muggermuch

10 ms·

1.
Your Evals Will Break and You Won't See It Coming(wanglun1996.github.io)
3 points by muggermuch 4mo ago|0 comments
2.
by muggermuch 6mo ago
Sort of! We came up with a backronym just in case: Scenario Oriented Reasoning and Outcome Simulations.
3.
Soros: The anatomy of an agentic geopolitical simulation engine(asksoros.com)
6 points by muggermuch 6mo ago|4 comments
4.
by muggermuch 6mo ago
A few days ago, we soft-launched Soros [0], our agentic intelligence for geopolitical simulation, on HN. [1] In this post, we walk through everything: how we designed it, the engineering stack, how it works, what we perceive as flaws. Every
5.
by muggermuch 6mo ago
> because this is marketed as being for macro investing, I would expect to see a level of rigor and quantitative analysis consistent with that. Thanks for bringing this up - while we talk about Soros' forecasts and comparing them ag
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by muggermuch 6mo ago
First, thank you so much for signing up to try out Soros! You are absolutely right, of course, to ask about accuracy. TL;DR: we don't have any formal calibration data yet. The reason why is interesting, though, and it strikes at the he
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by muggermuch 6mo ago
Exactly! That's how it works - the static demo is just that, static. Would love to onboard you for the full thing if you'd like! Just LMK (team@lookbacklabs.com) or add your info on the site
8.
by muggermuch 6mo ago
> So someone monitoring Polymarket could have reached the same conclusion? Maybe? If they are professionally trading prediction markets, I'm pretty sure that would be the case. Polymarket especially is a great source of insider trad
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by muggermuch 6mo ago
Hmmm, good question. I think one interesting incident for us was when we saw scenario probabilities being updated near last Friday EOD for the US-Iran conflict, biased towards further kinetic action by the US around Kharg island (?). This w
10.
by muggermuch 6mo ago
* This brings us to a larger question - why did we build Soros? First, let's address the elephant in the room: we were inspired by George Soros' theory of reflexivity and how human tendencies affect markets more prominently than e
11.
Show HN: Soros – AI for geopolitical macro investing(asksoros.com)
26 points by muggermuch 6mo ago|10 comments
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by muggermuch 7mo ago
Absolutely heart-warming to see some of the gentle tech titans of yesteryear still actively releasing products.
13.
Every book recommended on the Odd Lots Discord(odd-lots-books.netlify.app)
189 points by muggermuch 7mo ago|65 comments
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by muggermuch 8mo ago
This scenario is oddly terrifying.
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by muggermuch 1y ago
This is amazing - just the tool I needed; thank you so much!
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by muggermuch 2y ago
Cool anecdote, thanks for sharing!
17.
by muggermuch 2y ago
Good to see you here, Dave! Glad you decided to open source LLM Catcher.
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by muggermuch 2y ago
I like this a lot! But: I feel the more of these services come to being, the more likely it is that every website starts putting up gates to keep the bots away. Sort of like a weird GenAI take on Cixin Liu's Dark Forest hypothesis ( ht
19.
by muggermuch 2y ago
As a Harper's and Lapham's Quarterly subscriber, I have been a huge fan of his quirky editorial style. Specifically, I'd like to call out his podcast ("The World In Time"). Its past episodes remain treasure troves o
20.
Building a chess playing agent using DSPy(medium.com)
7 points by muggermuch 3y ago|0 comments
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AI Foundation Model Development Cheatsheet(fmcheatsheet.org)
1 points by muggermuch 3y ago|0 comments
22.
A Definition of Open-Ended Learning Problems for Goal-Conditioned Agents(arxiv.org)
1 points by muggermuch 3y ago|0 comments
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Ring attention with blockwise transformers for near-infinite context(arxiv.org)
47 points by muggermuch 3y ago|20 comments
24.
by muggermuch 3y ago
> in Oshiro, i had met a guardian of time, a man who, year after year, preserved a slice of japan's essence, ensuring that even in the heart of its busiest city, the song of the bush warbler would never fade away. There was a lump i
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Open Challenges in LLM Research(huyenchip.com)
163 points by muggermuch 3y ago|72 comments
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by muggermuch 3y ago
As per the Massive Text Embedding Benchmark (MTEB) Leaderboard maintained by Huggingface, OpenAI's embedding models are not the best. https://huggingface.co/spaces/mteb/leaderboard Of course, that's fa
27.
Mojo Language: Similarities/Differences with Nim(forum.nim-lang.org)
2 points by muggermuch 3y ago|0 comments
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by muggermuch 4y ago
It's changed my life. A few months ago, I wrote a post [0] talking about my experiences designing and building an ML-powered stock picking engine for my startup - the post went viral on HN, and it led to many fascinating conversations,
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by muggermuch 4y ago
I have been following your blog for a while now - it's been quite instructive on ways to speed up LLM-based tasks. All the best with your launch!
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by muggermuch 4y ago
This looks extremely useful! Thanks a ton.

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