tskj

5 ms·

1.
by tskj 2mo ago
I agree it does seem pretty plausible as some kind of iterated / timeless theory divorced from reality, but especially the assumption that time is irrelevant to the buyer seems completely fanciful. I am usually all for theories that ma
2.
by tskj 2mo ago
I'm curious if they're keeping up mostly due to distillation or how that works. Does anyone outside China know?
3.
by tskj 2mo ago
Yeah I guess it's fine to demand the situation actually conform to the assumptions of the theory, but these assumptions are so extreme they have literally never held for any situation, and they never will.
4.
by tskj 2mo ago
But this conjecture predicts that Steam prices will drop immediately to their final low price. So Steam is actually also a counterexample.
5.
by tskj 2mo ago
Idk the obvious answer seems to be that buying now vs buying later isn't the same? Seems like a preposterous assumption; or rather an assumption that obviously never holds for any market ever so this theory is unfalsifiable by empiri
6.
by tskj 2mo ago
I think basically economists aren't that interested in looking at real world, messy data.
7.
by tskj 3mo ago
First of all, yes cutting developers to fund AI spend budgets, is the entire operating idea behind these AI companies; and most companies would love doing that. I'm not saying this is a good thing, my heading is on the chopping block l
8.
by tskj 3mo ago
No, but if you'd actually read what I wrote, you'd see that what I said (that Dario said) was: if you consider each model as its own company, they've all been individually profitable. However, they keep re-investing that (and
9.
by tskj 3mo ago
Unfortunately most of society and the economy is built on the foundational assumption of a growing (or at least stable) population. There will be some extremely tough challenges to solve with an actively declining population.
10.
by tskj 3mo ago
Interestingly Wind Waker's art style was its main detractor among critics when it was released, which is wild and incomprehensible to me now. One of my favorite games of all time.
11.
by tskj 3mo ago
I don't know man, people basically aren't having sex already. The fertility rate is way below replacement in all modernized countries, half of gen Z has never had sex at all, contraception is free, people struggle to get pregnant
12.
by tskj 3mo ago
Thanks, that's an interesting analysis. I'm not a Christian, but I definitely get the sense that we're playing with an extreme danger here, and that we're not being sufficiently humble / cautious / in awe of th
13.
by tskj 3mo ago
Well that's the point about unknown unknowns though, we actually have no idea what the probability is. But we do know it's not low, that's the only unlikely scenario. We only know it's a very complicated system with many
14.
by tskj 3mo ago
I think the case for this is pretty strong actually. Last year my company was maybe willing to pay $100 a month to Anthropic (per developer). Today we're all on the $300 plan without any hesitation. If Fable ever becomes available as t
15.
by tskj 3mo ago
Well yeah obviously they have to stop reinvesting more than they make at some point to become profitable. To be clear, I think what Dario was saying was that if you consider each model training + deployment as a company , meaning all expen
16.
by tskj 3mo ago
I guess I'll chime in as someone who thinks LLMs will be earth shattering, and specifically don't think it's a net positive for anyone but those whose power will be consolidated.
17.
by tskj 3mo ago
This seems distantly impossible right now, but for this reason, I predict that any species that survives this kind of "great filter" effect of accidentally messing up their genome long term, will develop a strong taboo against fer
18.
by tskj 3mo ago
I think this is decisively the wrong way to think about it. Yes, layering hypotheticals like that means that any one scenario is extremely unlikely to be the thing that gets you, but that doesn't mean the shape of the problem is wrong.
19.
by tskj 3mo ago
Why is it a designer's dream to hijack and control my scrolling experience? The scroll they've implemented is slow to respond, and has a weirdly low capped max speed. I don't understand why that's what a designer dreams
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by tskj 3mo ago
You didn't really have to use it more than a day honestly to tell what kind of shocking paradigm change it was. Man do I miss it.
21.
by tskj 3mo ago
Dario has publicly claimed each model has been profitable, even accounting for its training costs; it's just that each new model is exponentially more expensive to train than the last, so the income lags and it looks like the company i
22.
by tskj 3mo ago
You might like Casey Muratori's "The Big OOPs" talk about this, if you haven't seen it yet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wo84LFzx5nI It's my favorite deep dive into the subject, it's super t
23.
by tskj 4mo ago
I'm glad you like it. I feel validated not being the only one!
24.
Show HN: Jørnal, a journaling app where the page is always blank(jornal.ink)
4 points by tskj 4mo ago|2 comments
25.
by tskj 4mo ago
I believe laws were broken, even though no one contested it with the statute of limitation.
26.
by tskj 4mo ago
Saying they don't posses any level of intelligence is wild .
27.
by tskj 4mo ago
Because you can have it review itself and iterate on its own work before showing you. If you insist on reviewing its one-shot output you'll be disappointed, but if you consider its internal work private and only consider its final outp
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by tskj 4mo ago
The universe. Anyway, I accept this usage of the word "lesson", so I also accept "learnings". My point was one of hypocrisy, not policing people in how they can use the word "lesson".
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by tskj 4mo ago
Hmm yes, I had it backwards. I agree this is very statistically significant, but the effect size is tiny. Up from random chance to a mere 60%, means that Scott proved with high statistical significant that people reliably cannot tell. Als
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by tskj 4mo ago
I'm not sure I understand your argument. If you want an exponentially more expensive training run for each iteration, obviously you need to raise investments even if each training run is profitable. Now I'm not saying that's

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