6 ms·

Apparently it’s no longer mitigation, now adaptation. The desire to avoid nihilism at point is tough. I’m pushing 40 and I hope I get 25 more years, family kids

by kjar 7y ago

Apparently it’s no longer mitigation, now adaptation. The desire to avoid nihilism at point is tough. I’m pushing 40 and I hope I get 25 more years, family kids are in for it.:(

eloff 7y ago
I see comments like this all the time, but it doesn't happen that fast. You won't notice a big difference in your lifetime, and neither will your children, unless maybe they live in a very low area by the coast. This plays out over hundreds of years. It's still a serious problem and we need to address it, but I keep seeing emotional reactions that ignore the science and the current predictions.
- tempsy 7y ago
  Major US cities will see temp increases of 4-6 degrees in less than 30-40 years. That is not "hundreds of years". https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-change-timeline-st-louis-san-francisco-houston https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-change-timeline-st-l...
- realusername 7y ago
  > I see comments like this all the time, but it doesn't happen that fast. You won't notice a big difference in your lifetime, and neither will your children I do already, the weather is much worse than when I was a kid, much drier and the heat waves are harsher.
  - Mikeb85 7y ago
    And it's -10 degrees C with half a foot of snow where I live at this exact moment, does that cancel out your anecdote?
    - defterGoose 7y ago
      No. No it really doesn't.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - aplummer 7y ago
      That’s actually a confirming anecdote FYI, the occurrence of more extreme weather events in both directions
    - occam65 7y ago
      If that's unusual for you, it actually helps prove his point...
    - LeoPanthera 7y ago
      I think perhaps you ought to realize how childish the "it's cold outside so global warming is a myth" argument sounds. It makes you sound willfully ignorant, which I'm sure isn't what you intended.
      - Mikeb85 7y ago
        I literally responded to a thread where someone said the world would end in 25 years, someone had a more measured response, then someone used the warm weather where they live as proof of impending disaster. Think about what I responded to.
        realusername 7y ago
        I'm not talking about current weather but climate in general, your answer is missing the point.
      - Enginerrrd 7y ago
        No it's not, but it's completely symmetric to the anecdote they were replying to, which was in fact the point. We've got 6 replies so far saying mikeb85's comment is silly, but only one saying that the comment he was replying to was silly, by EXACTLY the same arguments.
        hailk 7y ago
        It's quite evident that it's agenda based rationalisation. It's fine as long as we're spreading misinformation or framing data in a manner that furthers what we think the world should do. Rest of the type of misinformation and framing are dumb and pernicious of-course and need to be vilified.
        dTal 7y ago
        It's not symmetric at all! Describing the current weather is not at all the same as describing an observed long-term trend, with associated ecological disruption.
    - throwaheyy 7y ago
      You’re confusing “weather” with “climate”, that’s a rookie mistake
    - c0nducktr 7y ago
      You're smarter than this, Mike.
  - eloff 7y ago
    That's a small difference.
    - realusername 7y ago
      Not really, there's already big parts of the forest dying because of that and it's very visible from the outside.
- milofeynman 7y ago
  There's been a difference in the last 15 years... Look at the ocean currents. Look at the hurricanes stalling. That didn't use to happen. Look at tornado alley moving west. Look at the mass migration out of Siberia.[0] If you haven't noticed anything you aren't paying attention, or you're a gas company shill spreading misinformation. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climat...
  - sephlietz 7y ago
    "tornado alley moving east", fyi.
  - weberc2 7y ago
    The parent was referring to the OP’s doomsday scenarios (“kids are in for it”).
  - eloff 7y ago
    I didn't say nothing is happening, I said it's not the end of the world. The effects so far are small compared to the direct damage caused by the air pollution itself, which kills over a million people a year. I don't expect that will change in my lifetime. The predictions are not so dire that it is likely to take a million lives a year. Over a period of several hundred years, it's a lot harder to say. At no point is it likely to be the end of civilization. But we could get there if we're stupid enough to keep this up for a few centuries more.
    - ageofwant 7y ago
      This worldview is hyper human-centric. There are ~7735776725 people alive now. A million less is 7734776725. To keep this population alive billions of other lives are sacrificed. Yes humans and human civilization will be less affected in the short term, perhaps, or at least those that matter: i.e european northern hemisphere types. Short to medium term biosphere collapse will absolutely impact human civilization, but that is way to late for most other species.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- mirimir 7y ago
  That's somewhat like the Aristotelean vs Galilean conceptions of gravity. That is, constant velocity vs constant acceleration. So arguably, change during the next ten years will look more like change during the last 50-100 years.
- Mediterraneo10 7y ago
  Europeans have already noticed a "big difference" in the influx of Syrian and Afghani refugees. That invigorated anti-immigration parties, but those parties also advocated for various policies that went beyond immigration. A few million people had a huge impact on politics overall. Now imagine the turmoil and political ramifications that could spring, even in the short term, from the flooding of Bangladesh and the migratiom of its people towards the global north.
  - eloff 7y ago
    None of which is predicted to happen this century...
    - remarkEon 7y ago
      Oh good, so we have time? Not sure what you're point is unless to say that this problem is on a long enough time horizon (where the survival rate for everyone drops to zero ...).
    - flukus 7y ago
      Bangladesh already suffers catastrophic floods and is already being exacerbated by human influences: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_Bangladesh#Coverage_of_inundation_and_deaths_in_major_floods,_1954-1998 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_Bangladesh#Coverage_... Small changes that we'll see well before the end of this century will have huge consequences. Don't be surprised if the country doesn't exist at all by the end of the century.
- tzs 7y ago
  > You won't notice a big difference in your lifetime, and neither will your children, unless maybe they live in a very low area by the coast. This plays out over hundreds of years. ...or they live in an area whose fresh water supply depends on current weather patterns or glacier levels. Even if they don't, the water shortages in such regions could lead to war, and I believe some such regions include nuclear powers. A nuclear war between, say, Pakistan and India over water allocation will probably have serious economic effects well outside just that region.
klyrs 7y ago
I wish I didn't have a child, for his sake. The climate makes things like "retirement" really hard to think about... it just hurts to think about his future
- falcolas 7y ago
  I don’t have a child, and as someone who makes money by selling my time, retirement is still really hard to think about. Until I have enough money to make money from my money, I don’t think that retirement is a realistic option. And I have enough debt from just living my life that finding that FU point where I have sufficient money is a long, long ways off. Even at my “top 10% of the US” salary.
- ALittleLight 7y ago
  That seems like a very dramatic overstatement. Climate change is a serious problem, but hardly past human ingenuity to deal with. It's not like your children will be in a hell world. It'll be warmer, more storms, challenges due to changing sea level and arable lands shifting etc. It won't be a cataclysm but will play out over decades and centuries. Your child, and your children's children will be fine.
  - rosege 7y ago
    I don't think anyone can guarantee that at this stage.

by kjar 7y ago

Apparently it’s no longer mitigation, now adaptation. The desire to avoid nihilism at point is tough. I’m pushing 40 and I hope I get 25 more years, family kids are in for it.:(

eloff 7y ago

I see comments like this all the time, but it doesn't happen that fast. You won't notice a big difference in your lifetime, and neither will your children, unless maybe they live in a very low area by the coast. This plays out over hundreds of years. It's still a serious problem and we need to address it, but I keep seeing emotional reactions that ignore the science and the current predictions.

tempsy 7y ago
Major US cities will see temp increases of 4-6 degrees in less than 30-40 years. That is not "hundreds of years". https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-change-timeline-st-louis-san-francisco-houston https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-change-timeline-st-l...
realusername 7y ago
> I see comments like this all the time, but it doesn't happen that fast. You won't notice a big difference in your lifetime, and neither will your children I do already, the weather is much worse than when I was a kid, much drier and the heat waves are harsher.
- Mikeb85 7y ago
  And it's -10 degrees C with half a foot of snow where I live at this exact moment, does that cancel out your anecdote?
  - defterGoose 7y ago
    No. No it really doesn't.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - aplummer 7y ago
    That’s actually a confirming anecdote FYI, the occurrence of more extreme weather events in both directions
  - occam65 7y ago
    If that's unusual for you, it actually helps prove his point...
  - LeoPanthera 7y ago
    I think perhaps you ought to realize how childish the "it's cold outside so global warming is a myth" argument sounds. It makes you sound willfully ignorant, which I'm sure isn't what you intended.
    - Mikeb85 7y ago
      I literally responded to a thread where someone said the world would end in 25 years, someone had a more measured response, then someone used the warm weather where they live as proof of impending disaster. Think about what I responded to.
      - realusername 7y ago
        I'm not talking about current weather but climate in general, your answer is missing the point.
    - Enginerrrd 7y ago
      No it's not, but it's completely symmetric to the anecdote they were replying to, which was in fact the point. We've got 6 replies so far saying mikeb85's comment is silly, but only one saying that the comment he was replying to was silly, by EXACTLY the same arguments.
      - hailk 7y ago
        It's quite evident that it's agenda based rationalisation. It's fine as long as we're spreading misinformation or framing data in a manner that furthers what we think the world should do. Rest of the type of misinformation and framing are dumb and pernicious of-course and need to be vilified.
      - dTal 7y ago
        It's not symmetric at all! Describing the current weather is not at all the same as describing an observed long-term trend, with associated ecological disruption.
  - throwaheyy 7y ago
    You’re confusing “weather” with “climate”, that’s a rookie mistake
  - c0nducktr 7y ago
    You're smarter than this, Mike.
- eloff 7y ago
  That's a small difference.
  - realusername 7y ago
    Not really, there's already big parts of the forest dying because of that and it's very visible from the outside.
milofeynman 7y ago
There's been a difference in the last 15 years... Look at the ocean currents. Look at the hurricanes stalling. That didn't use to happen. Look at tornado alley moving west. Look at the mass migration out of Siberia.[0] If you haven't noticed anything you aren't paying attention, or you're a gas company shill spreading misinformation. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climat...
- sephlietz 7y ago
  "tornado alley moving east", fyi.
- weberc2 7y ago
  The parent was referring to the OP’s doomsday scenarios (“kids are in for it”).
- eloff 7y ago
  I didn't say nothing is happening, I said it's not the end of the world. The effects so far are small compared to the direct damage caused by the air pollution itself, which kills over a million people a year. I don't expect that will change in my lifetime. The predictions are not so dire that it is likely to take a million lives a year. Over a period of several hundred years, it's a lot harder to say. At no point is it likely to be the end of civilization. But we could get there if we're stupid enough to keep this up for a few centuries more.
  - ageofwant 7y ago
    This worldview is hyper human-centric. There are ~7735776725 people alive now. A million less is 7734776725. To keep this population alive billions of other lives are sacrificed. Yes humans and human civilization will be less affected in the short term, perhaps, or at least those that matter: i.e european northern hemisphere types. Short to medium term biosphere collapse will absolutely impact human civilization, but that is way to late for most other species.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
mirimir 7y ago
That's somewhat like the Aristotelean vs Galilean conceptions of gravity. That is, constant velocity vs constant acceleration. So arguably, change during the next ten years will look more like change during the last 50-100 years.
Mediterraneo10 7y ago
Europeans have already noticed a "big difference" in the influx of Syrian and Afghani refugees. That invigorated anti-immigration parties, but those parties also advocated for various policies that went beyond immigration. A few million people had a huge impact on politics overall. Now imagine the turmoil and political ramifications that could spring, even in the short term, from the flooding of Bangladesh and the migratiom of its people towards the global north.
- eloff 7y ago
  None of which is predicted to happen this century...
  - remarkEon 7y ago
    Oh good, so we have time? Not sure what you're point is unless to say that this problem is on a long enough time horizon (where the survival rate for everyone drops to zero ...).
  - flukus 7y ago
    Bangladesh already suffers catastrophic floods and is already being exacerbated by human influences: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_Bangladesh#Coverage_of_inundation_and_deaths_in_major_floods,_1954-1998 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_Bangladesh#Coverage_... Small changes that we'll see well before the end of this century will have huge consequences. Don't be surprised if the country doesn't exist at all by the end of the century.
tzs 7y ago
> You won't notice a big difference in your lifetime, and neither will your children, unless maybe they live in a very low area by the coast. This plays out over hundreds of years. ...or they live in an area whose fresh water supply depends on current weather patterns or glacier levels. Even if they don't, the water shortages in such regions could lead to war, and I believe some such regions include nuclear powers. A nuclear war between, say, Pakistan and India over water allocation will probably have serious economic effects well outside just that region.

klyrs 7y ago

I wish I didn't have a child, for his sake. The climate makes things like "retirement" really hard to think about... it just hurts to think about his future

falcolas 7y ago
I don’t have a child, and as someone who makes money by selling my time, retirement is still really hard to think about. Until I have enough money to make money from my money, I don’t think that retirement is a realistic option. And I have enough debt from just living my life that finding that FU point where I have sufficient money is a long, long ways off. Even at my “top 10% of the US” salary.
ALittleLight 7y ago
That seems like a very dramatic overstatement. Climate change is a serious problem, but hardly past human ingenuity to deal with. It's not like your children will be in a hell world. It'll be warmer, more storms, challenges due to changing sea level and arable lands shifting etc. It won't be a cataclysm but will play out over decades and centuries. Your child, and your children's children will be fine.
- rosege 7y ago
  I don't think anyone can guarantee that at this stage.