fergussimpson

6 ms·

1.
by fergussimpson 5y ago
Just so we're clear, you no longer consider this to be a fallacy if by 'high' we use the median as a reference point? "I am more likely to have been born in a high population country than a low population country" A
2.
by fergussimpson 5y ago
Ah I see, apologies, I understand your concern. If we define 'big' and 'small' as being above or below the average (mean) value, then you're quite right that it breaks down for many cases, like the one you gave. But
3.
by fergussimpson 5y ago
Precisely. I'm glad you took the time to understand. :)
4.
by fergussimpson 5y ago
Not so - the result holds for all feasible distributions.
5.
by fergussimpson 10y ago
Ah, but take a look at this chart: https://xkcd.com/1633/ For anything more than 10^6 km away and less than 10 metres in size, we just wouldn't see it. We have only just noticed some enormous lumps on Ceres, and i
6.
by fergussimpson 10y ago
Many results in science don't have practical applications. But the calculation relating to planet size can help us decide where to look for life.
7.
by fergussimpson 10y ago
Hmm that's unfortunate. How do I become un-dead?!
8.
by fergussimpson 10y ago
That's exactly how statistics works. You make a statement with some degree of confidence (often 95%) and fully expect to be wrong 5% the time.
9.
by fergussimpson 10y ago
If we are talking about alien life in general, I completely agree. But this calculation relates specifically to intelligent life. And from that collection we can deduce something, as explained in the website. The calculation assumes nothing
10.
by fergussimpson 10y ago
Indeed, in fact in most situations it's impossible to be both an ordinary individual and be in an ordinary group. Hypothetically, let's imagine there were 10 normal-sized planets with 10 people each, and 1 big planet with 1 millio
11.
by fergussimpson 10y ago
Thanks, I've fixed it now!