sl8r

6 ms·

1.
by sl8r 2y ago
I left the TENET references on the cutting room floor. I too found it really surprising that the reverse-time equation has a simple closed form. Like, surely breaking a glass is easier than unbreaking it? That’s part of what got me interest
2.
by sl8r 2y ago
The production of tears is left as an exercise to the reader. /s Thanks for reading. The 2D simulation section might be more interesting on a first read — it makes the math less mysterious, I hope!
3.
by sl8r 2y ago
Hey, I’m the post author — thanks for reading. Theta represents all the model params — all the weights in the neural network. The convention is to write theta for the “learned” score function and omit theta for the “true” score function.
4.
by sl8r 2y ago
Hey! I’m the post author. Highly recommend Sander Dieleman’s blog for alternative interpretations https://sander.ai/2023/07/20/perspectives.html I personally find the SDEs the most intuitive, and the determin
5.
by sl8r 3y ago
> This has been the promise over and over again, for centuries, and it has consistently not paid off. Where's the predicted society where automation allows us all to work for two hours a day, and spend the rest at leisure? In the “S
6.
by sl8r 5y ago
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-w...
7.
by sl8r 5y ago
I'm not saying that crises aren't predictable — I'm pointing out that institutional failure isn't always a leading indicator (as in OP's argument).
8.
by sl8r 5y ago
what major institution failed in the early stages of [1] the japan asset bubble or [2] the dot com bubble? Or farther back, the 1840s railroad mania or the south sea bubble? credit bubbles often pop when some institution can't cover it
9.
by sl8r 5y ago
Interestingly, they’re actually used all the time in LBO models. Because the default is to sweep all FCF to pay down debt, but then the interest expense is dependent on FCF, which depends on the interest expense… Sort of a trivial example b
10.
by sl8r 5y ago
I made a streamlit app about Kelly last year, showing how to bet when you have an "edge" over a toy market of coin flippers: https://kelly-streamlit.herokuapp.com/ Other references I found interesting: - Cover
11.
Log Optimal Betting – An interactive demo of the Kelly criterion(kelly-streamlit.herokuapp.com)
4 points by sl8r 6y ago|1 comments
12.
by sl8r 6y ago
If you're interested in this, check out Cover's Information Theory textbook — the rabbit hole goes much deeper. One of the most interesting examples, is that when you're betting on a random event, Shannon entropy tells you ho
13.
by sl8r 7y ago
Won't you possibly get some information about some passengers by doing this, if you know / can figure out the distribution of the random numbers? E.g., say that the random numbers are uniformly distributed between -200 and 200. If
14.
by sl8r 7y ago
* "the dream machine" is an fascinating, joyful account of jr licklider's work in interactive computing * "hard landing" makes the airline industry seem tumultuous and exciting * "a man for all markets" is
15.
by sl8r 7y ago
FWIW, I think the best "applications" (if they can be called that) come from domains like algebraic topology and algebraic geometry, where some concepts come up so frequently that it's useful to formalize them in category the
16.
by sl8r 7y ago
Although, to play devil's advocate, you can prove results with set theory that you'd care about even if you weren't super interested in foundations, usually by playing with different cardinalities. E.g.: Call a real number &q
17.
Zero to Cohort Analysis in 60 Minutes(data.valorep.com)
2 points by sl8r 7y ago|0 comments
18.
by sl8r 8y ago
I mean... the parent post is right, the site I linked seems to be calculating CA state tax incorrectly. But: 42% is the effective tax rate (not marginal, average). And this is pretty close to 45%. For a hypothetical person making $500k or m
19.
by sl8r 8y ago
Some of these reported salaries would come close to that, if you include social security and medicare: For a $500k income in CA 29.59% Federal Income Tax + 10.48% CA Income Tax + 1.59% Social Security + 1.99% Medicate ------
20.
by sl8r 8y ago
Late to the party, but: > Both the historical and the control bucket used version A of the website, and they are consistent in their 2.0% conversion rate. Version B is different, and it appears to have a different conversion rate of 2.5%
21.
by sl8r 8y ago
> Why would that be wrong? The issue is that modeling B with a distro centered around 2.5% ignores what we know about the historical conversion rate (2.0%) and the control bucket's conversion rate (also 2.0%). If our goal is to make
22.
by sl8r 8y ago
Part of the issue is that you can't not assume a prior; it's unavoidable. The Bayesian POV just makes this assumption clear / explicit, while many frequentist methods (if naively applied) amount to choosing a uniform prior.
23.
by sl8r 8y ago
This is probably because Howard Marks popularized the idea under that name in "The Most Important Thing". He looks like FS's main source in the detail piece ( https://www.fs.blog/2016/04/second-level-
24.
by sl8r 9y ago
One interpretation of Kelly is maximizing the e.v. of the log return. Another (equivalent) interpretation is maximizing the expected IRR -- which is where the "in the long run" comment comes in, since "in the long run" y
25.
Cheap Recurring Payments with Stripe and AWS Lambda(normal-extensions.com)
299 points by sl8r 9y ago|124 comments
26.
by sl8r 9y ago
Twitter had $2.5B of revenue in FY '16. The average user with more than 10k followers probably only has slightly more than 10k followers (because the distribution of followers/user has most of its mass near 0), so the average rev.
27.
by sl8r 10y ago
""" As a financial analyst at an investment bank, or a research analyst at an economic consulting firm, your job would be in serious jeopardy if you produced 538’s model output without a clear explanation of how those fat tai
28.
by sl8r 10y ago
Several comments allude to liquidation preference / stock-participation for preferred stock holders. While both of these terms do bite into the common share stake, as others have pointed out, their effect is model-able; so you can see
29.
Probabilistic Business Models(carried-interests.com)
1 points by sl8r 10y ago|0 comments
30.
by sl8r 10y ago
Others have already made this point[1] but to me, SolarCity has some aspects that make it look like more of a of a tax-arbitrage business than a solar panel retail business. It reminds me a bit of the ethanol blending tax credit, which led,

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