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In what is interesting, TikTok / ByteDance was on an absolute hiring spree for devs October to January for sure, while most other tech companies took the back s

In what is interesting, TikTok / ByteDance was on an absolute hiring spree for devs October to January for sure, while most other tech companies took the back seat or did cuts. Here’s data I got my hands on, comparing the number of “software engineer” positions at companies and ByteDance stands out unmissably: https://twitter.com/gergelyorosz/status/1628831860611506178 https://twitter.com/gergelyorosz/status/1628831860611506178 Makes me wonder how they missed the memo that Meta got by October/November, Google and Amazon also by end of year: that the market is slowing. I assumed Bytedance had just as good - if not better - data on the market than eg Meta, but Meta seems to have responded far far earlier to what looks like a stagnating market for as spend, than TikTok.

fakedang 4y ago
Hubris maybe? Perhaps they expected to each Meta's lunch, perhaps they expected that their core market in China would not be affected.
poof131 4y ago
I wonder if it’s TikTok vs ByteDance. From my friend at the former, they are growing rapidly and understaffed vs the teams in China which are bloated and looking for projects. Also seems like they may need to sever the corporate structure and tech architecture which may also reduce the need for headcount in China.
rland 4y ago
Tinfoil hat: the cuts have nothing to do with market fundamentals, but are rather collusion by the big players to drop tech salaries. Bytedance is outside the clique.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  Not a tinfoil hat, collusion at this moment is so obvious.
- spiderice 4y ago
  I've heard this theory a number of times. I'm not against it. I just don't understand how it would work. Wouldn't salaries just increase again once everybody starts hiring? If this theory is true, all these layoffs are leaving these companies understaffed. Meaning they need to hire everyone back eventually.
  - vineyardmike 4y ago
    The success is two fold: 1. layoffs make people desperate and reset the expectations. Eg I made 300k at Google but when unemployed I’ll take a job for 100k at a random company. Then Google can hire back at 200k and be the top salary again. 2. Layoffs make the employees scared of being laid off. They don’t expect raises, just employment. They work harder for less just to keep a job. Look at Amazon announcing most people won’t get a raise or even a stock refresh with the stock crash. This works at scale even as some individuals and companies don’t comply. Bonus: layoffs (somewhat) reset the cost basis of the company and save a ton in a long term downturns. It gives cover to kill that blockchain department that everyone realizes they don’t need.
    - MonkeyClub 4y ago
      > It gives cover to kill that blockchain department that everyone realizes they don’t need. There goes Web 3 (and 2.5). I guess we'll be stuck with sucky Web 2 for a while still, while all the aunties are onboarding.
      - mercer 4y ago
        at least word clouds are not so common anymore...
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - rland 4y ago
    Yes, but not immediately. This is how it works: 1. There are a finite number of software engineers capable of competing with FAANG. 2. You outbid outsiders. At times, talk to your friends and tell them not to gum up intra-clique recruiting. 3. This continues for a long time, but at some point, salaries get a little too high. 4. Flush everyone all at once... resetting the baseline of what a tech salary "should be." This resets expectations for all the new talent coming in that might compete with you. 5. After the tech salary "should be" a few tens of thousands less... quietly start (2) again. If you time it right, (2) happens when money is cheap and it's easy to found a competitor, while (4) happens when there is a "tech downturn" and VC are scared. What a tech salary "should be" is quite sticky, it takes a few years of (2) to actually change baseline expectations. The existing cultural understanding of what tech workers "should be making" influences: what do the most promising new hires demand? how aggressive are your existing workers in asking for a raises, promos, etc? what do people take as a "given" and what do they think is a reach for them? These things operate as a sort of piggy bank. Every time you outbid a startup for promising talent, you are drawing from the piggy bank; that person tells their friends, makes a post on linkedin about it, which causes subsequent outbiddings to cost, pound for pound, ever so slightly more. When the piggy bank is empty, you refill it again by traumatizing everyone with a big, industry-wide layoff. But: you can only do this if you have a big hammer to wield. As a bonus, if you can be a little bit discerning in your firings, you actually can shed dead weight in the process.
- satvikpendem 4y ago
  I doubt it's conscious collusion, it seems more like network effects: if everyone around you is dropping employees, it makes sense to do so at the same time so you don't get negative media coverage were you to do it independently. If you do it now, it just seems like you're following the crowd. So while it might seem like active collusion, it's more than likely just emergent game theoretic behavior.
  - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
    > if everyone around you is dropping employees Who was the first person to kick it off? Microsoft? Google? Meta? Meta had a reason because their stock tanked due to Apple's privacy changes or whatever.
    - wkat4242 4y ago
      I think it started with the YCombinator letter in may last year: https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/19/yc-advises-founders-to-plan-for-the-worst/ https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/19/yc-advises-founders-to-pla... I think the economy didn't go as bad as they thought though.
      - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
        what's your personal take: we're in a recession (the beginning, the middle, the end?) or it hasn't even started yet? how long until it starts? how long will it last?
        MonkeyClub 4y ago
        A couple of months back I posed the same question, and a mob came out of the woodwork denying any recession. Then we started having news of thousands of layoffs every couple of weeks. I too wonder how the perception has changed in the meantime - and what the effect of a tech recession/layoffs spree will be on the general economy and real businesses.
        sph 4y ago
- vlan0 4y ago
  “Never let a good crisis go to waste” seems to hold true everywhere. You get less blow back when you can shed folks and blame the economy.
coffeebeqn 4y ago
Isn’t TikTok still growing like crazy? I don’t see why they need to layoff now - that’s like OpenAI saying they’re laying off 10% because the market is so tough.. not for you it isn’t!

fakedang 4y ago

Hubris maybe? Perhaps they expected to each Meta's lunch, perhaps they expected that their core market in China would not be affected.

poof131 4y ago

I wonder if it’s TikTok vs ByteDance. From my friend at the former, they are growing rapidly and understaffed vs the teams in China which are bloated and looking for projects. Also seems like they may need to sever the corporate structure and tech architecture which may also reduce the need for headcount in China.

rland 4y ago

Tinfoil hat: the cuts have nothing to do with market fundamentals, but are rather collusion by the big players to drop tech salaries. Bytedance is outside the clique.

KptMarchewa 4y ago
Not a tinfoil hat, collusion at this moment is so obvious.
spiderice 4y ago
I've heard this theory a number of times. I'm not against it. I just don't understand how it would work. Wouldn't salaries just increase again once everybody starts hiring? If this theory is true, all these layoffs are leaving these companies understaffed. Meaning they need to hire everyone back eventually.
- vineyardmike 4y ago
  The success is two fold: 1. layoffs make people desperate and reset the expectations. Eg I made 300k at Google but when unemployed I’ll take a job for 100k at a random company. Then Google can hire back at 200k and be the top salary again. 2. Layoffs make the employees scared of being laid off. They don’t expect raises, just employment. They work harder for less just to keep a job. Look at Amazon announcing most people won’t get a raise or even a stock refresh with the stock crash. This works at scale even as some individuals and companies don’t comply. Bonus: layoffs (somewhat) reset the cost basis of the company and save a ton in a long term downturns. It gives cover to kill that blockchain department that everyone realizes they don’t need.
  - MonkeyClub 4y ago
    > It gives cover to kill that blockchain department that everyone realizes they don’t need. There goes Web 3 (and 2.5). I guess we'll be stuck with sucky Web 2 for a while still, while all the aunties are onboarding.
    - mercer 4y ago
      at least word clouds are not so common anymore...
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- rland 4y ago
  Yes, but not immediately. This is how it works: 1. There are a finite number of software engineers capable of competing with FAANG. 2. You outbid outsiders. At times, talk to your friends and tell them not to gum up intra-clique recruiting. 3. This continues for a long time, but at some point, salaries get a little too high. 4. Flush everyone all at once... resetting the baseline of what a tech salary "should be." This resets expectations for all the new talent coming in that might compete with you. 5. After the tech salary "should be" a few tens of thousands less... quietly start (2) again. If you time it right, (2) happens when money is cheap and it's easy to found a competitor, while (4) happens when there is a "tech downturn" and VC are scared. What a tech salary "should be" is quite sticky, it takes a few years of (2) to actually change baseline expectations. The existing cultural understanding of what tech workers "should be making" influences: what do the most promising new hires demand? how aggressive are your existing workers in asking for a raises, promos, etc? what do people take as a "given" and what do they think is a reach for them? These things operate as a sort of piggy bank. Every time you outbid a startup for promising talent, you are drawing from the piggy bank; that person tells their friends, makes a post on linkedin about it, which causes subsequent outbiddings to cost, pound for pound, ever so slightly more. When the piggy bank is empty, you refill it again by traumatizing everyone with a big, industry-wide layoff. But: you can only do this if you have a big hammer to wield. As a bonus, if you can be a little bit discerning in your firings, you actually can shed dead weight in the process.
satvikpendem 4y ago
I doubt it's conscious collusion, it seems more like network effects: if everyone around you is dropping employees, it makes sense to do so at the same time so you don't get negative media coverage were you to do it independently. If you do it now, it just seems like you're following the crowd. So while it might seem like active collusion, it's more than likely just emergent game theoretic behavior.
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago
  > if everyone around you is dropping employees Who was the first person to kick it off? Microsoft? Google? Meta? Meta had a reason because their stock tanked due to Apple's privacy changes or whatever.
  - wkat4242 4y ago
    I think it started with the YCombinator letter in may last year: https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/19/yc-advises-founders-to-plan-for-the-worst/ https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/19/yc-advises-founders-to-pla... I think the economy didn't go as bad as they thought though.
    - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
      what's your personal take: we're in a recession (the beginning, the middle, the end?) or it hasn't even started yet? how long until it starts? how long will it last?
      - MonkeyClub 4y ago
        A couple of months back I posed the same question, and a mob came out of the woodwork denying any recession. Then we started having news of thousands of layoffs every couple of weeks. I too wonder how the perception has changed in the meantime - and what the effect of a tech recession/layoffs spree will be on the general economy and real businesses.
      - sph 4y ago
vlan0 4y ago
“Never let a good crisis go to waste” seems to hold true everywhere. You get less blow back when you can shed folks and blame the economy.

coffeebeqn 4y ago

Isn’t TikTok still growing like crazy? I don’t see why they need to layoff now - that’s like OpenAI saying they’re laying off 10% because the market is so tough.. not for you it isn’t!