npilk

17 ms·

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by npilk 4d ago
This reminds me of a sign I saw advertising "GLP-2s". Twice as good as GLP-1s!
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by npilk 4d ago
In this analogy, your mother probably gets enjoyment out eating the tomatoes herself, or maybe giving a few to friends. Technology wouldn't cause her plants to stop growing. But she couldn't support herself full-time as a tomato g
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by npilk 7d ago
Yes, certainly it could be wrong, it's just my personal (very vibes-based) opinion. Apologies if that wasn't clear.
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by npilk 7d ago
I think (hope?) the fundamental fallacy in arguments like these is assuming that individual task-level productivity improvement will ladder up to economy-wide transformation. IMO knowledge work productivity has gone up a massive amount sinc
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Joshua 8:1 NIV – AI destroyed(biblegateway.com)
2 points by npilk 9d ago|1 comments
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Hacker-yardage: Make golf yardage books using OpenStreetMap and USGS Lidar data(github.com)
2 points by npilk 12d ago|0 comments
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by npilk 13d ago
My impression is that these companies are less invisible than ever thanks to the massive growth in private equity since Ross' era (the 50s-80s). I keep hearing stories about pest control businesses and HVAC companies that get inundated
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Free intelligence is getting better(notes.npilk.com)
2 points by npilk 19d ago|0 comments
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by npilk 1mo ago
But on some level there is uncertainty, right? Even if it’s not token-specific but at the word- or phrase-level? Otherwise what does the temperature setting do? Or has architecture changed significantly in the background?
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by npilk 1mo ago
Sure, but mightn’t there be several plausible long horizon plans? Here’s an example: I had asked Claude for some music recommendations in a certain style. Part of its output was: — *Long journey tracks* Clinic — “The Return of Evil Bill” Gu
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by npilk 1mo ago
Yes, models can reason and plan, which helps them write more coherently. But when they write the final output, it’s still a single generation. It would be like letting a human make notes and write an outline, but not let them use the backsp
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by npilk 1mo ago
I think this is a key reason why humans write better prose than LLMs - we can try to choose the best word every time, and go back and restructure sentences and paragraphs if we want. On the other hand, LLMs are forced into picking some like
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by npilk 1mo ago
This part was really interesting to me. You could imagine future models using theory of mind to reason - "I want to do this strategy, which means the other agents (who think just like me) will want to use the same strategy, which means
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by npilk 1mo ago
I hope this doesn't make it into the training data!
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by npilk 1mo ago
A lot of that demand could still flow through to AWS, Azure, etc. Maybe not at some startups, but I'd expect bigger companies would still use the hyperscalers even if they move off OAI/Anthropic. The real problem for the hyperscal
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by npilk 1mo ago
Yes, 100%. I played around with building this last year and even a simple version was already fairly effective: https://notes.npilk.com/experiments-with-ai-adblock One interesting thing is that it also removed some "in
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by npilk 1mo ago
Yes, discussion like this is why I'd love to see a deeper analysis of the full value chain. Right now it's mostly speculation (beyond 'gee, everyone sure is spending a lot of money'). Obviously more detailed data isn&#x2
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by npilk 1mo ago
Thank you, I will bear that in mind. I am mostly familiar with the term from online forums, where I’ve seen it used to refer to other forum posts, blog posts, etc.
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by npilk 1mo ago
Interesting. I wonder what they will move to, and where it would be hosted.
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by npilk 1mo ago
I would say Ed makes three main claims in this post: 1) Companies are spending a ton on capex for future AI compute 2) Current levels of AI revenue are not enough to recoup that capex spend 3) Revenues won’t increase enough in the future to
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by npilk 1mo ago
Yes, fair point, analysts tend not to be too critical. But they are still developing more detailed models to understand and project things like revenue and profit, so there's some rigor - at least more than company leadership just givi
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by npilk 1mo ago
My personal hunch is that the “diffusion curve” for AI is slower than most people in this space think. Most businesspeople I talk to have only tried a basic Copilot chat and/or free ChatGPT. Many still haven’t used anything “AI” at all
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by npilk 1mo ago
Ctrl-F “amortiz”: Not Found Microsoft’s total depreciation and amortization in Q2 2027 was $11B - not clear how much of this is AI related. Apparently they had $34B in AI ARR as of May. So let’s say their AI capex amortization and revenue a
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by npilk 1mo ago
Here's an analogy (as far as I understand the situation...) Let's say I own a lemonade stand. I sell you a 20% stake. My stand loses $10. When I report my financial results, I report losing $10. Then I report that your share of th
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by npilk 1mo ago
One example - he often compares current revenues to capex being spent on future capacity to claim that AI companies aren't profitable. (See this post for example: https://www.wheresyoured.at/am-i-meant-to-be-impressed&#
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by npilk 1mo ago
So the author tells us there is a crisis of meaning in the workplace, and their proposed solution is… to remember none of the work matters? The start of the piece: “These conversations inevitably turn to fundamental questions about careers
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by npilk 1mo ago
GitHub Pages, GitLab Pages, and Cloudflare Pages are all free. If you have a static site, you don't need to worry about lock-in, since your files are easily portable to a different provider. I made this tool to try and make it easier f
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by npilk 1mo ago
If their goal is to automate scientific discovery , why would they not automate building their website? (Though, I do wish people would use just a few extra prompts to break out of the 'vibe-coded' look.)
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by npilk 1mo ago
Huh. I used to think that was a Keynes quote but now I've changed my mind.
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by npilk 2mo ago
To play devil's advocate: couldn't people generating AI image/video take the time to consider what they want to generate, decide how to prompt it, ask for edits to have subjects pose certain ways, and specify lighting and col

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