9 ms·

Spike in short selling in Israeli-company ETF days before Oct 7 [pdf]

88 points by tecc501 3y ago

gimdilia 3y ago
[flagged]
- vkou 3y ago
  Is this implying that these kinds of events are politically advantageous to pro-settlement and native-displacement factions in Parliament? Get attacked, retaliate with orders-of-magnitude more force, and drive natives out of their homes and into progressively smaller and more-fragmented reservations?
  - hotdogscout 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - padjo 3y ago
      Irish people are not native to Dublin either, but somehow it’s still our capital and not full of Danish people
      - hotdogscout 3y ago
        Indeed. How does that disprove what I said? Palestinians are not native to Jerusalem, neither are Irish people native to Dublin.
  - bboygravity 3y ago
    I have a hard time following the logic here. "Natives" (wut?) start 3 wars with the explicit goal to exterminate an entire nation. They lose all the wars they started (which comes with losing some territory, which is often the case when one loses a war) and that's somehow the fault of the country under attack? So the winning party was supposed to give the losing party extra land for their effort of attempting to exterminate them or what is the idea here?
    - hotdogscout 3y ago
      The logic for some is undermining western liberal capitalism to create either a national socialist or marxist leninist dictatorship in it's ruins.
      - vkou 3y ago
        I didn't realize that accurately describing the 75-year-ongoing process of displacing people from their homes at gunpoint undermines 'western liberal capitalism'. Is that sort of thing an integral pillar of it, or something? Will I find it in the Wealth of Nations? Or, maybe, somewhere in Hobbes? The criticisms are telling. None of them address the point, they just split hairs about who is and isn't 'native'[1]. [1] When a group of people moves into a land that is already lived in by another group, the first group are settlers, the second group are natives. That group might be settlers vis-a-vis[2] some other relationship in the distant past, but in the present day, they are natives. Just like if a billion people from Asia moved into the United States tomorrow, to displace Americans living in it into reservations, the current residents of Houston, NYC, Miami, etc, would be considered natives. [2] Strangely enough, most proponents of 'western liberal capitalism' seem to understand this kind of concept when it comes to modern property rights (which tend to prohibit me from stealing land that an ancestor of its current owner stole centuries ago), but many of them become selectively blind to it when applied to on-going colonization.
  - myth_drannon 3y ago
    Arabs are not natives in Gaza, or anywhere in the Levant.
- myth_drannon 3y ago
  There are many articles on the subject. It's not about Mossad, but Military Intelligence failure. The bells were ringing, and people were screaming but were simply ignored (because of the organizational culture and "women are panicky"). But of course there's a lot of clarity in hindsight...
- nolongerthere 3y ago
  Israel has been in political turmoil for nearly three years, in the last 6 months half the country was refusing to show up for reserve duty, this was purely an organizational failure, Hamas took advantage of a dip in readiness, trying to spin this into some web of conspiracies just continues to infantilize a group that has committed enormous atrocities against their own people for decades now.
yieldcrv 3y ago
so, when this happened on 9/11 the actual investigation found a stock picking newsletter that had simply called the stock sector for technical analysis reasons this paper only compares volume to prior campaigns in Israel, and draws a conclusions based on that additionally it has the bias of saying these are “gaps in enforcement of insider trading laws”, seemingly not understanding that an insider trading law would not cover things occurring outside of a company. nor should it. its short selling of an ETF over a geopolitical event so its just as likely any random stock picking newsletter could have called it. there’s even a guy on reddit that says Gaza attacks are based on the moon phase and tried to warn Israel, he happened to be not-inaccurate this time but its totally based on correlations only
- apercu 3y ago
  Even if not correlated, this is diabolically genius for all state sponsors and financiers of terrorism.
  - htrp 3y ago
    Not sure if it's diabolical genius, it was literally the opening plot point of the bond film Casino Royale
    - jondwillis 3y ago
      Bond films are notorious for never having what could be colloquially referred to as some kind of diabolical genius involved in the plot.
      - peterleiser 3y ago
        Maybe so, but they definitely feature Evil Lair fetishists.
  - yieldcrv 3y ago
    it’s not, the instruction manual exists for decades if you like conspiracies.
ninja3925 3y ago
For anybody close to the topic and knowing how shocked the Israeli society was on Oct 7th, this paper makes a very strong claim that needs more than just circumstantial evidence (higher short trades). Like any circumstantial evidence, many reasons could trigger unusual trading patterns
- lupusreal 3y ago
  Society generally being shocked is not inconsistent with a few people secretly not being shocked.
- DarknessFalls 3y ago
  As the article goes to great lengths to point out, the trades in EIS weren't random. They represented the second highest spike in short trades in the ETF behind April of this year, when it was predicted that Hamas would attack on the eve of Passover. It's difficult to argue that this surge was merely coincidence or statistical noise. As for the Israeli public at large being informed about these attacks and knowing precisely when they would occur, it would seem they were as astonished as anyone. Whomever made these short trades on Oct 2nd were likely only a handful of informed parties. That's the component of this I'd love to know. Could the SEC determine where these trades originated and were they within a Pro-Hamas country like Lebanon, Iran or... Saudi Arabia? Or did it originate within the intelligence community, acting in bad faith?
  - rossdavidh 3y ago
    It does look interesting, but the fact that it was not even the highest spike in the previous 52 weeks, much less of any longer time period, makes it a lot less impressive than it sounds at first. Now, I know of no reason why Hamas, Iran, or Russian sources that knew something was about to go off, would not have tried to profit from that (through proxies of one sort or another). But this doesn't quite seem unusual enough to act on. If this kind of spike triggered an alarm, it would have gone off a couple times in the previous 52 weeks alone, and any alarm that has that many false positives will get ignored eventually.
Invictus0 3y ago
From what I've read, even Hamas' own leaders were unaware of the Oct 7 attack planning. Maybe the Israeli equivalent of the SEC can figure out who placed these trades.
- that_guy_iain 3y ago
  These trades were done in US exchanges and would fall under SEC. But considering they didn't investigate all the shorts before 9/11 it's doubtful they'll do much here.
- H8crilA 3y ago
  Egyptian intelligence knew about it and warned. Moreover there were detailed plans known already about a year earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h... This is kind of similar, but smaller in scale, to how Ukraine was surprised that there was actually a push on Kyiv from the north with an attempt at decapitating the state. It's one thing to have the intelligence at hand, it's another to have the political power circle believe it.
  - miguelazo 3y ago
    There was never a plan to decapitate the Ukrainian state. That is utterly absurd when you consider there were Russian intelligence assets in Zelensky’s inner circle for a very long time. Russia could have killed him day 1 if they wanted to (or before). Encircling Kyiv was merely for negotiating pressure. As evidenced by them withdrawing from that position as part of the ceasefire negotiations in Turkey in the Spring of 2022– the ones that the US and UK undermined, recently confirmed by additional parties.
    - lupusreal 3y ago
      [dead]
    - meroes 3y ago
      So they left a strong wartime leader in place for their enemy for their upcoming war? Why? Since you’re so sure about intelligence capabilities, why couldn’t the West have known and taken precautions?
gjsman-1000 3y ago
There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the popularity of their struggling president. Thoughts? (Edit: For those questioning how this would improve the prime minister's or president's approval, few things improve the popularity of a president, or a prime minister, than a declaration of war following a catastrophic event. Bush reached 86% popular support after 9/11.)
- borissk 3y ago
  Both Bibi and Hamas leaders are corrupted war criminals, that can only gain political dividends if the conflict escalates and will go to jail if it gets peacefully resolved.
- rowanseymour 3y ago
  > It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack This is an odd way to decribe things considering Gaza is not a state. Its population is mostly refugees who were ethnically cleansed from nearby villages and functionally it operates as a concentration camp preventing those people from trying to return to those villages which are now occupied by settlers.
  - gjsman-1000 3y ago
    It might not be a state, but it is a "polity" (politically identifiable identity). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip Also, it has been de facto ruled by Hamas since (edit: 2007) despite formally being under the control of the Palestinian Authority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governance_of_the_Gaza_Strip https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governance_of_the_Gaza_Strip
    - rowanseymour 3y ago
borissk 3y ago
IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?
- k2xl 3y ago
  Why do you think there is a good chance?
  - gjsman-1000 3y ago
    Well, look at Gaza. If you are Israel, you hate that it exists (and of course, vice versa). In 2006, Gaza had the borders closed and was sealed in. Gaza's population was 473,257 people. Instead of giving in, Gaza decided to have a lot of children, resulting in a population of 2.048 million people as of 2020. Kind of a failure on multiple levels. And now all those people want to kill you for what you did to them. That sucks. Your prime minister who has served for over 16 years is taking the blame with about ~20% popularity. Things need to be fixed. One day, you wake up, and find out Gaza's planning an attack. And for once, instead of responding forcefully, you decide: What if we did nothing? They attack, we respond with the world behind our backs, and solve this problem. I'm not saying that what's happened. It just seems plausible.
    - k2xl 3y ago
      This kind of thinking reminds me of Loose Change 9/11 conspiracy about how 9/11 was an inside job. Do you agree that there is parallels in the conspiracy theories?
  - borissk 3y ago
    Because Mossad is one of the best in the world and they were reporting of suspicions Hamas activity. An Egyptian official also warned Israel of incoming Hamas attack. The attack took years to prepare. "The groups carried out joint drills in Gaza which closely resembled the tactics used during the deadly assault - including at a site less than 1km (0.6 miles) from the barrier with Israel - and posted them on social media. They practised hostage-taking, raiding compounds and breaching Israel's defences during these exercises, the last of which was held just 25 days before the attack."
typon 3y ago
The Egyptian intelligence services repeatedly warned of an incoming attack and the Israelis ignored the warnings. Maybe the information was kicked up by the traders? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047.amp
- bhouston 3y ago
  > The Egyptian intelligence services repeatedly warned of an incoming attack and the Israelis ignored the warnings. Parts of Israeli intelligence also had a lot of advanced warning but it was dismissed by higher ups. Most likely the trading was based on people who either read the internal Israeli intelligence on this topic or the Egyptian stuff. It is unlikely it was Qatar or Hamas associates, but rather more sophisticated actors who were in the Israeli market already and were used to acting on leaked information. The main issue is how did someone get a date. The warnings I read were all sort of vague in terms of the exact date, rather specifying the high level plan.
throwaway290 3y ago
In case the title confuses someone like me. The paper suggests that people who knew about the October attacks (so probably not Israelis, we can have a few guesses who) were short selling Israeli companies, as well as index funds based on Israeli companies, just in time. This happened both on US markets and elsewhere. So that while blood was being spilled they lined their pockets. It'd be interesting but I guess impossible to see how much it is later converted to crypto and reinvested into terrorism and how much is just blood profits that get reinvested. The paper obviously can't tell who is trading and why, so it's not a positive proof, but it'd be interesting to see if money could be followed. Looks like they did a lot of work to eliminate any false signals. I wish their typography was more readable, that line height is a major pain to read and why is it a PDF for crying out loud.
- peterleiser 3y ago
  The SEC knows who is trading, and is likely investigating why.
gizajob 3y ago
Ha why is this being flagged?? Evidence of conspiracy flagged as conspiracy.
Frummy 3y ago
Makes me think of when in a trading context I was advised that Russia had moved soldiers close to the borders of Ukraine, some other customers had taken highly leveraged trading positions, and a while later that invasion began, and all the second order effects in the market took place. I don't trade anymore. Curious how some individuals through profit incentive anticipate world events with more agility and foresight than the institutions that lead us
nolongerthere 3y ago
Considering Qatar (and thus by proxy Hamas and Iran) has access to global markets it’s not clear to me why the assumption here is that these moves came from Israeli leadership and not the more likely source… those planning the slaughter who also wanted to benefit economically and not just in blood.
- ethanrc 3y ago
  the story is a Rorschach test for your politics -- if big bad globalist bankers control everything, of course they allow their own people to be slaughtered for financial gain
- sudosysgen 3y ago
  There is currently no evidence that Iran or Qatar knew about the timing of the attacks, and the US's position is that they don't believe it was known. See : https://www.reuters.com/world/initial-us-intelligence-shows-hamas-attack-surprised-iranian-leaders-ny-times-2023-10-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/initial-us-intelligence-shows-... > Initial U.S. intelligence reports show that some Iranian leaders were surprised by the Islamist group's unprecedented attack from Gaza, U.S. sources said on Wednesday. > A U.S. official said, however, that Iran, Israel's regional arch-foe, had likely been aware that Hamas was planning to take action against Israel "but without the precise timing or scope of what occurred" last weekend. It's also a fairly low amount of money for already-rich Qatari royalty to risk running afoul of their access to US markets.
  - rokkitmensch 3y ago
    Homie we would have nary a fart of evidence. OSINT is a 5EYES figment to convince us proles it's even remotely feasible to know what is transpiring.

88 points by tecc501 3y ago

gimdilia 3y ago

[flagged]

vkou 3y ago
Is this implying that these kinds of events are politically advantageous to pro-settlement and native-displacement factions in Parliament? Get attacked, retaliate with orders-of-magnitude more force, and drive natives out of their homes and into progressively smaller and more-fragmented reservations?
- hotdogscout 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - padjo 3y ago
    Irish people are not native to Dublin either, but somehow it’s still our capital and not full of Danish people
    - hotdogscout 3y ago
      Indeed. How does that disprove what I said? Palestinians are not native to Jerusalem, neither are Irish people native to Dublin.
- bboygravity 3y ago
  I have a hard time following the logic here. "Natives" (wut?) start 3 wars with the explicit goal to exterminate an entire nation. They lose all the wars they started (which comes with losing some territory, which is often the case when one loses a war) and that's somehow the fault of the country under attack? So the winning party was supposed to give the losing party extra land for their effort of attempting to exterminate them or what is the idea here?
  - hotdogscout 3y ago
    The logic for some is undermining western liberal capitalism to create either a national socialist or marxist leninist dictatorship in it's ruins.
    - vkou 3y ago
      I didn't realize that accurately describing the 75-year-ongoing process of displacing people from their homes at gunpoint undermines 'western liberal capitalism'. Is that sort of thing an integral pillar of it, or something? Will I find it in the Wealth of Nations? Or, maybe, somewhere in Hobbes? The criticisms are telling. None of them address the point, they just split hairs about who is and isn't 'native'[1]. [1] When a group of people moves into a land that is already lived in by another group, the first group are settlers, the second group are natives. That group might be settlers vis-a-vis[2] some other relationship in the distant past, but in the present day, they are natives. Just like if a billion people from Asia moved into the United States tomorrow, to displace Americans living in it into reservations, the current residents of Houston, NYC, Miami, etc, would be considered natives. [2] Strangely enough, most proponents of 'western liberal capitalism' seem to understand this kind of concept when it comes to modern property rights (which tend to prohibit me from stealing land that an ancestor of its current owner stole centuries ago), but many of them become selectively blind to it when applied to on-going colonization.
- myth_drannon 3y ago
  Arabs are not natives in Gaza, or anywhere in the Levant.
myth_drannon 3y ago
There are many articles on the subject. It's not about Mossad, but Military Intelligence failure. The bells were ringing, and people were screaming but were simply ignored (because of the organizational culture and "women are panicky"). But of course there's a lot of clarity in hindsight...
nolongerthere 3y ago
Israel has been in political turmoil for nearly three years, in the last 6 months half the country was refusing to show up for reserve duty, this was purely an organizational failure, Hamas took advantage of a dip in readiness, trying to spin this into some web of conspiracies just continues to infantilize a group that has committed enormous atrocities against their own people for decades now.

yieldcrv 3y ago

so, when this happened on 9/11 the actual investigation found a stock picking newsletter that had simply called the stock sector for technical analysis reasons this paper only compares volume to prior campaigns in Israel, and draws a conclusions based on that additionally it has the bias of saying these are “gaps in enforcement of insider trading laws”, seemingly not understanding that an insider trading law would not cover things occurring outside of a company. nor should it. its short selling of an ETF over a geopolitical event so its just as likely any random stock picking newsletter could have called it. there’s even a guy on reddit that says Gaza attacks are based on the moon phase and tried to warn Israel, he happened to be not-inaccurate this time but its totally based on correlations only

apercu 3y ago
Even if not correlated, this is diabolically genius for all state sponsors and financiers of terrorism.
- htrp 3y ago
  Not sure if it's diabolical genius, it was literally the opening plot point of the bond film Casino Royale
  - jondwillis 3y ago
    Bond films are notorious for never having what could be colloquially referred to as some kind of diabolical genius involved in the plot.
    - peterleiser 3y ago
      Maybe so, but they definitely feature Evil Lair fetishists.
- yieldcrv 3y ago
  it’s not, the instruction manual exists for decades if you like conspiracies.

ninja3925 3y ago

For anybody close to the topic and knowing how shocked the Israeli society was on Oct 7th, this paper makes a very strong claim that needs more than just circumstantial evidence (higher short trades). Like any circumstantial evidence, many reasons could trigger unusual trading patterns

lupusreal 3y ago
Society generally being shocked is not inconsistent with a few people secretly not being shocked.
DarknessFalls 3y ago
As the article goes to great lengths to point out, the trades in EIS weren't random. They represented the second highest spike in short trades in the ETF behind April of this year, when it was predicted that Hamas would attack on the eve of Passover. It's difficult to argue that this surge was merely coincidence or statistical noise. As for the Israeli public at large being informed about these attacks and knowing precisely when they would occur, it would seem they were as astonished as anyone. Whomever made these short trades on Oct 2nd were likely only a handful of informed parties. That's the component of this I'd love to know. Could the SEC determine where these trades originated and were they within a Pro-Hamas country like Lebanon, Iran or... Saudi Arabia? Or did it originate within the intelligence community, acting in bad faith?
- rossdavidh 3y ago
  It does look interesting, but the fact that it was not even the highest spike in the previous 52 weeks, much less of any longer time period, makes it a lot less impressive than it sounds at first. Now, I know of no reason why Hamas, Iran, or Russian sources that knew something was about to go off, would not have tried to profit from that (through proxies of one sort or another). But this doesn't quite seem unusual enough to act on. If this kind of spike triggered an alarm, it would have gone off a couple times in the previous 52 weeks alone, and any alarm that has that many false positives will get ignored eventually.

Invictus0 3y ago

From what I've read, even Hamas' own leaders were unaware of the Oct 7 attack planning. Maybe the Israeli equivalent of the SEC can figure out who placed these trades.

that_guy_iain 3y ago
These trades were done in US exchanges and would fall under SEC. But considering they didn't investigate all the shorts before 9/11 it's doubtful they'll do much here.
H8crilA 3y ago
Egyptian intelligence knew about it and warned. Moreover there were detailed plans known already about a year earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h... This is kind of similar, but smaller in scale, to how Ukraine was surprised that there was actually a push on Kyiv from the north with an attempt at decapitating the state. It's one thing to have the intelligence at hand, it's another to have the political power circle believe it.
- miguelazo 3y ago
  There was never a plan to decapitate the Ukrainian state. That is utterly absurd when you consider there were Russian intelligence assets in Zelensky’s inner circle for a very long time. Russia could have killed him day 1 if they wanted to (or before). Encircling Kyiv was merely for negotiating pressure. As evidenced by them withdrawing from that position as part of the ceasefire negotiations in Turkey in the Spring of 2022– the ones that the US and UK undermined, recently confirmed by additional parties.
  - lupusreal 3y ago
    [dead]
  - meroes 3y ago
    So they left a strong wartime leader in place for their enemy for their upcoming war? Why? Since you’re so sure about intelligence capabilities, why couldn’t the West have known and taken precautions?

gjsman-1000 3y ago

There's a new "conspiracy theory" on the block to explain this and other events (I do admittedly find it plausible): It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack, either Israel's previously famous intelligence service was caught completely off guard (despite the warning by Egypt) - or they let it happen, intentionally, as an excuse to raid Gaza as well as improve the popularity of their struggling president. Thoughts? (Edit: For those questioning how this would improve the prime minister's or president's approval, few things improve the popularity of a president, or a prime minister, than a declaration of war following a catastrophic event. Bush reached 86% popular support after 9/11.)

borissk 3y ago
Both Bibi and Hamas leaders are corrupted war criminals, that can only gain political dividends if the conflict escalates and will go to jail if it gets peacefully resolved.
rowanseymour 3y ago
> It's not like Israel has been, or is, a friend of Gaza. So when Gaza was planning the attack This is an odd way to decribe things considering Gaza is not a state. Its population is mostly refugees who were ethnically cleansed from nearby villages and functionally it operates as a concentration camp preventing those people from trying to return to those villages which are now occupied by settlers.
- gjsman-1000 3y ago
  It might not be a state, but it is a "polity" (politically identifiable identity). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip Also, it has been de facto ruled by Hamas since (edit: 2007) despite formally being under the control of the Palestinian Authority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governance_of_the_Gaza_Strip https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governance_of_the_Gaza_Strip
  - rowanseymour 3y ago

borissk 3y ago

IMHO there's a good chance that Bibi and his friends were warned about the incoming big Hamas attack by Mossad and/or other Israeli agencies. Would Bibi act to prevent it or use it to stay in power and potentially get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza?

k2xl 3y ago
Why do you think there is a good chance?
- gjsman-1000 3y ago
  Well, look at Gaza. If you are Israel, you hate that it exists (and of course, vice versa). In 2006, Gaza had the borders closed and was sealed in. Gaza's population was 473,257 people. Instead of giving in, Gaza decided to have a lot of children, resulting in a population of 2.048 million people as of 2020. Kind of a failure on multiple levels. And now all those people want to kill you for what you did to them. That sucks. Your prime minister who has served for over 16 years is taking the blame with about ~20% popularity. Things need to be fixed. One day, you wake up, and find out Gaza's planning an attack. And for once, instead of responding forcefully, you decide: What if we did nothing? They attack, we respond with the world behind our backs, and solve this problem. I'm not saying that what's happened. It just seems plausible.
  - k2xl 3y ago
    This kind of thinking reminds me of Loose Change 9/11 conspiracy about how 9/11 was an inside job. Do you agree that there is parallels in the conspiracy theories?
- borissk 3y ago
  Because Mossad is one of the best in the world and they were reporting of suspicions Hamas activity. An Egyptian official also warned Israel of incoming Hamas attack. The attack took years to prepare. "The groups carried out joint drills in Gaza which closely resembled the tactics used during the deadly assault - including at a site less than 1km (0.6 miles) from the barrier with Israel - and posted them on social media. They practised hostage-taking, raiding compounds and breaching Israel's defences during these exercises, the last of which was held just 25 days before the attack."

typon 3y ago

The Egyptian intelligence services repeatedly warned of an incoming attack and the Israelis ignored the warnings. Maybe the information was kicked up by the traders? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047.amp

bhouston 3y ago
> The Egyptian intelligence services repeatedly warned of an incoming attack and the Israelis ignored the warnings. Parts of Israeli intelligence also had a lot of advanced warning but it was dismissed by higher ups. Most likely the trading was based on people who either read the internal Israeli intelligence on this topic or the Egyptian stuff. It is unlikely it was Qatar or Hamas associates, but rather more sophisticated actors who were in the Israeli market already and were used to acting on leaked information. The main issue is how did someone get a date. The warnings I read were all sort of vague in terms of the exact date, rather specifying the high level plan.

throwaway290 3y ago

In case the title confuses someone like me. The paper suggests that people who knew about the October attacks (so probably not Israelis, we can have a few guesses who) were short selling Israeli companies, as well as index funds based on Israeli companies, just in time. This happened both on US markets and elsewhere. So that while blood was being spilled they lined their pockets. It'd be interesting but I guess impossible to see how much it is later converted to crypto and reinvested into terrorism and how much is just blood profits that get reinvested. The paper obviously can't tell who is trading and why, so it's not a positive proof, but it'd be interesting to see if money could be followed. Looks like they did a lot of work to eliminate any false signals. I wish their typography was more readable, that line height is a major pain to read and why is it a PDF for crying out loud.

peterleiser 3y ago
The SEC knows who is trading, and is likely investigating why.

gizajob 3y ago

Ha why is this being flagged?? Evidence of conspiracy flagged as conspiracy.

Frummy 3y ago

Makes me think of when in a trading context I was advised that Russia had moved soldiers close to the borders of Ukraine, some other customers had taken highly leveraged trading positions, and a while later that invasion began, and all the second order effects in the market took place. I don't trade anymore. Curious how some individuals through profit incentive anticipate world events with more agility and foresight than the institutions that lead us

nolongerthere 3y ago

Considering Qatar (and thus by proxy Hamas and Iran) has access to global markets it’s not clear to me why the assumption here is that these moves came from Israeli leadership and not the more likely source… those planning the slaughter who also wanted to benefit economically and not just in blood.

ethanrc 3y ago
the story is a Rorschach test for your politics -- if big bad globalist bankers control everything, of course they allow their own people to be slaughtered for financial gain
sudosysgen 3y ago
There is currently no evidence that Iran or Qatar knew about the timing of the attacks, and the US's position is that they don't believe it was known. See : https://www.reuters.com/world/initial-us-intelligence-shows-hamas-attack-surprised-iranian-leaders-ny-times-2023-10-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/initial-us-intelligence-shows-... > Initial U.S. intelligence reports show that some Iranian leaders were surprised by the Islamist group's unprecedented attack from Gaza, U.S. sources said on Wednesday. > A U.S. official said, however, that Iran, Israel's regional arch-foe, had likely been aware that Hamas was planning to take action against Israel "but without the precise timing or scope of what occurred" last weekend. It's also a fairly low amount of money for already-rich Qatari royalty to risk running afoul of their access to US markets.
- rokkitmensch 3y ago
  Homie we would have nary a fart of evidence. OSINT is a 5EYES figment to convince us proles it's even remotely feasible to know what is transpiring.