17 ms·

SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

84 points by jwjohnson314 2y ago

jwjohnson314 2y ago
If you have a pair of eclipse glasses you may be able to see the sunspot cluster causing all the action with them, it’s enormous.
- icegreentea2 2y ago
  I just went a took a look, seems like I could see sunspots around the 3oclock position.
  - uticus 2y ago
    Just verified I can see also, Central US. Wow that's huge to be visible from earth with no magnification.
    - krasotkin 2y ago
      I just stepped out and can offer another anecdotal verification here. This is about as prominent as a transit of Venus. It's really something!
sukhavati 2y ago
I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof. Mathew Owens post [4] [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-dashboard https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-das... [2] https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-system-gps-community-dashboard https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-sys... [4] https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372 https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372
- DoctorOetker 2y ago
  in link [4], what timezone is displayed? trying to figure out if I will be at the day or night side
  - sukhavati 2y ago
    all of them are UTC I believe, Prof. Mat answer to a question about the tz on the post replies
- atonse 2y ago
  I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?
  - sukhavati 2y ago
    I was trying to find stuff around Oct 2003 when the last event of this magnitude took place, but I wasn't able to find anything comparable. From what I can tell the forecast is more mild on the 12th UTC, so I wouldn't worry that much about that. I was worried in my case because my flight leaves pretty much at the apex of the geomagnetic storm. I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and some control tower congestion & issues. Can't really comment with any more detail.
    - skywal_l 2y ago
      Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 there's already been a G4 in march and it didn't seem to have caused any issues (AFAIK).
      - sukhavati 2y ago
        The March G4 was unexpected. I wouldn't be surprised if this one turns out to be much stronger than is modeled today as well.
deleted 2y ago
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FL410 2y ago
I am confused by the slide, which mentions in the first bullet point that this is the first "G4" since 2005, but in the last bullet point says there was one in March.
- Shank 2y ago
  It’s the first G4 watch, but not the first G4 event. In other words, the prior G4 event was not predicted. It can happen that an event is more significant when it arrives than what was predicted, which is what happened here.
  - webdoodle 2y ago
    It also resulted in Aurora visible in Mexico.
  - anileated 2y ago
    A G4 storm was forecast yesterday, but guess what—a G5 was observed: https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed. As with G4 before, not predicted.
- uticus 2y ago
  it's a typo, Mar 2024 was a G3, not G4. ref https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 and link in comments there. [edit] i stand corrected, there was a G4 in march. sibling comment is correct. ref https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-observed-24-march-2024 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-...
webdoodle 2y ago
Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in. https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&year=2024 https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...
- sukhavati 2y ago
  the solar spot is comparable in size but the CME were significantly (100x) less energetic than is estimated for Carrington. With that said, the Earth's magnetic field has weakened by ~15% since the 1800s so there's that...
  - briantakita 2y ago
    There are 6 X-class flares. Solar Flares can cannibalize each other. If the different flares travel at different velocities. Leading to a larger impact. Obviously, we were not able to measure how many solar flares came from the Carrington Event or if this cannibalization occurred.
- ablation 2y ago
  > Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue. Don't worry, though. The four CMEs currently en route to Earth--even combined--are probably no match for the monster CME of 1859. The Carrington Event won't happen again this weekend.
ChrisArchitect 2y ago
[dupe] More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394
mikewarot 2y ago
One of these days I'll see the Northern Lights.... somehow I don't think this will be it. 8(
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

84 points by jwjohnson314 2y ago

If you have a pair of eclipse glasses you may be able to see the sunspot cluster causing all the action with them, it’s enormous.

icegreentea2 2y ago
I just went a took a look, seems like I could see sunspots around the 3oclock position.
- uticus 2y ago
  Just verified I can see also, Central US. Wow that's huge to be visible from earth with no magnification.
  - krasotkin 2y ago
    I just stepped out and can offer another anecdotal verification here. This is about as prominent as a transit of Venus. It's really something!

sukhavati 2y ago

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof. Mathew Owens post [4] [1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-dashboard https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-das... [2] https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-system-gps-community-dashboard https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-sys... [4] https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372 https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372

DoctorOetker 2y ago
in link [4], what timezone is displayed? trying to figure out if I will be at the day or night side
- sukhavati 2y ago
  all of them are UTC I believe, Prof. Mat answer to a question about the tz on the post replies
atonse 2y ago
I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?
- sukhavati 2y ago
  I was trying to find stuff around Oct 2003 when the last event of this magnitude took place, but I wasn't able to find anything comparable. From what I can tell the forecast is more mild on the 12th UTC, so I wouldn't worry that much about that. I was worried in my case because my flight leaves pretty much at the apex of the geomagnetic storm. I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and some control tower congestion & issues. Can't really comment with any more detail.
  - skywal_l 2y ago
    Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 there's already been a G4 in march and it didn't seem to have caused any issues (AFAIK).
    - sukhavati 2y ago
      The March G4 was unexpected. I wouldn't be surprised if this one turns out to be much stronger than is modeled today as well.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

FL410 2y ago

I am confused by the slide, which mentions in the first bullet point that this is the first "G4" since 2005, but in the last bullet point says there was one in March.

Shank 2y ago
It’s the first G4 watch, but not the first G4 event. In other words, the prior G4 event was not predicted. It can happen that an event is more significant when it arrives than what was predicted, which is what happened here.
- webdoodle 2y ago
  It also resulted in Aurora visible in Mexico.
- anileated 2y ago
  A G4 storm was forecast yesterday, but guess what—a G5 was observed: https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed. As with G4 before, not predicted.
uticus 2y ago
it's a typo, Mar 2024 was a G3, not G4. ref https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 and link in comments there. [edit] i stand corrected, there was a G4 in march. sibling comment is correct. ref https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-observed-24-march-2024 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-...

webdoodle 2y ago

Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in. https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&year=2024 https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...

sukhavati 2y ago
the solar spot is comparable in size but the CME were significantly (100x) less energetic than is estimated for Carrington. With that said, the Earth's magnetic field has weakened by ~15% since the 1800s so there's that...
- briantakita 2y ago
  There are 6 X-class flares. Solar Flares can cannibalize each other. If the different flares travel at different velocities. Leading to a larger impact. Obviously, we were not able to measure how many solar flares came from the Carrington Event or if this cannibalization occurred.
ablation 2y ago
> Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue. Don't worry, though. The four CMEs currently en route to Earth--even combined--are probably no match for the monster CME of 1859. The Carrington Event won't happen again this weekend.

ChrisArchitect 2y ago

[dupe] More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394

mikewarot 2y ago

One of these days I'll see the Northern Lights.... somehow I don't think this will be it. 8(

deleted 2y ago

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