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Even elon strangely dismissed that obvious cause when it was pointed out under his pinned tweet https://twitter.com/BillyM2k/status/1529125347148455937 https://

by natly 4y ago

Even elon strangely dismissed that obvious cause when it was pointed out under his pinned tweet https://twitter.com/BillyM2k/status/1529125347148455937 https://twitter.com/BillyM2k/status/1529125347148455937 (elons explanation doesn't make any sense).

bpodgursky 4y ago
These are fairly different arguments. Japan's working hours are traditionally brutal - 12 hours a day, 6-7 days a week. Plus mandatory "happy" hours. It's often a financially comfortable life; but there's 0 flexibility to find an employer that allows a 9-5 workday, even if you're willing to take a pay cut. Elon is saying that high-paid professionals in the US have fewer children than the lower-middle class, which is absolutely true. Doctors, lawyers, and engineers are far below replacement fertility.
- nonameiguess 4y ago
  That seems to be missing that many of those highly-paid professionals were not highly paid in their peak fertile years. Engineers maybe, but doctors and lawyers tend to spend many years in school and then interning. If you start having kids at 30, you'll usually end up with fewer total kids than if you had started at 20. The most highly paid engineers are likely those willing and able to relocate frequently, too, which brings its own challenges. Money is needed to feel secure enough to start a family, but so are stable living arrangements and social structures.
  - giantg2 4y ago
    Even if starting at 30, that doesn't explain it being < 2. There are medical interventions on both sides of the equation (birth controls and fertility treatments). Preferences are the main drivers in my opinion.
  - bpodgursky 4y ago
    Having known many people who went through medical school and residency, I'm confident almost none of them would have accelerated their family plans with more money. Medical residents who work 80 hour weeks simply have less than 0 time to start a family. (And in fact, of the very few who did, it is always when the husband was a resident and the wife stay-at-home or a different career. In these cases, the finances were not a huge constraint; if nothing else, it is extremely easy to take on cheap debt as a resident.) I can't speak as confidently to lawyers and interning, but I'd be surprised if the dynamic was different.
- kurthr 4y ago
  In my experience Japan's working hours haven't been 12hr or 6-7 days a week for more than a decade due to government regulation and cultural consensus (although commutes are still very long). China's 996 work culture was still close to this, but it has died in the last couple of years and has been replaced in pop culture with "laying flat" = tang ping 007... or even "bai lan".
- FooBarBizBazz 4y ago
  > Doctors, lawyers, and engineers are far below replacement fertility. If you really want a "fun" way to look at it, find an IQ vs. fertility rate chart. Only IQs of 80 and lower are above replacement.
  - prirun 4y ago
    Idiocracy: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/
  - bpodgursky 4y ago
    Obviously true, but I had a chat with Kolmogorov and he gave some tips on how to reframe it into a politically acceptable version.
willcipriano 4y ago
Ideology gets in the way of truth on this one. One side doesn't want to admit that a lot of poor people have a good bit of free time available to them, particularly those who receive social services. The other side doesn't want to admit that middle class and up folks have been working long hours at a cost to their personal lives and development, that isn't new, but now both mom and dad are doing it and households aren't really any better off. This results in poor people with the time to make and raise children, doing so and receiving government subsidies to provide for them. The problem is the government can't give you time or your youth back so the well off just stopped having kids.
- sbf501 4y ago
  You get the award for most subtle attempt at rephrasing the "welfare queen" myth I've heard in a few years.
  - doliveira 4y ago
    I mean, it wasn't that subtle, but yeah, subtle enough just for distraction. I don't know how the situation is in the USA, but in Brazil we have the myth of mothers having 10 children just to get more money for each child.
    - sbf501 4y ago
      Similar. It is very common to hear the right side of US politics claim poor minority women have multiple children just to get "free stuff" from the government, yet the same folks also want to make abortion illegal. Some people even claim the government will pay for your child if you are completely poor. The lies are astonishing, but the racism is necessary for their populist political message to work.
      - giantg2 4y ago
        "Some people even claim the government will pay for your child if you are completely poor." Is this not mostly true? It seems government does pick up the tab for impoverished children. School, school lunch, Medicaid, SNAP/WIC, and easier to get housing as a woman with kids (both through charities and HUD housing and grants).
stjohnswarts 4y ago
Well more and more lately he has just glommed onto some popular maga/republican talking point and not thought through about how ignorant/fake they usually are.

by natly 4y ago

bpodgursky 4y ago

These are fairly different arguments. Japan's working hours are traditionally brutal - 12 hours a day, 6-7 days a week. Plus mandatory "happy" hours. It's often a financially comfortable life; but there's 0 flexibility to find an employer that allows a 9-5 workday, even if you're willing to take a pay cut. Elon is saying that high-paid professionals in the US have fewer children than the lower-middle class, which is absolutely true. Doctors, lawyers, and engineers are far below replacement fertility.

nonameiguess 4y ago
That seems to be missing that many of those highly-paid professionals were not highly paid in their peak fertile years. Engineers maybe, but doctors and lawyers tend to spend many years in school and then interning. If you start having kids at 30, you'll usually end up with fewer total kids than if you had started at 20. The most highly paid engineers are likely those willing and able to relocate frequently, too, which brings its own challenges. Money is needed to feel secure enough to start a family, but so are stable living arrangements and social structures.
- giantg2 4y ago
  Even if starting at 30, that doesn't explain it being < 2. There are medical interventions on both sides of the equation (birth controls and fertility treatments). Preferences are the main drivers in my opinion.
- bpodgursky 4y ago
  Having known many people who went through medical school and residency, I'm confident almost none of them would have accelerated their family plans with more money. Medical residents who work 80 hour weeks simply have less than 0 time to start a family. (And in fact, of the very few who did, it is always when the husband was a resident and the wife stay-at-home or a different career. In these cases, the finances were not a huge constraint; if nothing else, it is extremely easy to take on cheap debt as a resident.) I can't speak as confidently to lawyers and interning, but I'd be surprised if the dynamic was different.
kurthr 4y ago
In my experience Japan's working hours haven't been 12hr or 6-7 days a week for more than a decade due to government regulation and cultural consensus (although commutes are still very long). China's 996 work culture was still close to this, but it has died in the last couple of years and has been replaced in pop culture with "laying flat" = tang ping 007... or even "bai lan".
FooBarBizBazz 4y ago
> Doctors, lawyers, and engineers are far below replacement fertility. If you really want a "fun" way to look at it, find an IQ vs. fertility rate chart. Only IQs of 80 and lower are above replacement.
- prirun 4y ago
  Idiocracy: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/
- bpodgursky 4y ago
  Obviously true, but I had a chat with Kolmogorov and he gave some tips on how to reframe it into a politically acceptable version.

willcipriano 4y ago

Ideology gets in the way of truth on this one. One side doesn't want to admit that a lot of poor people have a good bit of free time available to them, particularly those who receive social services. The other side doesn't want to admit that middle class and up folks have been working long hours at a cost to their personal lives and development, that isn't new, but now both mom and dad are doing it and households aren't really any better off. This results in poor people with the time to make and raise children, doing so and receiving government subsidies to provide for them. The problem is the government can't give you time or your youth back so the well off just stopped having kids.

sbf501 4y ago
You get the award for most subtle attempt at rephrasing the "welfare queen" myth I've heard in a few years.
- doliveira 4y ago
  I mean, it wasn't that subtle, but yeah, subtle enough just for distraction. I don't know how the situation is in the USA, but in Brazil we have the myth of mothers having 10 children just to get more money for each child.
  - sbf501 4y ago
    Similar. It is very common to hear the right side of US politics claim poor minority women have multiple children just to get "free stuff" from the government, yet the same folks also want to make abortion illegal. Some people even claim the government will pay for your child if you are completely poor. The lies are astonishing, but the racism is necessary for their populist political message to work.
    - giantg2 4y ago
      "Some people even claim the government will pay for your child if you are completely poor." Is this not mostly true? It seems government does pick up the tab for impoverished children. School, school lunch, Medicaid, SNAP/WIC, and easier to get housing as a woman with kids (both through charities and HUD housing and grants).

stjohnswarts 4y ago

Well more and more lately he has just glommed onto some popular maga/republican talking point and not thought through about how ignorant/fake they usually are.