jeduehr

7 ms·

1.
by jeduehr 5y ago
I especially enjoy reading this from the school newspaper of the University where fun goes to die (my alma mater). :)
2.
by jeduehr 5y ago
I will say this is something we've known for a while: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27885658/
3.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Hi, I want to apologize. I was the one who did not see that you from the very beginning said you did not put much stock into the lab theory, and I basically ignored that. I didn't see it. I also did not read closely enough some other t
4.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Hi you'll see elsewhere that I was very open about the fact that I, too, think an open and honest investigation from third parties is necessary. Seriously just search this page for "independent" or "investigation."
5.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Yep, all we can do is estimate probabilities with the extremely limited data on hand.
6.
by jeduehr 5y ago
And if you actually have been playing "devil's advocate" this whole time and don't believe the interpretation of facts that you've put forth, then that is very much "arguing in bad faith." You were not up
7.
by jeduehr 5y ago
All of this aside, the actual point I have been making the whole time is this: Do you think these two possibilities are equally likely? Do you think one is more likely than the other? Which? You say that you find the lab possibility not ver
8.
by jeduehr 5y ago
And you also don't have to take my word for it that virologists were concerned! See all these scientific review articles demonstrating that fact: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11779380/ https://pubmed
9.
by jeduehr 5y ago
And you also don't have to take my word for it re: China's problem with zoonotic transmission. Here are scientific review articles that demonstrate that consensus: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26654122/ h
10.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Also, I just want to reiterate here, we virologists have literally been saying this is going to happen from nature FOR YEARS. People like Michael Osterholm and Peter Daszak and Vincent Muenster and Ralph Baric and Shi Zhengli have been sayi
11.
by jeduehr 5y ago
But these are permalinks? This is like linking to a github. It doesn't just "disappear." Unless Reddit goes under, which is just as likely as StackOverflow or HN going under. At this point, with their market cap and increased
12.
by jeduehr 5y ago
yeah, not in the time frame available or with the tools available. It would either have to be some hidden virus that they all lied about, or somehow an unknown contaminant in their samples that then also disappeared when they looked. All ne
13.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Honestly, can't find it. It was in some random facebook group about this stuff, I joined a couple dozen as the pandemic went on, so hard to find which one and my activity log search isn't turning up anything. Sorry. :( I don'
14.
by jeduehr 5y ago
>Everyone knows that mutations that increase transmissability generally hurt morbidity. Is there some reason you think this supports zoonotic hypothesis? It is public knowledge RaTG13 was collected from a mine shaft where a similar virus
15.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Honestly it's really really hard to say for sure. It's not super likely, because we don't have the epidemiological data (increased deaths from non-influenza pneumonia at a large scale) to support that, to my knowledge. It&#x2
16.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Here are a lot of other experts (and surveys of experts) who agree the lab leak is less likely: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...
17.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Yes! And that is how most virologists (myself included) feel about this whole thing. Zoonosis is just a lot more likely.
18.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Hi, you're probably right it isn't possible to know 100% the origin at this point. All we can do is make probabilistic arguments. Inferences. Inductive reasoning. And that sort of analysis, occam's razor based on the least ne
19.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Hi, difference is I actually admit these things are possible and have happened before. But this event doesn't look anything like those other lab release events. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comme
20.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Best epidemiological and genetic evidence suggests it originated somewhere outside Wuhan and then became a serious outbreak there as it's a major population center. https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments&#x
21.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Yep, agreed on all 3 counts.
22.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Also, btw, month at the LONGEST for that ACE2 cloning. An experienced cloner using In-Fusion could probably do it in like a week. Or two weeks.
23.
by jeduehr 5y ago
>Your comments on mutation rates confirm that RaTG13 is not closely related to COV (we knew that) and imply we should expect to find a closer relative. Yet we haven't. And the paper you share argues (again) against your conclusions
24.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Sorry I accidentally linked to SH01 in here instead of the korean strain. here's the correct one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT039890 And here also is an Australian strain from the beginning of the pande
25.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Or to be fair, I should say: I will try harder next time, I guess. You can't please all of the people all of the time, but you can certainly make an effort. Right now I don't really see what specific criticisms you're making
26.
by jeduehr 5y ago
That's... Not at all the core argument. The core argument is actually one of occam's razor. Is such a recombinant /technically/ possible? Yes. How many new assumptions does it require? A lot. Lots of people who help cove
27.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Wow I also describe elsewhere how his understanding of the CGGCGG codon usage is truly flawed. It looks like these codons weren't actually there in the earliest sequences of the pandemic, but evolved over time as the virus adapted to u
28.
by jeduehr 5y ago
Hi, I have no way to verify if that is the true reason, but also no reason to doubt it. I will say DDOS attacks on scientific databases are not that uncommon. This is the same reason that a lot of scientific publication data are now hosted
29.
by jeduehr 5y ago
>Fixation relies on selection, which is entirely different in a laboratory environment than in a population with immune systems. This is actually extremely controversial. There's a great deal of evidence that random walks are more i
30.
by jeduehr 5y ago
> If memory serves, that was a single generation. An rdrp produces one error per thousand bases, which comes out to 30 mutations per generation, so we're talking 40 generations away? That hardly seems significant. Hi I made this exa

More ›