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> Overall, I'd say relax a bit. You're still in a good situation. Recessions are hard for many, but software engineers were among the best off during the last o

> Overall, I'd say relax a bit. You're still in a good situation. Recessions are hard for many, but software engineers were among the best off during the last one and I expect will be this time also. The demand for software engineers was driven partly by zombie app and saas companies all competing for "top talent", dependent entirely on free cash but without sustainable business models. On top of that, the "demand" narrative led to an influx of new software engineers that will mature over the next 1-3 years. These two factors I believe put our industry at risk if there's a recession.

sulam 4y ago
There are risks, yes, but fundamentally we are still an industry that has a lot of upside, vs many others. In a recession many businesses will contract, but it's a rare large tech company that will do more than pause some forms of spending. Even when you hear that hiring is paused at the big tech companies, they will usually still be backfilling departures, and they won't be doing significant layoffs. The exceptions are companies with large service-based businesses that may or not qualify as tech companies based on your definition.
- DeathArrow 4y ago
  >The exceptions are companies with large service-based businesses that may or not qualify as tech companies based on your definition. Like Amazon and Netflix? And if companies are spending less for online ads, that can hit Google and Facebook, too.
  - kgermino 4y ago
    I think they were referring to companies like Accenture, IBM, or PwC. The "Professional Services" industry employs a ton of software developers and is fairly pro-cyclical.
  - WisNorCan 4y ago
    And all companies that focus on selling to other startups. Like Brex. They were the first to pop during the dot com bust.
  - sulam 4y ago
    I work at one of those two ad-supported businesses, and would be very surprised if there are large scale layoffs. And yes, as one of the responders noted, I meant the services companies. An IBM might do a large layoff, but I generally wouldn't put that in the same category as Amazon or Netflix. I've worked through three economic cycles now (at least I think we're seeing the end of the third) and while they haven't been great for everyone in the industry, we've been better off than most others. For instance, just to pick on one profession, I know way more lawyers who've become software engineers than vice versa.
eastbound 4y ago
At risk? We’ll just stop having overinflated salaries. The current situation is insane for employers: - Employees are not willing to put a little extra (paid extra, I mean - and we’re at the 35hrs week here), - Not willing to study afterwork to improve their career, - Not willing to work on legacy products where we pay them 40% more. - In the first 2 years, I can pay someone 35 -> 50 -> +10k bonus, and they’ll leave for a job at 65 going 75 with a tech stack that ticks all boxes. - You can teach them React + SpringBoot + Kubernetes, and they’ll still leave because company XYZ does AWS + Neo4j + AI… while still not fixing spelling mistakes in the UI and still in the habit of downloading and entire DB tables and filter them in the Java side, and seeing no problem asking for a microservices architecture. This developer market is batshit crazy and isn’t tight enough to make people want to serve the needs of customers. “Do something hard and get a house in exchange” isn’t a persuasive argument today, they’ll get rich anyway. Instead, they serve their resume, which I perfectly respect and understand, it needs to be done too, but at one point, it’s a disconnect between customers, employers and developers. A crisis is unfortunate but I can’t wait for it.
- ornornor 4y ago
  > - Employees are not willing to put a little extra (and we’re at the 35hrs week here), > - Not willing to study afterwork to improve their career, Some of your points make sense but these two…
  - hbbio 4y ago
    Indeed, they should study at work.
    - ornornor 4y ago
      Heresy!
      - aloisdg 4y ago
        Home time is personal time. Here I deal with family, chores and self-connection. If you want me to learn stuff and be better and my job you will have to give me time, company time, for that. We are not machine. In France it is mandatory for the company to give time for training. Thanks unions. https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/id/LEGISCTA000006189881/ https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/id/LEGISCTA000006189881...
Abishek_Muthian 4y ago
>The demand for software engineers was driven partly by zombie app and saas companies all competing for "top talent", dependent entirely on free cash but without sustainable business models. Now that the cash is drying up, Startups which didn't solve any real problem couldn't bruteforce their growth anymore. Perhaps this is good for the entire ecosystem.
- scollet 4y ago
  There we go. This is the comment I was going to make, but you've done the idea justice.

sulam 4y ago

There are risks, yes, but fundamentally we are still an industry that has a lot of upside, vs many others. In a recession many businesses will contract, but it's a rare large tech company that will do more than pause some forms of spending. Even when you hear that hiring is paused at the big tech companies, they will usually still be backfilling departures, and they won't be doing significant layoffs. The exceptions are companies with large service-based businesses that may or not qualify as tech companies based on your definition.

DeathArrow 4y ago
>The exceptions are companies with large service-based businesses that may or not qualify as tech companies based on your definition. Like Amazon and Netflix? And if companies are spending less for online ads, that can hit Google and Facebook, too.
- kgermino 4y ago
  I think they were referring to companies like Accenture, IBM, or PwC. The "Professional Services" industry employs a ton of software developers and is fairly pro-cyclical.
- WisNorCan 4y ago
  And all companies that focus on selling to other startups. Like Brex. They were the first to pop during the dot com bust.
- sulam 4y ago
  I work at one of those two ad-supported businesses, and would be very surprised if there are large scale layoffs. And yes, as one of the responders noted, I meant the services companies. An IBM might do a large layoff, but I generally wouldn't put that in the same category as Amazon or Netflix. I've worked through three economic cycles now (at least I think we're seeing the end of the third) and while they haven't been great for everyone in the industry, we've been better off than most others. For instance, just to pick on one profession, I know way more lawyers who've become software engineers than vice versa.

eastbound 4y ago

At risk? We’ll just stop having overinflated salaries. The current situation is insane for employers: - Employees are not willing to put a little extra (paid extra, I mean - and we’re at the 35hrs week here), - Not willing to study afterwork to improve their career, - Not willing to work on legacy products where we pay them 40% more. - In the first 2 years, I can pay someone 35 -> 50 -> +10k bonus, and they’ll leave for a job at 65 going 75 with a tech stack that ticks all boxes. - You can teach them React + SpringBoot + Kubernetes, and they’ll still leave because company XYZ does AWS + Neo4j + AI… while still not fixing spelling mistakes in the UI and still in the habit of downloading and entire DB tables and filter them in the Java side, and seeing no problem asking for a microservices architecture. This developer market is batshit crazy and isn’t tight enough to make people want to serve the needs of customers. “Do something hard and get a house in exchange” isn’t a persuasive argument today, they’ll get rich anyway. Instead, they serve their resume, which I perfectly respect and understand, it needs to be done too, but at one point, it’s a disconnect between customers, employers and developers. A crisis is unfortunate but I can’t wait for it.

ornornor 4y ago
> - Employees are not willing to put a little extra (and we’re at the 35hrs week here), > - Not willing to study afterwork to improve their career, Some of your points make sense but these two…
- hbbio 4y ago
  Indeed, they should study at work.
  - ornornor 4y ago
    Heresy!
    - aloisdg 4y ago
      Home time is personal time. Here I deal with family, chores and self-connection. If you want me to learn stuff and be better and my job you will have to give me time, company time, for that. We are not machine. In France it is mandatory for the company to give time for training. Thanks unions. https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/id/LEGISCTA000006189881/ https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/id/LEGISCTA000006189881...

Abishek_Muthian 4y ago

>The demand for software engineers was driven partly by zombie app and saas companies all competing for "top talent", dependent entirely on free cash but without sustainable business models. Now that the cash is drying up, Startups which didn't solve any real problem couldn't bruteforce their growth anymore. Perhaps this is good for the entire ecosystem.

scollet 4y ago
There we go. This is the comment I was going to make, but you've done the idea justice.