29 ms·

Elon's word is worth very little these days, needs to be on paper under scrutiny of a lawyer or it's garbage.

DarmokJalad1701 4y ago
Regardless of whether you believe Elon, this has been shown for the Model 3 drivetrain before https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-miles-test/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-mil... And it's not that hard to believe given that it is a system with very few moving parts and no constant explosions happening in it during operation.
- josefx 4y ago
  > this has been shown for the Model 3 drivetrain Is there anything more than a picture released by Tesla to that article? I would have expected test results or at least some data on how it holds up.
- daguava 4y ago
  - nelsonic 4y ago
- BoorishBears 4y ago
  I can't tell if this is satire... Anyone who's visited TSMC can tell you drive unit failures have been happening before 100k miles let alone a entire million. People have had back to back drive unit failures on new cars. I recall a MS owner getting the run around about an impending DU failure (which manifests as a whine under acceleration) as their warranty was about to expire, only to have it fail out of warranty. Now people are trying to DIY DU whine on cars that haven't even made it to 100k. Running a DU in a simulated 1 million mile test is nowhere near the same as actually lasting 1 million miles in the real world over as many years as that would take.
  - oxplot 4y ago
    The only thing that matters is the percentage of those failures before the 1mil miles. And that'll be a while. If Teslas had nearly any concerningly significant number of drivetrain failures, nobody would buy them and they've been around long enough for people to catch up. I did plenty of research before buying mine and I follow Tesla quite closely. Haven't heard any concerns in this regard. I expect Tesla to only get better for the time being.
    - BoorishBears 4y ago
      > The only thing that matters is the percentage of those failures before the 1mil miles. And that'll be a while. Please tell that to someone dealing with back to back DU replacements within a couple of years owning their cars. Or people being told to scrap their cars by Tesla service advisors because even if they fix their DU something else will just break: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/out-of-warranty-drive-unit-failure-service-center-recommends-to-scrap-the-car.273103/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/out-of-warranty-driv... - All cars have reliability issues. We need to stop pretending like replacing one powerplant with another will change that. An entire generation of drive units are failing because of an issue the same boring issue that kills so many ICEs: Coolant getting where it's not supposed to because of a failed seal, causing lubricants to fail. If you want a car that will go a million miles today, a "boring" base model Lexus is probably a safer bet than a Model 3.
  - deleted 4y ago
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nelsonic 4y ago
- yanokwa 4y ago
  I don't have a dog in this fight, but just to answer the question. https://elonsbrokenpromises.com https://elonsbrokenpromises.com and https://elonmusk.today https://elonmusk.today have examples of promises Elon has made that have not come to pass.
  - nelsonic 4y ago
    Superb! Thank you! This is exactly what I was after. Reading now. Edit: The first one: “Short via long dated put options” … Is it not a conflict of interest for someone who is shorting Tesla to maintain an “elonmusklies.com” website? Or is the disclosure of their short position enough to excuse their bias? Continuing to read …
  - epgui 4y ago
    Do you realize that claims about how the future will unfold are speculative? Why is Elon held to such an impossibly high standard when he makes obviously-speculative projections about what he thinks will happen in the future? Everyone knows he's over-ambitious and over-optimistic about deadlines, but why are we framing that "failure to accurately predict the future" or "failure to estimate a correct timeline" as broken promises and lies? What if we held all of us engineers, tech managers, etc, to the same impossibly high standard? You may not have a dog in this fight, but these two websites are a little dishonest about how they frame things. Also there's a clear conflict of interest, because they're disclosing a short interest in the stock.
    - oxplot 4y ago
      > Why is Elon held to such an impossibly high standard when he makes obviously-speculative projections about what he thinks will happen in the future? It's because he actually makes these projections while all the other CEOs are tight lipped. Elon is also right on Twitter, loud and center. It takes rational thinking to understand that what he says are speculative projections.
oxplot 4y ago
> Elon's word is worth very little these days His words are worth fine. Articles and second hand mangled version of what he actually says is worth nothing - I agree. As far as this topic is concerned, demand for Tesla Semi is enough evidence.
- akiselev 4y ago
  > As far as this topic is concerned, demand for Tesla Semi is enough evidence. The Tesla Semi is the Tinker Bell of automotive.
- chronic94038 4y ago
  - oxplot 4y ago
    > Tesla is dead as a company. Oh one of you. Would be great if you spread this as far as you can and get the Tesla share prices to drop so I can buy them cheap. Cheerio ;)
    - inferiorhuman 4y ago
      So Tesla isn't offering incentives? https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/tesla-tsla-gives-3750-discount-for-model-3-y-in-the-us-this-month/ https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/tesla-tsla-gives-3750-discoun...
      - LanceJones 4y ago
        Yes. This incentive applies only to the US. Only for December. Only on certain variants of Model 3 and Y. All thanks to people unwilling to take delivery in December due to IRA kicking in on January 1, 2023.
        inferiorhuman 4y ago
        So basically the days of people wanting to pay a premium for Tesla are over?

Regardless of whether you believe Elon, this has been shown for the Model 3 drivetrain before https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-miles-test/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-mil... And it's not that hard to believe given that it is a system with very few moving parts and no constant explosions happening in it during operation.

josefx 4y ago
> this has been shown for the Model 3 drivetrain Is there anything more than a picture released by Tesla to that article? I would have expected test results or at least some data on how it holds up.
daguava 4y ago
- nelsonic 4y ago
BoorishBears 4y ago
I can't tell if this is satire... Anyone who's visited TSMC can tell you drive unit failures have been happening before 100k miles let alone a entire million. People have had back to back drive unit failures on new cars. I recall a MS owner getting the run around about an impending DU failure (which manifests as a whine under acceleration) as their warranty was about to expire, only to have it fail out of warranty. Now people are trying to DIY DU whine on cars that haven't even made it to 100k. Running a DU in a simulated 1 million mile test is nowhere near the same as actually lasting 1 million miles in the real world over as many years as that would take.
- oxplot 4y ago
  The only thing that matters is the percentage of those failures before the 1mil miles. And that'll be a while. If Teslas had nearly any concerningly significant number of drivetrain failures, nobody would buy them and they've been around long enough for people to catch up. I did plenty of research before buying mine and I follow Tesla quite closely. Haven't heard any concerns in this regard. I expect Tesla to only get better for the time being.
  - BoorishBears 4y ago
    > The only thing that matters is the percentage of those failures before the 1mil miles. And that'll be a while. Please tell that to someone dealing with back to back DU replacements within a couple of years owning their cars. Or people being told to scrap their cars by Tesla service advisors because even if they fix their DU something else will just break: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/out-of-warranty-drive-unit-failure-service-center-recommends-to-scrap-the-car.273103/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/out-of-warranty-driv... - All cars have reliability issues. We need to stop pretending like replacing one powerplant with another will change that. An entire generation of drive units are failing because of an issue the same boring issue that kills so many ICEs: Coolant getting where it's not supposed to because of a failed seal, causing lubricants to fail. If you want a car that will go a million miles today, a "boring" base model Lexus is probably a safer bet than a Model 3.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

nelsonic 4y ago

yanokwa 4y ago
I don't have a dog in this fight, but just to answer the question. https://elonsbrokenpromises.com https://elonsbrokenpromises.com and https://elonmusk.today https://elonmusk.today have examples of promises Elon has made that have not come to pass.
- nelsonic 4y ago
  Superb! Thank you! This is exactly what I was after. Reading now. Edit: The first one: “Short via long dated put options” … Is it not a conflict of interest for someone who is shorting Tesla to maintain an “elonmusklies.com” website? Or is the disclosure of their short position enough to excuse their bias? Continuing to read …
- epgui 4y ago
  Do you realize that claims about how the future will unfold are speculative? Why is Elon held to such an impossibly high standard when he makes obviously-speculative projections about what he thinks will happen in the future? Everyone knows he's over-ambitious and over-optimistic about deadlines, but why are we framing that "failure to accurately predict the future" or "failure to estimate a correct timeline" as broken promises and lies? What if we held all of us engineers, tech managers, etc, to the same impossibly high standard? You may not have a dog in this fight, but these two websites are a little dishonest about how they frame things. Also there's a clear conflict of interest, because they're disclosing a short interest in the stock.
  - oxplot 4y ago
    > Why is Elon held to such an impossibly high standard when he makes obviously-speculative projections about what he thinks will happen in the future? It's because he actually makes these projections while all the other CEOs are tight lipped. Elon is also right on Twitter, loud and center. It takes rational thinking to understand that what he says are speculative projections.

oxplot 4y ago

> Elon's word is worth very little these days His words are worth fine. Articles and second hand mangled version of what he actually says is worth nothing - I agree. As far as this topic is concerned, demand for Tesla Semi is enough evidence.

akiselev 4y ago
> As far as this topic is concerned, demand for Tesla Semi is enough evidence. The Tesla Semi is the Tinker Bell of automotive.
chronic94038 4y ago
- oxplot 4y ago
  > Tesla is dead as a company. Oh one of you. Would be great if you spread this as far as you can and get the Tesla share prices to drop so I can buy them cheap. Cheerio ;)
  - inferiorhuman 4y ago
    So Tesla isn't offering incentives? https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/tesla-tsla-gives-3750-discount-for-model-3-y-in-the-us-this-month/ https://electrek.co/2022/12/01/tesla-tsla-gives-3750-discoun...
    - LanceJones 4y ago
      Yes. This incentive applies only to the US. Only for December. Only on certain variants of Model 3 and Y. All thanks to people unwilling to take delivery in December due to IRA kicking in on January 1, 2023.
      - inferiorhuman 4y ago
        So basically the days of people wanting to pay a premium for Tesla are over?