spyckie2

8 ms·

1.
by spyckie2 4d ago
Is there a risk of an AI that we can’t turn off?
2.
by spyckie2 5d ago
I think you're missing the point, which is not that every human interaction is worth preserving, but that convenience has a hidden cost. People would rather not spend time and effort to help their neighbors. People would rather not pic
3.
by spyckie2 29d ago
lol a customer literally types in “Seth Godin” on the internet and gets to the product. But for some reason Amazon sponsored ads is a toll booth BLOCKING the merchant from meeting the customer unless the merchant pays 1 dollar??? How exactl
4.
by spyckie2 29d ago
Respectfully, this is nonsense. The consumer experience I have is that Amazon sells products at lower prices with better quality, support, variety and transparency than pretty much every other store out there. Sponsored products do not damp
5.
by spyckie2 2mo ago
It’s kind of true but also kind of silly. True in that frontier models do have the capability to outperform all other models, but silly because AGI self improvement is itself an iterative process that takes a lot of compute. So you can imag
6.
by spyckie2 2mo ago
I wonder if they waited for the new TPU generation to train a larger base model.
7.
by spyckie2 2mo ago
Google seems to have anorexia when it comes to model intelligence. They have an internal hard constraint on price per token it seems, and they are trying to squeeze out intelligence with limited compute. I wonder if there is something with
8.
by spyckie2 2mo ago
Competition is a good thing for consumers.
9.
by spyckie2 2mo ago
Thanks corrected it. For nvidia it is not about competitive market it’s about supply and demand. A different subset of microeconomics.
10.
by spyckie2 2mo ago
It’s important that none of these entities can collude to price fix. Having China be the competitor ensures that. Basic microeconomics is still the easiest way to understand token economies. How is it not a competitive market (where profits
11.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
PE has two definitions, the first is its structure as a private business investment. Pensions did not create this business structure, it has existed forever. The second definition is the subset of PE that is systemically buying businesses a
12.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
Slavery is profitable. People only stopped doing it when it was perceived as immoral. Lots of things are profitable but immoral. People will do crazy immoral and illegal stuff for money, but we outlaw and slander the more abusive stuff, lik
13.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
To clarify the main point is it is wrong but because it affects old people no one wants to crusade against it. It has the perfect moral excuse to hide behind.
14.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
I think, if you were to say there is a way where you can take $10b and have that money make more ROI with less risk than $1000 can, people would look at it and scream this is broken let’s policy this out of our economy. It defies all laws
15.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
The irony is that PEs exist largely because of pension funds. So to sum it up (not so nicely) we are transferring value from our current standard of living to pay for retirement checks for our old folks. Pensions fund a significant part of
16.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
Its probably that in 1 or 2 years local (free) models will completely take the place of cheap models so cheap models need to move up the quality chain. You have free local models for most tasks, $20 subscriptions for near-frontier intellige
17.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
I think this is a valid point, but if the talent pool shrinkage was truly a threat to your academic institution are you really going to just watch? And the argument is that research funding is coming back but just not to MIT. So I think it
18.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
Respectfully, comparing a janitor's 401k to a $27.4 billion endowment is (very) tone deaf. But yes, the tax goes against "keeping sacred systems sacred" principles and is an opinionated policy against rich entities that the c
19.
by spyckie2 4mo ago
Any other institutions outside of academia that has a 20+ billion endowment that earns 4 billion a year? And 500 grad students at what 50k per year for funding is what 25 million? They really couldn’t hedge the risk with their own money if
20.
by spyckie2 5mo ago
Take away the hype and OpenAI / Anthropic are covering themselves with money and lighting themselves on fire to see who can make the bigger bonfire...
21.
by spyckie2 5mo ago
It is officially the 2010 Google era at Anthropic (the era where Google released tons of new products and spread themselves too thin). Anyone remember Google's social media platform??? Google Plus? This is a good era to be in! Its the
22.
by spyckie2 5mo ago
Hard to say, but the fact is the intelligence was there and now it's not. Maybe they are giving Sonnet, or maybe a distilled Opus, or maybe Opus but with lower context, not quite sure but intelligence costs compute so less intelligence
23.
by spyckie2 5mo ago
The thing that inspires my writing is that the best sentences are self evident. Meaning you declare it without evidence and it feels so intuitively right to most people. It resonates, either being their lived experience, or being the inevit
24.
by spyckie2 5mo ago
haha it is poorly written, its one of my pieces with the fewest drafts, i just wrote it and clicked submit to get the thoughts out of my head. I think he is referring to the art of refining an idea though, which I do have something to say o
25.
by spyckie2 5mo ago
> It's been funny watching my own attitude to Anthropic change, from being an enthusiastic Claude user to pure frustration. You were enthusiastic because it was a great product at an unsustainable price. Its clear that Claude is now
26.
The era of models is over, we are in the era of harnesses(sustainableviews.substack.com)
9 points by spyckie2 5mo ago|1 comments
27.
by spyckie2 7mo ago
dang why did I click, they are gorgeous...
28.
by spyckie2 7mo ago
> Writing is on the wall that orders of magnitude fewer people will be going to [product] or using [product] in the next 5 years though. counterpoint: which service or product is immune to this statement?
29.
by spyckie2 7mo ago
I mean their ads business just broke $80b per quarter, not sure where this idea is coming from...
30.
by spyckie2 7mo ago
Well, would you have a better standard of living with $0 or $1000 when you retire? Even if that $1000 used to be worth $10000, that $0 is still worth $0.

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