jjxw

7 ms·

1.
The Agony and the Ecstasy: One Year on the Full Time Poker Tournament Grind(thehobbyist.substack.com)
3 points by jjxw 7mo ago|0 comments
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by jjxw 11mo ago
To be fair, 1k hands is a pretty meaningless sample - I think most pros would say you need at least 50k if not 100k hands for the results to be any reliable signal as to whether or not a player is actually winning or losing in the long run.
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by jjxw 2y ago
Turns out most day traders are eaten alive. There's one study a few years ago that looked at Brazilian day traders and found 97% of traders that traded for more than 300 days were unprofitable [1]. I imagine this is due to a combinatio
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Markets Are Information – Beating the Sportsbooks at Their Own Game(thehobbyist.substack.com)
3 points by jjxw 2y ago|0 comments
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by jjxw 2y ago
I think it depends on the audience. I have some closer friends that I would be comfortable taking a more aggressive communication style because they know my intent is to help them and sometimes people do need someone to shock them into maki
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by jjxw 2y ago
I think it's great that you had the conviction and risk taking appetite to find success and in retrospect be able to say it was the "right" choice for you. I also think there's some great advice in there about benchmarki
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by jjxw 2y ago
Yeah, agreed, love the Plain Bagel and the generally sane takes from that channel. "Get rich" is definitely too broad of a target and probably has too many connotations with "mansion and luxury cars" when, as you identif
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by jjxw 2y ago
This is a point worth clarifying. I think a lot of people actually do get rich investing. It just turns out the "good process" in this case is leaving your money in a diversified portfolio for decades. This leverages making a bunc
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Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind(thehobbyist.substack.com)
103 points by jjxw 2y ago|95 comments
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by jjxw 3y ago
Reminder for folks who go to concerts or other events / areas that regularly have loud sounds - invest in ear protection! It is probably not worth it to risk your hearing for a slightly "better" listening experience. You will
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by jjxw 3y ago
I found this one [1] pretty interesting - finding a raise with top pair weak kicker is not intuitive. There is some solver work in this video which is probably overly technical for a casual observer, but will give a bit of flavor on how pok
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by jjxw 3y ago
Why does anyone choose to play any game instead of another? Catan has a chance element to it, isn't that gambling to try to win the game? Why not play something completely deterministic? For the record, we also do play Catan and other
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by jjxw 3y ago
The vast majority of people who play poker do not play it for the "high stakes, smoky rooms, and martinis". Speaking for myself, I regularly play for very low stakes with friends in my own place of residence and we enjoy it as bot
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by jjxw 3y ago
I enjoy chess and Formula 1 too! I think poker is broadly misunderstood to be a game of luck disguised as a game of skill when in reality it is very much a game of skill in the long run. The "long run" here being hundreds of thous
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by jjxw 3y ago
Fair enough, if you look down on games of skill which involve chance and wagering money then there's not much I can do to change your mind.
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by jjxw 3y ago
I meant zero sum in the closed loop of the game itself. Only one team can win, the reason why they are paid so much is because they have built an audience and the sponsors/teams are effectively built around advertising revenue and&#x2F
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by jjxw 3y ago
For poker it's actually negative sum at most venues outside of private games due to the fees taken by the organizer (i.e. the rake). But yes, point taken that at least within the closed system of the game poker is zero/negative su
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by jjxw 3y ago
Is this not also true for many sporting or competitive pursuits that are also effectively zero sum? For sports I suppose one could argue there are benefits to exercise and for other competitive games with professionals like chess there are
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by jjxw 3y ago
As a part time live tournament grinder who has a full time job it's always sobering to hear from full time grinders who end up quitting due to how tough the grind is. A couple of observations to add: 1) There is absolutely a huge edge
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by jjxw 3y ago
I was sort of curious about whether or not other non-pedestrian motor vehicle fatalities also increased and came across an interesting stat. It looks like overall passenger vehicle occupant fatalities have also increased [1] and, interestin
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by jjxw 3y ago
100% agree. Does anyone know of a word that means "retirement" without the "not working" connotation? I'm in the same camp as someone who is aspiring to "retire early", but it will be more of a "work
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by jjxw 3y ago
I don't think you can report some of those crimes online in other cities either. Houston ( https://www.houstontx.gov/police/online_report.htm ) doesn't let you report violent crime nor stolen vehicles. Miami (
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by jjxw 3y ago
Also important to note that "last year" includes the tail end of the pandemic where crime as a whole fell due to lockdowns. SF and NYC fall far below other, less dense, cities in the US such as Cleveland Ohio, Lansing Michigan, Ro
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by jjxw 4y ago
I think an interesting observation here is that the very thing that makes it difficult to get adoption of this product/data is the thing that makes the product/data valuable. Without the naive/narrative/entertainment bet
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by jjxw 6y ago
Prefacing this with the disclaimer that I work for Uber. This talking point completely ignores the fact that California Props are, BY DEFAULT, not amendable by the legislature unless otherwise specified. If anything this 7/8ths clause
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by jjxw 7y ago
It is fairly well documented that demand for road travel DOES work this way though and is different than demand for health care, waste disposal, and the internet. [0] There is strong evidence that building additional roadway capacity does n
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by jjxw 8y ago
Pricing for Bird looks like $1 to unlock and $.15 / minute to ride. I think it's not unrealistic to see utilization of at least 5 rides per day for $5 of revenue + average of 15 minutes per ride for the other $11 to get to $16 &#x
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by jjxw 8y ago
How is this any different than not tipping with cash? Everyone behind you in line can see whether you put anything into the tip jar. Or is it that there's some plausible deniability that you can claim with not having cash which isn&#x2
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by jjxw 8y ago
No, there's a distinction between cryptocurrency and the underlying blockchain technology. There are a number of applications of blockchain that are promising such as in settling financial contracts that don't require issuing a sp
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by jjxw 8y ago
The rules and guidelines which essentially subsidize auto ownership with public space that could be better utilized. The current state of scooters probably falls too far on the "unregulated" side of things, but I'm bullish on

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