jonbecker

7 ms·

1. 1.▲
   The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets(papers.ssrn.com)

   2 points by jonbecker 1mo ago|0 comments
2. 2.▲
   by jonbecker 8mo ago

   If we weight by contracts purchased the gap is 1.02%, dollar weighted the gap is 1.00%. I'm glad you enjoyed the paper :)
3. 3.▲
   by jonbecker 8mo ago

   super interesting, re: spending money to move the line is just another form of non-profit-seeking "consumption." i didn't filter for manipulation specifically, but i did find that politics was actually one of the most efficie
4. 4.▲
   by jonbecker 8mo ago

   i understand how probability works. the "93 cents" vs "43 cents" comparison is looking at realized historical data, not theoretical odds. if the markets were efficiently priced, you would get 100% back. the entire point
5. 5.▲
   The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets(jbecker.dev)

   233 points by jonbecker 8mo ago|187 comments
6. 6.▲
   by jonbecker 8mo ago

   tl;dr dataset: 72.1m trades and $18.26b volume on kalshi (2021-2025) core findings: longshot bias: well documented longshot bias is present on kalshi. low probability contracts are systematically overpriced. contracts trading at 5 cents onl