mrshadowgoose

10 ms·

1.
by mrshadowgoose 10d ago
The arms race is an intrinsic game theoretical property of a multi-adversarial-actor scenario involving exponential growth of a universally potent technology. It's almost certainly winner-take-all, on a global scale, which behooves eve
2.
by mrshadowgoose 10d ago
This is not an impulse reaction, as I've thought deeply about this for many years, and I'm quite resolute in holding the following view: Quibbling over the academic nature/definition of "true intelligence" is a terr
3.
by mrshadowgoose 12d ago
Look up "mechanistic interpretability" in the context of LLMs. The next token prediction machinery is just a foundation for a higher order learned structure that appears to encode specific concepts, regardless of input language. T
4.
by mrshadowgoose 25d ago
In areas of applicability where GenAI to now considered to be good/great, the pattern I've observed is a frighteningly rapid progression from "abjectly terrible", to "middling and mostly more trouble than it's
5.
by mrshadowgoose 3mo ago
The conclusion of this blog post is a bit hysterical. The intent of this steg is excruciatingly clear (identifying usage by Chinese firms that may be conducting model distillation). It's unclear on how this "punishes normal develo
6.
by mrshadowgoose 6mo ago
And even if that's true (and it frequently is!), detractors usually miss the underlying and immense impact of "sleeping dad capability" equivalent artificial systems. Horizontally scaling "sleeping dads" takes decad
7.
by mrshadowgoose 6mo ago
> Not "hidden", but probably more like "no one bothered to look". Well yeah. There weren't enough "someones" available to look. There are a finite number of qualified individuals with time available to
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by mrshadowgoose 7mo ago
It's doom and gloom because the underlying game theory forces all state actors into an unbound and irresponsible arms race, consequences be damned. AI development game theory is extremely similar to the game theory behind nuclear arms
9.
by mrshadowgoose 11mo ago
Unfun thought experiment: In an AGI scenario, what lever of power do the UBI recipients have to force what you've described? Historically, humanity's biological monopoly on the fundamental resource of "general intelligence&qu
10.
by mrshadowgoose 11mo ago
I used to think that "AI operating in meatspace" was going to remain a tough problem for a long time, but seeing the dramatic developments in robotics over the last 2 years, it's pretty clear that's not going to be the c
11.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
Do you genuinely believe that this is a binary decision, or is this just anti-euthanasia rhetoric disguised as concern trolling? Offering humane end-of-life options to people suffering today does not prohibit ongoing disease research toward
12.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
> You're talking about two different things. No, you've actually missed his point entirely. He is alluding to the fact that over the last decade or so, consumers have unwittingly slid down the slope of "not having true con
13.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
A black hole in our solar system is basically "in our backyard" in relation to typical interstellar distances. Sure, we wouldn't be able to get there for many decades, but "within a century" would be feasible. There
14.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
Yes, I am quite aware that the current generation of space-based telescopes are quite limited. And it's solely due to the historically extreme cost of mass to orbit. The largest proposed ground observatories already use segmented mirro
15.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
> Isn't one of the nice aspects of astronomy is that you can do quite a bit as an amateur with some decent equipment and a nice vantage point? What value does this fleet have to these people? It doesn't, and admittedly I don&#x
16.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
I actually use this exact example when encouraging careful attention to paradigms where a fundamental variable is slowly but consistently changing. It's essentially equivalent to a boundary on a phase diagram: Cost/Watt has fallen
17.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
I am entirely convinced that absent LEO comsat constellations, people who espouse this sentiment would likely be whining about "useless astronomy taking money away from helping poor people". If you genuinely care about the field o
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by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
Trains don't have guaranteed personal space, nor do they proceed from one's origin directly to their destination. You might not value that, but lots of other people do.
19.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
I've always felt that trying to pin down the precise definition of AGI is as useless as trying to pin down "what it means to truly understand". It's a mental trap for smart people, that distracts them from focusing on th
20.
by mrshadowgoose 1y ago
Strong emphasis on "seems". I'd encourage you to review the definition of "brute force", and then consider the absolutely immense combinatoric space represented by the grids these puzzles use. "Brute force&quot
21.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
This is highly unlikely to be a mechanical limitation of the robotic arms. As others have said, it's likely an inference speed limitation - their model is understanding, reacting, and producing outputs as fast as its supporting hardwar
22.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
Depends on one's goals. If simply hooking up is the objective, although it's disingenuous/dishonest, this would improve one's odds.
23.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
> You can't run when it's rainy/snowy/etc, so more downtime. Waymo vehicles don't work in the rain? This is easily verifiable as false. You really have a tough time with being wrong, don't you?
24.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
Sorry, that's goalpost moving. Just reminding you of your earlier claim: > AI is not good enough yet for anything requiring deep reasoning, mission-critical work... Is driving a mission-critical function? Due to its safety critical
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by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
> The way you know fully autonomous driving is nowhere near ready How do you reconcile this claim with Waymo's dramatically increased rate of expansion these past few years?
26.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
> We don't understand human cognition despite literally thousands of years of thought and study Is this a requirement for achieving AGI? The history of progression of the ML field indicates that the answer is "no". We don&
27.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
At the start of 2021, "we are entering another AI winter" was a common sentiment, even here. People proclaiming that were so very certain about that point of view, and yet, here we are. What makes you so certain that we will enter
28.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
I don't give a rat's ass about whether or not AI reasoning is "real" or a "mimicry". I care if machines are going to displace my economic value as a human-based general intelligence. If a synthetic "mimicr
29.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
> We already produce more than enough for economic liberation all over the world, many times over. It hasn't happened. Why? Because directing material resources towards that end requires a certain aggregate amount of willing/al
30.
by mrshadowgoose 2y ago
Ah yes. I believe this is commonly called "moving the goalposts".

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