oudlys

6 ms·

1.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Deal
2.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I'm happy to make that bet. Just not for money. I don't gamble at all anywhere in my life. But I'm happy to write something publicly like "Simianwords was right about this prediction and I was wrong". Also happy f
3.
by oudlys 3mo ago
>you took a single report that agreed with your statistics These are not my statistics. I'm not affiliated with Faros at all. I built an analysis on top of their reporting. And, it's also not one report. DORA has tracked sta
4.
by oudlys 3mo ago
>Understanding what is going on with AI productivity is … frustrating to say the least. Agreed. I think one of the hardest things about it is that productivity != value. You can push all the code you want, but if it's not driving
5.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I read this today and found it super valuable in evaluating METRs research. https://arachnemag.substack.com/p/the-metr-graph-is-hot-garb...
6.
by oudlys 3mo ago
March 2026: https://www.faros.ai/blog/ai-acceleration-whiplash-takeaways Faros would tell you shops are shipping 16% more PRs with heavy AI use. https://unessays.substack.com/p/talk-is-cheap I thi
7.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Wow. This deserves to be much more widely read. Thank you for this.
8.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Productivity != value. Thanks for the story.
9.
by oudlys 3mo ago
>This is a ridiculous stance to take. I encourage you to be more curious. We're just talking. We would learn more from each other without these strong statements.
10.
by oudlys 3mo ago
>Respectfully, your link is not very convincing. I'd love to understand why. This would be valuable feedback for me as I try to make my writing and exposition better. Also, if you have other data, that also would be valuable for m
11.
by oudlys 3mo ago
>"On unbounded measures, growth is exponential" Maybe. There was a great comment in the thread on Fable 5 yesterday about benchmark comparisons between Fable and the latest opus models. here it is: https://news.yco
12.
by oudlys 3mo ago
>This is basically a conspiracy theory I think this is pretty uncharitable, especially when I've provided you with a dataset you can evaluate yourself and an argument you can review for logical inconsistency. I have worked quite har
13.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Are we plotting against cost? How is the capability advancement vs dollars paid for development? By my read of the (very sparse) data, we're getting linear improvements in capability for super-linear increases in costs. [1] Indicates
14.
by oudlys 3mo ago
>So from a holistic perspective, I think intentionally limiting your own AI usage is the best approach for maximum long-term productivity. I think this is right. They are much better applied as editors than authors, IMO. The key thing i
15.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Is it bitter or is it beautiful? The idea that speed is the only thing that matters is a modern view that you can surrender any time you want. A child is a joy. Nothing is wrong with the child for needing 9 months to grow.
16.
by oudlys 3mo ago
By “break” I don’t mean “won’t function”. I mean “won’t deliver on their value proposition”. A functioning product is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for technology to have utility. I would defend vigorously that the generative
17.
by oudlys 3mo ago
The report was not paywalled for me. It just required a work email. Which is totally fair from my perspective. Faros is providing a ton of value with the report. People do deserve to get paid - even if in collected emails. You're r
18.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I'm quite fond of this play on "if a tree falls in the woods": "If an LLM builds a feature, and no one uses it, did it make value?"
19.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I appreciate you looking out. Thank you.
20.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I get wanting to wait for more data. And thinking that LLMs have improved enough that this will change. My view is that it's not really about how good the models are - it's about how we're using them. Understanding what you
21.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Sure. But that's not, in my view, how most people use the word productivity when describing LLM use. In my field - operations - productivity is usually described as some rate of production for a specific asset. 100 widgets / mac
22.
by oudlys 3mo ago
It scares me too. I actually think this is precisely the reason LLMs can't be the basis for a technological revolution. Because it's only one way. Like, if you have a compiler, and it has a bug. You can discover if that bug is i
23.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I think we mostly agree. I think I just disagree about the power of the LLM to deliver revolutionary innovation. That's something you do. Not the machine. And, pretty soon on your journey to scale, the LLM becomes a hinderance rather
24.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I think its worse than that. I admit that if a small team or an individual uses an LLM, it's likely they can create value faster. I think as soon as you don't own the responsibility for the defects you generate with an LLM, their
25.
by oudlys 3mo ago
It does depend on how you define productivity. But the way it's commonly used is "I'm going faster, personally, with these tools." The thing people I think have a hard time seeing is that "I go faster" does no
26.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Human brains can explain themselves. What's a black box about LLMs is that they can't. They don't know how they arrived. They didn't arrive at anything. They don't have access to their internal representations.
27.
by oudlys 3mo ago
There is an observational study that was published in March 2026 that followed 4000 teams over 2 years. It shows, in my view, exactly that the productivity gains don't translate into economic value. Here is the report: https:/&#
28.
by oudlys 3mo ago
I've posted numbers that indicate that productivity is becoming decoupled from value delivery. If you follow the link in my comment it reviews a pretty robust study of 4000 teams over 2 years. There is no product throughput increase.
29.
by oudlys 3mo ago
Productivity is not value. It's quite possible for you to experience productivity improvements, and actual value to not be created. That is what I think the most robust data is showing. https://unessays.substack.com/p
30.
Talk Is Cheap: The Operational Impact of LLM Use(unessays.substack.com)
35 points by oudlys 4mo ago|23 comments

More ›