peepeepoopoo97

5 ms·

1. 1.▲
   by peepeepoopoo97 2y ago

   Even if compute costs drop by 10X a year (which seems like a gross overestimate IMO), you're still looking at 1000X the cost for a 2X annual performance gain. Costs outpacing progress is the very definition of diminishing returns.
2. 2.▲
   by peepeepoopoo97 2y ago

   About 10,000 times the cost for twice the performance sure looks like progress is slowing to me.
3. 3.▲
   by peepeepoopoo97 2y ago

   Yes, that's exactly what I'm implying, otherwise they would have done it a long time ago, given that the fundamental transformer architecture hasn't changed since 2017. This bubble is like watching first year CS students try
4. 4.▲
   by peepeepoopoo97 2y ago

   O3 is multiple orders of magnitude more expensive to realize a marginal performance gain. You could hire 50 full time PhDs for the cost of using O3. You're witnessing the blowoff top of the scaling hype bubble.