going to quickly understand it needs to manipulate people to get them to do the things it wants, in the same way a kindergarten teacher has to “manipulate” the kids sometimes. Personally I can’t see how we’re not going to find ourselves in a power struggle with these things. Does that make me an AI doomer party pooper? So far I haven’t found a coherent optimistic analysis. Just lots of very superficial “it will solve hard problems for us! Cure disease!” It certainly could be that I haven’t looked hard enough. That’s why I’m asking.