peterbonney

7 ms·

1.
by peterbonney 16d ago
I’ll do it later
2.
by peterbonney 5mo ago
The total open interest of all major prediction markets is barely over a billion dollars. (1) That's the total amount of money currently wagered on ALL contracts across all platforms. There are roughly 2,500 individual companies listed
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by peterbonney 5mo ago
I had the incredible good fortune to take one of his classes in college, and I loved it so much I took another just to learn from him again. A tremendous intellect AND an incredibly engaging and talented instructor. It would be an exaggerat
4.
by peterbonney 7mo ago
I’m not saying it is definitely a hoax. But I am saying my prior is that this is much more likely to be in the vein of a hoax (ie operator driven, either by explicit or standing instruction) than it is to be the emergent behavior that wou
5.
by peterbonney 7mo ago
Correct, I haven’t set it up that way. That’s my point: I’d have to set it up to behave in this way, which is a conscious operator decision, not an emergent behavior of the bot.
6.
by peterbonney 7mo ago
Well I lol’d :)
7.
by peterbonney 7mo ago
Yes, this is the only plausible “the bot acted in its own” scenario: that it had some standing instructions awaiting the right trigger. And yes, it’s worrisome in its own way, but not in any of the ways that all of this attention and engage
8.
by peterbonney 7mo ago
Of course it’s capable . But observing my own Openclaw bot’s interactions with GitHub, it is very clear to me that it would never take an action like this unless I told it to do so. And it would never use language like this unless unless I
9.
by peterbonney 7mo ago
This whole situation is almost certainly driven by a human puppeteer. There is absolutely no evidence to disprove the strong prior that a human posted (or directed the posting of) the blog post, possibly using AI to draft it but also likely
10.
by peterbonney 9mo ago
My understanding is that the existence of the nuclear triad is entirely about maximizing the likelihood of maintaining a second strike capability in the event of a preemptive nuclear attack, thus providing mutually assured destruction even
11.
by peterbonney 9mo ago
I like this piece. Doing hard things for the simple reason that they're hard is good for the psyche. I truly believe that.
12.
Meta's Pivot from Open Source to Money-Making AI Model(bloomberg.com)
9 points by peterbonney 9mo ago|2 comments
13.
by peterbonney 10mo ago
The devil is really in the details on how the orders were executed in the backtest, slippage, etc. Instead of comparing to the S&P 500 I'd love to see it benchmarked against a range of active strategies, including common non-AI app
14.
by peterbonney 11mo ago
Having selected a 401k provider for a small (<15 person) company and also for a larger (>100 person) one, I can say that the big names make it prohibitively expensive for small companies to use them. And that expense ultimately comes
15.
by peterbonney 11mo ago
"weird, overconfident interns" -> exactly the mental model I try to get people to use when thinking about LLM capabilities in ALL domains, not just coding. A good intern is really valuable. An army of good interns is even more
16.
by peterbonney 11mo ago
You're right, my view is way out of date. I didn't realize CBOE had grown so much in straight equities trading. IEX is the best of the rest, but it's NYSE, NASDAQ and (to my surprise) CBOE as the clear top 3.
17.
by peterbonney 11mo ago
I'd say IEX has done remarkably well - it's not likely to displace NASDAQ or NYSE but it has solidified its place as the #3 US exchange by any reasonable measure. If TXSE achieves comparable market share I'd call that a wild
18.
by peterbonney 1y ago
Exactly. Government entities have a funny habit of making their own decisions about what (and who) is and is not subject to their jurisdiction.
19.
Horizon Overlay: open-source Cluely(github.com)
1 points by peterbonney 1y ago|0 comments
20.
by peterbonney 2y ago
The more I learn about how AI companies trained their models, the more obvious it is that the rest of us are just suckers. We're out here assuming that laws matter, that we should never misrepresent or hide what we're doing for ou
21.
by peterbonney 2y ago
Thank you. The New York City subway has its issues, but most of them boil down to the fact that the system is really old and hard to modernize. It also has unique strengths arising from the extreme population density and the inherent 24&#x2
22.
The Myth of a Loneliness Epidemic(theatlantic.com)
3 points by peterbonney 2y ago|1 comments
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by peterbonney 2y ago
That might be the case in other cities, but in NYC the socioeconomic dynamics are less clear. It’s mostly affluent-to-rich suburbanites that drive to work from outside the city, with rich and poor city residents primarily taking public tran
24.
by peterbonney 2y ago
Pricing is hard, no question about it. One solution to the “not all users are equal” problem is to create different types of users and price accordingly. That’s what we’re doing, and it’s working out well so far. It depends on the product a
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by peterbonney 2y ago
If you looked at how the average accountant spent their time before the arrival of the digital spreadsheet, you might have predicted that automated calculation would make the profession obsolete. But it didn't. This time could be diffe
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by peterbonney 2y ago
Correct.
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by peterbonney 2y ago
I used to have an orchard with c. 35 apple trees, 2 of which were honeycrisp. I can confirm that they are tricky trees to manage. I was theoretically in a good area for honeycrisps. But the trees were prone to all sorts of maladies that did
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by peterbonney 2y ago
> Complicating this further is the fact that outcomes differ significantly across the U.S., with some leading hospitals able to keep twice as many 22-week-old babies alive as the national average, and occasionally able to keep babies bor
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by peterbonney 2y ago
Plausible result, but considering that this HN post is appearing on the same day as one of the top posts is about scientific fraud… let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I say it all the time: provocative experimental results should be consider
30.
by peterbonney 2y ago
My son was born _very_ premature, which gave me an intensive crash course on interacting with the medical system. I know two (mildly contradictory) things to be true about that experience: - My son would not be alive and healthy without the

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