feral

7 ms·

1.
by feral 4y ago
I don't think I'd go this far. In the EMH people do still trade, it's just that only those with new information trade profitably. In the joke scenario, as a parallel, you just need the economist to model that there's a c
2.
by feral 4y ago
The Wikipedia page on three body problem shows many periodic patterns. There appear to be stable configurations for the 4 body problem too, even if the 4 masses are similar. Its not fair to say there's no periodic pattern possible with
3.
by feral 4y ago
I think "reach" here is used in the context of: "the extent or range of something's application, effect, or influence" So this article is talking about "to what extent did Irish culture/language/poetr
4.
by feral 4y ago
Zafka seems to be recommending "The Design of Everyday Things" here, from that link which appears mangled to me. (looks like there are many books with similar names!)
5.
by feral 4y ago
This is what I do, too. I'm not a big believer in making detailed notes during a 1:1 When necessary, I capture key points and action items in my phone while walking.
6.
by feral 4y ago
Not entirely the same, but since the pandemic and WFH, I've started doing a lot of my 1:1s while walking, voice only. I'd be really interested to know if anyone else has started doing this? Typically, both people walk, using good
7.
by feral 4y ago
> artificial neural networks aren't like actual neural networks or brains Just to zoom right in on neural networks: People often say this, and I never see a solid argument. I know very little about biological neural networks. Clearl
8.
by feral 4y ago
Yes, however we are reasoning probabilistically here. We're not making absolute statements about either new or old things. We're not saying any one new thing definitely won't last another 10 years, the same way we're not
9.
by feral 4y ago
I salute you, Thaumasiotes, great explanation.
10.
by feral 4y ago
>Does no rain implies streets are dry? It would, if the only thing that could make the streets wet is rain; ie if we were in a limited model where that was true. We're talking in the context of a limited model in this thread. My poi
11.
by feral 4y ago
> go "wow, I find this good and I think it will keep being around and good for a while". Sure, you can have a much richer model of the world than the Lindy model provides. >fact that it is young doesn't mean it is doome
12.
by feral 4y ago
I mean, the 'initial statement' we're talking about here was my hypothetical example, right?; just pretend I decided not to leave out "assuming constant speed" after I first wrote it, and we're good? Unless you
13.
by feral 4y ago
>saying Pareto distributions follow linear relationships No; not sure where you got that from. >For a product at T = 0, why would it be optimal to assume its lifespan would be T = 0 as well, rather than the average age of all products
14.
by feral 4y ago
But it does, if you assume constant speed. (I almost wrote that in my comment but decided it was too obviously implied to mention.) So if we assume that's implicit in my example, how does the Wikipedia page on the contrapositive help n
15.
by feral 4y ago
Absolutely there are real situations where the new stuff is going to last longer than the old stuff, even the old stuff that's been through a selection process. E.g. modern manufacturing techniques have improved overall longevity of a
16.
by feral 4y ago
Ok, so let's say discuss your formulation instead: Why can't we 'invert' it, just because it's statistical effect? Yes, in your formulation, some of the new things in the pool will go on to live a long time, while o
17.
by feral 4y ago
Disagree: even in your formulation, no 'quick jump' is needed. Your statement A:"The longer something has been around, the longer it will be around" is not the opposite of B:"the shorter something has been around, t
18.
by feral 4y ago
The original comment was: "So Artificial Intelligence is a superset of Machine Learning. What are some AI algorithms that are still in use, that is not Machine Learning" It seems we agree with Wikipedia that ML contains RL? It&#x2
19.
by feral 4y ago
Hmm, I don't see that. In the spirit of the cutting edge, any chance you could give me a chain-of-reasoning on that inference?
20.
by feral 4y ago
RL is generally considered as a type of ML. Eg Wikipedia: "Reinforcement learning (RL) is an area of machine learning " https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning
21.
by feral 4y ago
I think this is the idea you are looking for: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmogorov_complexity
22.
by feral 4y ago
I think there's lots of ways to formulate this to see how it's percolation. I'm not a percolation expert though so please call me out if you are, and I'm wrong: To sketch here: Consider R the reproductive number of a dis
23.
by feral 4y ago
What I mean is that R varies by disease (or for a given disease, according to interventions, etc). The size of the total epidemic varies sharply as R is changed in this way.
24.
by feral 4y ago
And, to give an example we've probably all become familiar with, this this is equivalent to how a disease becomes an epidemic as the R value crosses 1.
25.
by feral 4y ago
This is also broadly true in Ireland, (and I presume the UK). Among non-canoeists, 'canoe' can refer to a canoe or kayak, and people refer to "Canadian canoes" when they want to specify an open legged canoe. (Although si
26.
by feral 4y ago
> where a specific employee would boost profits by $100k This isn't a good model. Boosting your company's profit by 100k doesn't mean they can boost any company's profit by 100k. If they could, they'd capture a l
27.
by feral 5y ago
May be missing some subtlety, but at a quick read I would respond to this as: - The author has not deeply understood the subjective interpretation of probability, as widely used by bayesians, and applicable to this sort of reasoning - the a
28.
by feral 5y ago
> no possible blind study, Not sure I agree with this. I am definitely not saying this should be done, but as a thought experiment: Imagine you worked for Fitbit, and could choose to undercount steps slightly. You have a cohort of users
29.
by feral 5y ago
Firstly, that was 60 years ago. Second, I think thats misleading. The Irish military did scenario analysis on this in case they were asked, and concluded it was hopeless, if that's what you mean.
30.
by feral 5y ago
>do we mean that no-one is going to bomb or shoot people in the UK or Ireland to attempt to achieve a political objective No, that's not what we mean. War between the UK and the RoI, the actual states involved, is in fact pretty unt

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