7 ms·

I am extremely bearish on this whole global situation, but given the gravity of the situation, we're going to see the world's best institutions and minds workin

I am extremely bearish on this whole global situation, but given the gravity of the situation, we're going to see the world's best institutions and minds working on vaccines and treatments with essentially unlimited funding and top priority. Even during our darkest times, we're going to see the most remarkable science and engineering capabilities exposed in the coming weeks and months, for the sake of humanity.

troughway 7y ago
I'm with you on this. One of the not-so-physical wonders of the world we have is a lot of scientific, capable minds paired with high technology and rapid feedback on their efforts. The timing, though it could have been better, is on our side. My one concern is once this whole thing is over there will be a long pause followed by a blame game. There are already conspiracies floating out there being pushed forward by officials in various countries.
- lasgsf 7y ago
  I agree. We are going to go through the depths of hell but once we get past it and yes we will get past it that it will see us having resolved this.
dmix 7y ago
Reading about Russia sending rockets to Venus in the 1960-70s [1], then later watching a documentary about the Viking program [2], was one of the things that cheered me up the most during this whole thing. Humans have done amazing things in the face of dire odds. Nothing brings them together like these sorts of challenges. Since then I've been reading a book called "The Rise and Fall of Dinosaurs" and there's been so many extinction events, yet life still bounced back each time stronger than before. Looking at life on that timescale, what humans managed to accomplish in such a short one doesn't get enough praise. We've only scratched the surface on how much better we could be as a species. I'm confident we'll be far better prepared for the next epidemic and at the very least hopefully China (and others like Vietnam) will eventually ban the wildlife trade for medicine as well, not just for food. Which is what early results by scientists are pointing to as the cause of this whole thing (Pangolins trafficked for Chinese medicine). Animal conservation plays an underrated role in epidemics, same with Ebola (monkeys) and SARS (bats). We don't need to be consuming any of this stuff. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlnM6kd3_n8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlnM6kd3_n8 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV_xPQrQEyc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV_xPQrQEyc
- bonestamp2 7y ago
  > we'll be far better prepared for the next epidemic I agree. Being in California, it's a standing recommendation to maintain extra supplies in case of impact from wildfire or earthquake. So, I thought I was pretty well prepared. I already stock and rotate extra water, toilet paper, n95 masks, canned food, etc. But, I discovered some holes in my preparedness that I will rectify when the stores are back to normal supply levels -- I will be even better prepared for the next state of emergency. I'm sure the preparedness will go wide and deep across many government and private organizations. At a minimum, I hope the CDC ensures there are plenty more ventilators ready for the next one.
  - ncallaway 7y ago
    "At a minimum, I hope the CDC ensures there are plenty more ventilators ready for the next one." My only thought here is that we don't know that "the next one" will require ventilators. While I'd certainly like to see our national stockpile of PPE and emergency equipment like ventilators improved, I'd like to see the CDC preparing to face a wider-set of the "next one". I think we should be looking at our manufacturing infrastructure and ability to rapidly ramp-up the production of any life-saving hospital equipment in the face of a sudden need. With a national stockpile that's strong enough to cover the ramp-up period.
    - yannis 7y ago
      Besides this, the world not just the US need standby health personnel in a similar fashion to armies. Soldiers do nothing unless needed, a "health workers" army can do the same.
      - jfk13 7y ago
        How much extra tax do you think people will be happy to pay -- forever, not just now while we have a pandemic on our hands -- to support this?
        7y ago
mytailorisrich 7y ago
> ... for the sake of humanity. Considering the actions of the US government in Germany, and most probably the actions of other governments, I'd say for the sake of national interests, not humanity. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though: When a vaccine is found I'm sure the government/company behind it will make available to the world for free...
- kathe-rine 7y ago
  Actions of governments != actions of the people
  - mytailorisrich 7y ago
    Governments and corporations are in control of this, not individuals.
    - adventured 7y ago
      Inside of governments and corporations are individuals making all of those decisions. There is a buck and it stops with an individual on a decision, or a couple of individuals at most. That's how a national emergency gets declared. The President decides to go forward with it. If California declares a state of emergency, it's the governor that has the final say: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/03/04/governor-newsom-declares-state-of-emergency-to-help-state-prepare-for-broader-spread-of-covid-19/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/03/04/governor-newsom-declares-s...
      - mytailorisrich 7y ago
        And we're back to my first comment...
- hans_castorp 7y ago
  > When a vaccine is found I'm sure the government/company behind it will make available to the world for free. I am pretty sure the U.S. government (or actually Trump) will not do that. He will make the world pay dearly for that.
fuckyah 7y ago
Why hello? This virus has a death rate of less than 0.2% in Germany. They have very good testing there. Every day 365k babies are born, humanity will be fine!
jariel 7y ago
I share your sentiment, this will be amazing and also a 'working together' time. But - time - is the issue. It's medical. Stuff takes a long time to develop a test, there are real ethical rules that won't get broken I think even now. 50 years ago, there would be either some brave volunteers who would be willing to get infected or some poor souls somewhere who would be unwittingly infected to see the results. No more of this. It's possible however the CCP may 'volunteer' some prisoners, or they may allow brave citizen volunteers. I can see that happening. (I can see brave volunteers coming from everywhere, but I don't see governments allowing such a program to go forward).
- dreen 7y ago
  I dont think thats a problem. At the very least there will be doctors who are infected and there is nothing to prevent them testing the vaccine on themselves.
  - jariel 7y ago
    We need people who do not have the disease to act as guinea pigs for vaccines and other therapies, not just people who already have it. Also, we need to test drugs and therapies that have excessive, even deadly consequences. Again, dilemma. This is a huge ethical dilemma. Up to a generation ago, drug companies would run trials in Africa, away from aggressive regulation. During the Manhattan project, the US Army would run squads of soldiers right through the aftermath of test nuclear explosions, literally to see 'the effect of radiation'. Many specialist jobs entailed levels of riks unthinkable today. Remember, this is in an era where cars didn't have seat-belts. In 2020, things have changed, but it's possible totalitarian regimes will find 'volunteers'. China has been engaging in harvesting the organs of political prisoners, at scale [1]. If they're willing to put people in prison for their ethnicity, and then 'have them die' so that a rich person can get a kidney through back channels ... then absolutely they can do medical trials on these people, it may not even need to be publicized. [1] https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/china-credibly-accused-of-organ-harvesting-atrocity/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/china-credibly-accused...
    - 7y ago
cpv 7y ago
Imagine if one day we find that a comet is headed directly to us. That would test and push humanity at its extremes.
- QuotedForTruth 7y ago
  How certain would the experts have to be to get such coordinated action? With close approaches, it seems (as a layman) that there are always pretty large ranges of just how close they will be. I dont think you'd know "a comet is headed directly at us" until way too late. Instead you'd get some warning that there is a 10% chance or something. Over time that would go up to a near certainty. Maybe I'm pessimistic, but I would predict something more similar to climate change with deniers and paralysis.
- futureproofd 7y ago
  This remark reminds me of the book, "Seveneves" by Neal Stephenson. He plays with a similar 'what if?' doomsday scenario. Around 80% of the book revolves around testing and pushing humanity at it's extremes.
alfiedotwtf 7y ago
> we're going to see the world's best institutions and minds working on vaccines and treatments with essentially unlimited funding and top priority. Trump was caught out trying to buy a CureVac, who are working on a vaccine, to corner the market and make it only available to America https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-curevac-vaccine-trump-rights/2020/03/15/8d684c68-6702-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-coronavi... Will we see a vaccine? Maybe. At pumped up costs? Most definitely
- CWuestefeld 7y ago
  I think it's worth noting that the corporation is trying to do the right thing, even as pushed by the US government to act unethically. Don't always expect that corporations are evil, or that governments will protect us from that.
adamsea 7y ago
What would be really, really nice is if after the crisis passes the world's best institutions and minds continue to get a significant amount of funding to apply those remarkable science and engineering capabilities for the sake of humanity. IMHO that is the real issue. We didn't need to be in this crisis in the first place : /.
- epicide 7y ago
  I can’t find the source I saw the other day, but the CDC ran out of a good chunk of its budget September 2019. Right before all this started. We, especially the US, keep treating CDC like they’re responsible for fixing diseases after they spread when their focus is prevention. This has been happening repeatedly for at least a couple decades. Every time, it gets worse because we treat disease as a solved problem. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-funding-pandemics/552224/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-fundi...
sharken 7y ago
Darkest indeed, if you are more than 70 years or have other illnesses then you take every precaution not to get infected. The rest of the population pray that the Corona quarantine will be scaled back as soon as possible, so we don't have a financial ruin to deal with the next decade or more.
stjohnswarts 7y ago
The problem is the virus will already have done it's damage by the time the vaccine comes out. Mayhaps it will be useful for the next pandemic that comes out of Wuhan's wet markets.

troughway 7y ago

I'm with you on this. One of the not-so-physical wonders of the world we have is a lot of scientific, capable minds paired with high technology and rapid feedback on their efforts. The timing, though it could have been better, is on our side. My one concern is once this whole thing is over there will be a long pause followed by a blame game. There are already conspiracies floating out there being pushed forward by officials in various countries.

lasgsf 7y ago
I agree. We are going to go through the depths of hell but once we get past it and yes we will get past it that it will see us having resolved this.

dmix 7y ago

Reading about Russia sending rockets to Venus in the 1960-70s [1], then later watching a documentary about the Viking program [2], was one of the things that cheered me up the most during this whole thing. Humans have done amazing things in the face of dire odds. Nothing brings them together like these sorts of challenges. Since then I've been reading a book called "The Rise and Fall of Dinosaurs" and there's been so many extinction events, yet life still bounced back each time stronger than before. Looking at life on that timescale, what humans managed to accomplish in such a short one doesn't get enough praise. We've only scratched the surface on how much better we could be as a species. I'm confident we'll be far better prepared for the next epidemic and at the very least hopefully China (and others like Vietnam) will eventually ban the wildlife trade for medicine as well, not just for food. Which is what early results by scientists are pointing to as the cause of this whole thing (Pangolins trafficked for Chinese medicine). Animal conservation plays an underrated role in epidemics, same with Ebola (monkeys) and SARS (bats). We don't need to be consuming any of this stuff. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlnM6kd3_n8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlnM6kd3_n8 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV_xPQrQEyc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV_xPQrQEyc

bonestamp2 7y ago
> we'll be far better prepared for the next epidemic I agree. Being in California, it's a standing recommendation to maintain extra supplies in case of impact from wildfire or earthquake. So, I thought I was pretty well prepared. I already stock and rotate extra water, toilet paper, n95 masks, canned food, etc. But, I discovered some holes in my preparedness that I will rectify when the stores are back to normal supply levels -- I will be even better prepared for the next state of emergency. I'm sure the preparedness will go wide and deep across many government and private organizations. At a minimum, I hope the CDC ensures there are plenty more ventilators ready for the next one.
- ncallaway 7y ago
  "At a minimum, I hope the CDC ensures there are plenty more ventilators ready for the next one." My only thought here is that we don't know that "the next one" will require ventilators. While I'd certainly like to see our national stockpile of PPE and emergency equipment like ventilators improved, I'd like to see the CDC preparing to face a wider-set of the "next one". I think we should be looking at our manufacturing infrastructure and ability to rapidly ramp-up the production of any life-saving hospital equipment in the face of a sudden need. With a national stockpile that's strong enough to cover the ramp-up period.
  - yannis 7y ago
    Besides this, the world not just the US need standby health personnel in a similar fashion to armies. Soldiers do nothing unless needed, a "health workers" army can do the same.
    - jfk13 7y ago
      How much extra tax do you think people will be happy to pay -- forever, not just now while we have a pandemic on our hands -- to support this?
      - 7y ago

mytailorisrich 7y ago

> ... for the sake of humanity. Considering the actions of the US government in Germany, and most probably the actions of other governments, I'd say for the sake of national interests, not humanity. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though: When a vaccine is found I'm sure the government/company behind it will make available to the world for free...

kathe-rine 7y ago
Actions of governments != actions of the people
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  Governments and corporations are in control of this, not individuals.
  - adventured 7y ago
    Inside of governments and corporations are individuals making all of those decisions. There is a buck and it stops with an individual on a decision, or a couple of individuals at most. That's how a national emergency gets declared. The President decides to go forward with it. If California declares a state of emergency, it's the governor that has the final say: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/03/04/governor-newsom-declares-state-of-emergency-to-help-state-prepare-for-broader-spread-of-covid-19/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/03/04/governor-newsom-declares-s...
    - mytailorisrich 7y ago
      And we're back to my first comment...
hans_castorp 7y ago
> When a vaccine is found I'm sure the government/company behind it will make available to the world for free. I am pretty sure the U.S. government (or actually Trump) will not do that. He will make the world pay dearly for that.

fuckyah 7y ago

Why hello? This virus has a death rate of less than 0.2% in Germany. They have very good testing there. Every day 365k babies are born, humanity will be fine!

jariel 7y ago

I share your sentiment, this will be amazing and also a 'working together' time. But - time - is the issue. It's medical. Stuff takes a long time to develop a test, there are real ethical rules that won't get broken I think even now. 50 years ago, there would be either some brave volunteers who would be willing to get infected or some poor souls somewhere who would be unwittingly infected to see the results. No more of this. It's possible however the CCP may 'volunteer' some prisoners, or they may allow brave citizen volunteers. I can see that happening. (I can see brave volunteers coming from everywhere, but I don't see governments allowing such a program to go forward).

dreen 7y ago
I dont think thats a problem. At the very least there will be doctors who are infected and there is nothing to prevent them testing the vaccine on themselves.
- jariel 7y ago
  We need people who do not have the disease to act as guinea pigs for vaccines and other therapies, not just people who already have it. Also, we need to test drugs and therapies that have excessive, even deadly consequences. Again, dilemma. This is a huge ethical dilemma. Up to a generation ago, drug companies would run trials in Africa, away from aggressive regulation. During the Manhattan project, the US Army would run squads of soldiers right through the aftermath of test nuclear explosions, literally to see 'the effect of radiation'. Many specialist jobs entailed levels of riks unthinkable today. Remember, this is in an era where cars didn't have seat-belts. In 2020, things have changed, but it's possible totalitarian regimes will find 'volunteers'. China has been engaging in harvesting the organs of political prisoners, at scale [1]. If they're willing to put people in prison for their ethnicity, and then 'have them die' so that a rich person can get a kidney through back channels ... then absolutely they can do medical trials on these people, it may not even need to be publicized. [1] https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/china-credibly-accused-of-organ-harvesting-atrocity/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/china-credibly-accused...
  - 7y ago

cpv 7y ago

Imagine if one day we find that a comet is headed directly to us. That would test and push humanity at its extremes.

QuotedForTruth 7y ago
How certain would the experts have to be to get such coordinated action? With close approaches, it seems (as a layman) that there are always pretty large ranges of just how close they will be. I dont think you'd know "a comet is headed directly at us" until way too late. Instead you'd get some warning that there is a 10% chance or something. Over time that would go up to a near certainty. Maybe I'm pessimistic, but I would predict something more similar to climate change with deniers and paralysis.
futureproofd 7y ago
This remark reminds me of the book, "Seveneves" by Neal Stephenson. He plays with a similar 'what if?' doomsday scenario. Around 80% of the book revolves around testing and pushing humanity at it's extremes.

alfiedotwtf 7y ago

> we're going to see the world's best institutions and minds working on vaccines and treatments with essentially unlimited funding and top priority. Trump was caught out trying to buy a CureVac, who are working on a vaccine, to corner the market and make it only available to America https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-curevac-vaccine-trump-rights/2020/03/15/8d684c68-6702-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-coronavi... Will we see a vaccine? Maybe. At pumped up costs? Most definitely

CWuestefeld 7y ago
I think it's worth noting that the corporation is trying to do the right thing, even as pushed by the US government to act unethically. Don't always expect that corporations are evil, or that governments will protect us from that.

adamsea 7y ago

What would be really, really nice is if after the crisis passes the world's best institutions and minds continue to get a significant amount of funding to apply those remarkable science and engineering capabilities for the sake of humanity. IMHO that is the real issue. We didn't need to be in this crisis in the first place : /.

epicide 7y ago
I can’t find the source I saw the other day, but the CDC ran out of a good chunk of its budget September 2019. Right before all this started. We, especially the US, keep treating CDC like they’re responsible for fixing diseases after they spread when their focus is prevention. This has been happening repeatedly for at least a couple decades. Every time, it gets worse because we treat disease as a solved problem. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-funding-pandemics/552224/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/02/cdc-fundi...

sharken 7y ago

Darkest indeed, if you are more than 70 years or have other illnesses then you take every precaution not to get infected. The rest of the population pray that the Corona quarantine will be scaled back as soon as possible, so we don't have a financial ruin to deal with the next decade or more.

stjohnswarts 7y ago

The problem is the virus will already have done it's damage by the time the vaccine comes out. Mayhaps it will be useful for the next pandemic that comes out of Wuhan's wet markets.