skepticATX

7 ms·

1.
by skepticATX 8d ago
This discounts the human breakthroughs needed to get to this point, the cost of the employees working in it, previous attempts, and more.
2.
by skepticATX 9d ago
The saddest part of this is no one actually cares about the proof itself. Does it prove what it claims to prove? Were new mathematics invented? Can this be applied to other areas? I don’t have a problem with labs solving hard problems if th
3.
by skepticATX 1mo ago
About 2% of finasteride users experience these side effects, and they are reversible after discontinuation.
4.
by skepticATX 3mo ago
> Why aren't employees more honest about AI and concerns regarding it Because it’s being pushed by the c-suite and board, so most people aren’t in a position to push back. And it’s a quasi-religion now, so even pushing back at all c
5.
by skepticATX 3mo ago
Yes, I am exhausted. Most of my company is obsessed with agents, because everyone wants to be seen as AI first. There is little thought going into usage. No care for long term maintainability and quality. Our product is actively worse by ma
6.
by skepticATX 3mo ago
Maybe I am missing it, but I don’t see where AI solved anything in this anecdote. Rather, a team of medical professionals and a patient willing to advocate for herself did.
7.
by skepticATX 3mo ago
The reason that I’m looking for an out is that it’s turned everyone I work with into imbeciles. Nobody wants to think anymore. Coworkers are now just intermediaries for their LLMs. Talking to them is just talking to the LLM - sometimes dire
8.
by skepticATX 6mo ago
You generally don’t assign work to an intern just for the output, though.
9.
by skepticATX 7mo ago
Reviewing code is absolutely different from writing it, and in my opinion much harder if the goal is more than surface level understanding. This is what I am still grappling with. Agents make more productive, but also probably worse at my j
10.
by skepticATX 7mo ago
One explanation is that this is effectively a quid pro quo, given Brockman’s enormous financial support of the current president.
11.
by skepticATX 7mo ago
So much software just flat out doesn’t work that people don’t even notice how bad X has gotten.
12.
by skepticATX 7mo ago
I actually think that plateauing is the best case scenario for big labs. I think there are three broad scenarios to consider: - Super-intelligence is achieved. In this scenario the economics totally break down, but even ignoring that, it’s
13.
by skepticATX 11mo ago
This seems roughly equivalent to liability insurance.
14.
by skepticATX 11mo ago
It’s much easier to accept fatalities caused by other humans because there is someone to hold responsible. Will autonomous vehicle companies be held responsible when they cause fatalities? It also goes beyond just the total number of fatali
15.
by skepticATX 11mo ago
I think the more interesting question is who will be on the panel? A group of ex frontier lab employees? You could declare AGI today. A more diverse group across academia and industry might actually have some backbone and be able to stand u
16.
by skepticATX 11mo ago
How is this not a terrible deal for Microsoft? I’m not confident that an “expert panel” will prevent OpenAI from prematurely declaring AGI.
17.
by skepticATX 1y ago
This was really a bad release for OpenAI, if benchmarks are even somewhat indicative of how the model will perform in practice.
18.
by skepticATX 1y ago
Never heard of those either. And I took the highest level math courses offered. The only competition I can remember is participating in is Academic Decathlon.
19.
by skepticATX 1y ago
I’m in the US but this was a while back, in the south. It was a highly ranked school and ended up producing lots of PhDs, but many of the families were blue collar and so there just wasn’t any awareness of things like this.
20.
by skepticATX 1y ago
OpenAI’s systems haven’t been pure language models since the o models though, right? Their RL approach may very well still generalize, but it’s not just a big pre-trained model that is one-shotting these problems. The key difference is that
21.
by skepticATX 1y ago
I’m not trying to take away from the difficulty of the competition. But I went to a relatively well regarded high school and never even heard of IMO until I met competitors during undergrad. I think that the number of students who are even
22.
by skepticATX 1y ago
Has anyone independently reviewed these solutions? My proving skills are extremely rusty so I can’t look at these and validate them. They certainly are not traditional proofs though.
23.
by skepticATX 1y ago
Access to cheap goods may lead to short term satisfaction, but will never lead to long term fulfillment.
24.
by skepticATX 1y ago
Where are the expectations coming from? The major labs continually claim that these models are now PhD level, whatever that even means.
25.
by skepticATX 1y ago
The fact that so many feel the same way about this technology (I do too!) is an indictment of humanity, not the technology itself. We _could_ use this to empower humans, but many of us instinctively know that it will instead be used to crus
26.
by skepticATX 2y ago
The industry only has themselves to blame. When you promise literal utopia and inevitably don’t deliver, you can’t be surprised by what happens next.
27.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Listening to Satya in recent interviews I think makes it clear that he doesn’t really buy into OpenAI’s religious-like view of AGI. I think the divorce makes a lot of sense in light of this.
28.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Sad that 18F is gone and that USDS is effectively gone. I’d long had in the back of my mind that I’d take take a short sabbatical at some point and work for one of these organizations - looks like that’s not happening.
29.
by skepticATX 2y ago
How many still believe that scaling up base models will lead to AGI?
30.
by skepticATX 2y ago
They'd absolutely report on it. I consume news from many different conservative and liberal sources. NYT newsroom is still one of the best and while bias can't be completely eliminated, they are fair. The opinion section of course

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